What do the Irish by-election results mean for Sinn Féin?

What did Irish voters tell the political system when they headed into polling stations last Friday to vote in the two by-elections in Dublin and Galway?

Traditionally, government parties suffer in by-elections as the electorate use the ballot box as a form of referendum on the government.

This would mean Sinn Féin, the largest opposition party in the Republic, would return at least one - and be in the running for, if not win - both seats.

But for Mary Lou McDonald's party, it was yet another bad weekend of bad election results.

"No seat, ever, in any contest, is an easy seat to win," the Sinn Féin party leader told reporters at the RDS count centre on Saturday.

It is not unreasonable to expect the party leader to be able to bring in a second seat in their constituency. Taoiseach (Irish prime minister) Micheál Martin and Tánaiste (Irish deputy prime minister) Simon Harris have brought in second seats in their constituencies.

Dublin Central is a difficult constituency in its diversity, size and the vast differences in issues for constituents. Some areas are very wealthy, with houses costing over a million euro, but there is also a lot of social housing, especially in north inner city areas.

"Some voters in Dublin Central don't care too much about the real issues," said one Sinn Féin source who spent a lot of time canvassing on the ground in the run up to the by-elections.

"Some people complain about flower beds in traffic islands. You walk down the street and then people in the council flats are talking about how there is so much mould and damp that the light doesn't work in a bedroom, because there is water leaking down through it."

McDonald's own vote was so massive in Dublin Central in the 2020 general election that if she had a running mate, they would have likely been elected. Today is a far cry from those glory days.

The party's candidate, Janice Boylan, has been a longtime councillor. She reportedly nearly left the party several years ago but finally got to be the party leader's running mate in the 2024 general election.

This was to no avail, as she did not get elected and McDonald did not want her to run in this by election, according to a report in The Sunday Times - but the membership on the ground defied McDonald and chose Boylan anyway.

Even though she did well this weekend, she came second and it was not enough to beat the poll topper Daniel Ennis of the Social Democrats.

One Fine Gael advisor put forward the theory that "disillusioned" Sinn Féin voters were giving their number one votes to Gerry Hutch.

Gerard Hutch was found not guilty of the murder of David Byrne in 2023, who was killed at the Regency Hotel in 2016 as part of the Hutch-Kinahan gang feud.

When he was excluded and his vote redistributed, Boylan benefited more from Hutch's transfers than the Social Democrats or the Green Party.

Another political observer opined that wealthier voters in the constituency instead opted for the Social Democrats or the Green Party because of Sinn Féin's stance on immigration and the protests which brought Ireland to a standstill in recent months.

The party was not at the races whatsoever in Galway West.

Candidate Mark Lohan won 3,208 votes on the first count, which is much lower than the party's sitting TD Mairéad Farrell topping the poll in the constituency in 2024.

There was unhappiness among party members in Galway West over his inability to speak Irish, as a sizable chunk of the constituency is the Gaeltacht. Local media reported how some of the local Sinn Féin branch refused to campaign for him.

But TDs and party figures who spoke to BBC News NI insisted McDonald is not in trouble.

"She's safe as a house," said one source.

The conversation around McDonald's leadership intensified around the Ard Fheis several weeks ago, where she was re-elected as leader.

Similar questions are now again being asked by the media. As the party struggles to find its footing and feels under pressure as the Social Democrats fill the gap Sinn Féin has left - the house may not be as safe for too long.