Tories pick themselves up off the floor with unexpected Scottish by-election win

Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch became a frequent flyer in the final weeks of the by-election campaign in Aberdeen South.

She visited the city three times for photo opportunities with her Scottish counterpart Russell Findlay.

She was back at Aberdeen Airport again today as she arrived to celebrate an unexpected victory over the SNP.

Badenoch has boosted her own personal approval rating in recent months, but the Tories as a party remain stranded behind Reform UK in the polls.

In terms of election results, the direction of travel has continued to be downward for the Conservatives - as confirmed in the Scottish Parliament and English local elections last month.

That was until today, and that win in Aberdeen South.

The Conservatives threw everything they had at this seat and, in the end, their candidate Douglas Lumsden won comfortably.

And the party may take as much encouragement from the fact they came second, less than 200 votes ahead of Reform, in the other Scottish by-election in Arbroath and Broughty Ferry.

The SNP won that one by a decent margin, but the increase in the Tory vote is a sign of effective campaign organisation from a party that should still be picking itself off the floor.

Looking ahead to the next general election, it looks like a big part of the battle will be convincing voters that they want to get rid of a Labour MP, and that the Tories are a better bet than Reform.

The Tories tested that tactical voting strategy against the SNP in these by-elections and will be pleased with the results.

There were specific factors at play in Aberdeen South that might not be repeated elsewhere.

Former SNP chief executive Peter Murrell's guilty plea to embezzlement charges is fresh in people's minds.

He is due to be sentenced next week. The ongoing fallout for the nationalists has not helped the party's brand.

In addition, Aberdeen is the heart of the North Sea oil and gas industry.

The Conservative campaign was built around the job losses the city is suffering with the steady decline of offshore drilling. It targeted Labour and the SNP over their continued support for the net zero agenda.

That message won't translate everywhere across the UK - and with the SNP first minister and both leading Labour leadership contenders suggesting it may be time for more North Sea oil and gas extraction, other parties are catching up.

It's a debate Reform UK has tried to own as well, but there was a sense that the party's attention was focused on the by-election in Makerfield rather than those in Scotland.

Where energy policy meets the cost of living, it does seem this is an issue where the Tories have the public's attention.

In sharp contrast with the result from Makerfield, Labour had a terrible night in Scotland, losing nearly 20% vote share in both seats.

For some in the party, the results will spell out the risk to Labour of going into the next set of elections without a change of personality at the top.

Even though they held on in Arbroath and Broughty Ferry, and have only just won a fresh mandate at the Scottish Parliament, the result in Aberdeen South also holds a warning for the SNP and its leader, John Swinney.

The two Scottish by-elections were called because SNP MPs were elected to Holyrood and had to give up their seats at Westminster.

One of them, the former SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn, has been put straight into Swinney's cabinet, but is widely believed to have leadership ambitions of his own.

Following the result, he tweeted it was "a tough night in Aberdeen that some will need to reflect on, quite heavily".

Who could he mean? Flynn hasn't said - yet.

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