Michigan to decide bitter Senate Democratic primary in test for divided party

Michigan Democrats are to deliver their verdict in a bruising primary showdown that pits an establishment-backed congresswoman against a left-wing insurgent, exposing bitter divisions over the party's future.

Moderate four-term lawmaker Haley Stevens is presenting herself as the safe bet against former public health official Abdul El-Sayed, who has been channelling grassroots frustration with Washington politics.

The outcome of Tuesday's closely watched vote could shape the party's direction well beyond Michigan ahead of November's midterm elections.

The open Senate seat is a must-win for Democrats if they want to take control of the upper chamber of Congress and try to thwart Trump's agenda.

The seat is currently held by a Democrat who is retiring. The last time a Republican senator was elected in this Midwestern state was 1994.

But in presidential elections it's one of the crucial swing states - Michigan voted for Democrat Joe Biden in 2020 but for Trump in 2024.

Polls in the state open at 07:00 EDT (12:00 BST) and close at 20:00 EDT on Tuesday.

Whoever wins the primary will compete against Trump ally Mike Rogers in the midterm elections on 3 November.

For over a year, both Stevens and El-Sayed have been laying out starkly different visions for Michigan and for the country.

El-Sayed, who is 41 years old and the son of Egyptian immigrants, would be the first Muslim senator in the US, if elected.

He's been endorsed by leading left-wing politicians such as Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and New York City congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

El-Sayed has campaigned on issues such as Medicare for All, taxing billionaires, and abolishing US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).

Polling from the last year suggests healthcare costs remain among the top issues for voters this year, alongside the rising cost of petrol, groceries and housing.

El-Sayed's affordability platform - including his focus on health insurance - is why Michigan voter Les Lukacs is casting his ballot for him.

The longstanding Democrat, who does not have health insurance, said he would not vote for Stevens in November if El-Sayed lost the primary.

"We can barely afford groceries and gas," he said. "I have to make sacrifices - and healthcare is one of them."

El-Sayed told the BBC that if the Democratic Party had more concerns for everyday people "they'd be fighting on the same policies I'm fighting for".

Despite his left-wing stances, El-Sayed is not a member of the ascendant Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) wing of the party and rejects the socialist label as unhelpful.

But he is still taking lessons from his party colleagues who are democratic socialists, especially New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, whose social media prowess and focus on affordability helped propel him to victory last year in New York.

But while left-wing Democrats have seen a wave of victories during this summer's primaries - including in Colorado - it remains to be seen whether they can woo back disillusioned working-class voters who flocked to Trump in 2024.

Stevens represents a more pragmatic, centrist Democratic platform that the party's leaders hopes will appeal to voters on the fence.

"This may not be the moment for progressives," Colleen Houlihan, a 74-year-old from Ferndale, Michigan, who is likely voting for Stevens, told the BBC.

"I want radical change in the country, but we've got to start with this administration and it's got to be an electable candidate to get power back in sane hands."

Stevens, 43, has pitched herself as the more experienced and electable candidate.

She has earned the endorsement of Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, as well as outgoing Senator Gary Peters.

Stevens has campaigned on the promise of saving manufacturing jobs in Michigan. She also says she is better suited to take on Rogers in the general election, arguing that El-Sayed's left-wing positions would make him a weaker opponent.

In a statement to the BBC, a spokesperson for Stevens' campaign said the congresswoman would "fight for all Michiganders from every zip code to lower costs, protect manufacturing jobs, and take on Donald Trump's corruption and abuses of power".

She has also gone viral for her strong Midwestern accent, which has become a major topic of discussion in the race. She addressed the internet memes at a campaign rally, calling those that dissect her voice "coastal elites".

"Let's be real. They're making fun of Michigan," she said. "They're thinking they're better than us."

El-Sayed has also spoken out against US involvement in the Middle East, including aid to Israel.

Recent polling suggests a growing portion of voters think the US is too supportive of its longtime ally Israel in the wake of the Iran war.

The issue has resonance in Michigan, which is home to the second largest Arab-American population in the US.

El-Sayed has called Israel's actions in Gaza a genocide, which Israel denies.

He has also been quick to invoke his opponent's ties to Aipac (the American Israel Public Affairs Committee), which has spent almost $30m to back Stevens in the race.

Like many more moderate Democrats, Stevens is staunchly pro-Israel and has said she supports upholding US aid to Israel without conditions. She has also criticised Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, earning a rebuke from him in a CNN interview.

Cedric Erkins, a sheriff's deputy in Auburn Hills, Michigan, who has not decided his vote, is frustrated that the US "can afford to send billions overseas" when costs are rising at home.

While the Democratic Party has been mostly united against Trump's war in Iran, the Israel-Gaza war continues to present a dilemma for Democrats.

They have historically depended on votes from both the Jewish and Arab communities to win elections, said Larry Sabato, the director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics.

"They have to make a choice," he said. "Both sides are trying to make it as painful as possible."