UK prepares for food shortages in worst case scenario as Iran war continues

The UK could face some food shortages, including chicken and pork, by the summer if the Iran war continues in a worst case scenario drawn up by government officials.

A government source told the BBC it was planning for a scenario which would involve the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz and breakdowns in the supply of carbon dioxide. CO2 is used in the slaughter of some animals and in food preservation.

A spokesperson from the Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs said it would continue to work closely with businesses to tackle the impact of the war.

"Reasonable worst case scenarios are a planning tool used by experts and are not a prediction of future events", they added.

Food sector leaders have indicated they are more concerned about potential price rises than shortages.

The British Poultry Council said it was "reassured" that the government was establishing contingencies for CO2 if the effects of the war extend that far.

"Our members are not reporting any difficulties so far, but we are monitoring the situation closely," chief executive Richard Griffiths said.

The British Retail Consortium said it would expect the government "to be contingency planning for all scenarios", adding that retailers were experienced in managing supply chain disruption.

"However, the situation in the Middle East continues to add inflationary pressures at a time when retailers already face significant new costs from domestic policies," it said.

Speaking to Sky News earlier, Business Secretary Peter Kyle said the availability of CO2 was not a concern for the British economy "at this moment."

"Right now, people should go on as they are," he said.

The boss of Tesco has said there are no issues with food availability after the contingency plans were reported by the Times.

Ken Murphy said none of his growers, suppliers and manufacturers had raised any supply risks so far.

"We are not flagging any issues in our supply chain at this point... we're not seeing any availability issues. We are in very good shape."

Murphy would not comment on what may happen to food prices and said "we don't know what it's going to look like, because clearly this is a volatile, unpredictable situation".

Petrol and diesel prices have soared since the US and Israel launched wide-ranging strikes on Iran on 28 February, and Iran effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz - a crucial global waterway for oil and gas transport.

Iran's blockade has led to higher costs globally for fuel and fertiliser, both crucial elements of food production.

Last month, the government decided to shore up the UK's critical carbon dioxide supplies by temporarily restarting the Ensus bioethanol plant after it was mothballed in September.

The plant manufactures bioethanol, which produces CO2, and was shut after the government struck a trade deal with the US to remove a tariff on American ethanol imports into the UK.

A spokesperson for Ensus told the BBC: "We are confident we can continue to produce CO2 for the country's needs for the foreseeable future".

Chair of the National Preparedness Commission Lord Toby Harris said the state of the world means "we have to prepare for the unexpected".

"The likelihood is that shocks of this sort are going to become more common, more frequent in the future, so the more that we test how we manage under various sorts of scenarios, the better that's going to be," he told BBC's Radio 4.

Kevin White, international trade editor at The Grocer magazine, called the use of CO2 in the food supply chain "the input that nobody knows about, or cares about, until something goes wrong."

He told the BBC it was "pretty much inevitable that we're going to see inflation in food".

"Suppliers, farmers, hauliers... logistics operators, they've only got a thin margin and they can't really absorb any big price shocks, that's what drives inflation.

"I think without scaremongering, it's almost inevitable that the energy price shocks, and just the supply chain disruption that we're seeing... it's going to kind of feed into inflation across food and drink," he added.

Earlier this week, the International Monetary Fund warned that the war could plunge the global economy into recession, with the UK set to be the hardest hit of the world's advanced economies.

The National Farmers' Union has said that the price of cucumbers and tomatoes could rise over the next six weeks, with the cost of other crops and milk increasing in the next three to six months.

The Food and Drink Federation told the BBC its forecast was that food inflation would reach at least 9% by December.

And Jo Gilbertson, head of the fertiliser sector at the Agricultural Industries Confederation (AIC), warned that if farmers are put off making advanced orders for fertiliser due to rising prices it could have an impact on "planting decisions in autumn".

"That's when we end up with a potential food crisis, if the fertiliser and the fuel costs are too much," he told the BBC.

US President Donald Trump has suggested talks aimed at ending the war in Iran could resume this week, after negotiations collapsed at the weekend, prompting the US to blockade Iranian ports.

On Wednesday, Chancellor Rachel Reeves said the US made a "mistake" by ending diplomatic negotiations with Iran and entering into military conflict.

Additional reporting by Rachel Flynn