What does declining birth rate mean for Isle of Man?

The number of babies born each year on the Isle of Man has fallen by 45% during the last 15 years, according to a demographer who has spent half a century studying the island's population trends.

Paul Craine said births peaked in 2010 before going into a steady decline. Within the British Isles, he said the Isle of Man's numbers really stood out.

"That's clearly a very sharp downturn of births," he said. "I haven't seen anywhere that's had a sharper fall."

Craine said the falling birth rate was exacerbating the issue of a rapidly ageing population on the island.

The percentage of the island's population aged over 65 is now more than 22%, he said.

"That puts us around the top 10 of the countries on the planet, one of the oldest populations."

Censuses, held every five years since 2001, have tracked this shift.

"The population is changing shape remarkably," said Craine.

"Many young adults leave for university and do not return, which adds to the pressure."

It means there are far fewer people of working age generating the income needed to fund healthcare and other services required by a growing older population.

The generation born around the 2010 peak in births is now moving through school and starting to enter the workforce.

"The number of young people joining will now keep shrinking every year as smaller cohorts follow behind," warned Craine.

"The dip in births now will still be visible in the island's population data in 70 years' time."

Despite the falling number of births, the Isle of Man's overall population has kept growing, something Craine said was entirely down to people moving to the island.

"Our population is ageing and only inward migration is preventing depopulation," he explained.

Craine drew a distinction between a population that is simply smaller and one that is actively shrinking.

A smaller population that has settled at a stable size is not necessarily a problem, he said, but a population in ongoing decline is because it steadily erodes the customer and workforce base every business and employer relies upon.

Craine pointed to the island's last sustained population fall, between 1951 and 1961, when it lost about 12% of its population.

"The economy was hit very badly for a period of time," he said.

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