NI's population is ageing rapidly - this is what it means for society

Northern Ireland's population is ageing rapidly with the number of people aged 65 and above projected to overtake the number of children by 2027.

The new projections from the NI Statistics and Research Agency (Nisra) suggest the population will start falling in 2031 due to a low birth rate.

There are projected to be more deaths than births in 2030 with that trend then continuing indefinitely.

The Nisra projections also suggest that the relatively high level of immigration seen in recent years will settle at a lower level.

Data for the UK as whole has already shown immigration falling from post-pandemic highs.

As society ages, the demands on the health services change.

A system originally built to provide episodic treatment is already struggling with increased demand from long-term conditions like dementia.

That trend towards a greater proportion of patients who have multiple, chronic conditions will continue.

Another challenge is that while life expectancy is increasing, "healthy life expectancy" is not keeping pace.

An older general population also means a shrinking pool of younger, working-age people to train and recruit as nurses, doctors and care workers.

Stormont's Department for Education has already made it clear that a falling number of children will mean schools being closed or merged.

According to the departments own projections, pupil numbers in schools are expected to fall by more than 12% over the next decade.

Smaller rural schools are facing a particular struggle to remain viable.

A key economic consideration is what is known as the "dependency ratio".

It is a way of assessing how many children and retired people are dependent on the economic output of the working age population.

In 2024, for every 1,000 working age people in NI there were 586 dependents.

That is projected to rise to 614 per 1,000 in mid-2049.

That is an increase of about 5% but more significant is the shift in the composition of that dependency.

For children, the ratio declines from 316 to 248 but for pensioners it rises from 269 to 366 per 1,000, a near 36% jump in the ratio of pensioners to workers.

If the ratio of workers to pensioners continues to compress, the tax base required to fund the rising healthcare and pension costs becomes increasingly strained.

That is a challenge beyond Stormont's competence and will have to be tackled at a national government level.

Statisticians looked at data on births, deaths and migration in 2024 and then projected that forward.

It should not be treated as a forecast and does not attempt to predict the impact that government policies or changing economic circumstances might have.

Instead it should be seen as a plausible range of scenarios which could happen if current trends continue.

The further out into time the projections are made the more uncertain they become.

While the population as a whole is projected to fall slightly over the next 25 years the population aged 65 and over is projected to increase by almost half (44.7%).

The increase in the population aged 85 and over is even more dramatic, projected to more than double (increasing by 126.1%).

This leads to a shift in the shape of our society.

In 2024 there were approximately 385,000 children (0-15) in Northern Ireland and about 164,000 people aged 75 and over.

Ten years later in 2034 that gap is projected to have substantially narrowed: 319,000 children and 207,000 people aged 75 plus.

The crossover point is projected as 2055 with the number of children just below 290,000 and the number of people 75 plus just above 291,000.