Tattalin arzikin duniya na fuskantar barazanar koma baya idan yaƙin Iran ya ci gaba — IMF

Asusun Ba da Lamuni na Duniya IMF ya yi gargaɗin cewa tattalin arzikin duniya na iya shiga cikin matsanancin yanayi na koma idan rikicin da ke tsakanin Amurka da Isra'ila da Iran ya ci gaba, tare da ci gaba da hauhawar farashin makamashi.

A cikin rahotonsa na Hasashen Tattalin Arzikin Duniya, IMF ya bayyana cewa a cikin wanna mummunan yanayi ya yakin da aka cki, farashin mai da iskar gas da abinci zai iya tashin gwauron zabi ya kuma ci gaba da kasancewa haka har zuwa shekara mai zuwa, kazalika, ci gaban tattalin arzikin duniya na iya sauka ƙasa da kashi 2 cikin 100 a shekarar 2026.

Rahoton ya ce: "Wannan na nufin kusan shiga yanayin koma bayan tattalin arziki na duniya kenan, wanda ya faru sau huɗu kacal tun shekarar1980, na baya-bayan nan kuma a lokacin annobar COVID-19."

Hakan na zuwa ne yayin da farashin makamashi ya ƙaru sosai tun bayan barkewar rikici sama da makonni shida da suka gabata, bayan rufe muhimmiyar hanyar jigilar mai ta mashigar Hormuz da kuma gazawar tattaunawar zaman lafiya tsakanin Amurka da Iran.

Sakataren Baitul Malin Amurka, Scott Bessent, ya shaida wa BBC cewa ya cancanci a fuskanci ƙaramar wahalar koma bayar tatalin arziki idan hakan zai taimaka wajen hana barazanar Iran kai hari da makaman nukiliya kan manyan biranen ƙasashen Yamma.

Rahoton ya ce mafi munin yanayi zai iya faruwa idan farashin mai ya kai kimanin dala 110 a kowace ganga a wannan shekara, sannan ya ƙaru zuwa dala 125 a shekarar 2027.

A irin wannan yanayi, hauhawar farashi na iya kai wa kashi 6 cikin 100 a shekara mai zuwa, lamarin da zai iya tilasta bankunan ƙasa su ƙara yawan kudin ruwa domin dakile hauhawar farashin kaya.

Babban masanin tattalin arziki na IMF, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, ya shaida wa BBC cewa tsawaita rikici zai iya jawo hauhawar farashi mai tsanani da ƙara haddasa rashin aikin yi, tare da haifar da ƙarancin abinci a wasu ƙasashe.

To request:

1. Complete the translations here: https://tinyurl.com/bdh5kvma

2. Fill-in the commissioning form https://bit.ly/ws_design_form with this title in English:

Effects of the strait of Hormuz closure - 2026032702

Ya yi gargadi cewa ko da rikicin ya ƙare a yau, tasirin da zai yi wa samar da mai zai iya kai wa matakin da ya yi kama da rikicin mai na shekarun 1970, lokacin da ƙasashen Larabawa masu fitar da mai suka dakatar da sayarwa ga Amurka da wasu ƙasashe da ke goyon bayan Isra'ila a lokacin yaƙin Yom Kippur.

A wancan lokaci, wannan mataki ya jawo tashin farashin mai da kuma rikicin makamashi a duniya, wanda ya yi tasiri sosai ga tattalin arzikin ƙasashe da dama.

Sai dai Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas ya bayyana cewa yanzu duniya ta rage dogaro da mai da sauran makamashi idan aka kwatanta da da, don haka tasirin da zai iya shafar masu amfani zai iya zama ƙasa da na wancan lokaci.

Farashin mai ya kai kusan dala 120 kan kowace ganga a sakamakon rikicin Iran, kafin daga baya ya sauka, inda a ranar Talata farashin ganga ɗaya ya koma dala 98.85.

To request:

1. Complete the translations here: https://tinyurl.com/yb8d9ewp

2. Fill-in the commissioning form https://bit.ly/ws_design_form with this title in English: A very quick guide - Oil - 2026033101

IMF ya ce haɗarin koma bayan tattalin arziki zai ƙaru sosai idan rikicin ya ci gaba na tsawon shekara biyu.

Rahoton ya bayyana cewa idan aka kawo ƙarshen rikicin cikin makonni masu zuwa, kuma samar da makamashi da fitar da mai daga Gabas ta Tsakiya ya dawo daidai kafin tsakiyar wannan shekara, ci gaban tattalin arzikin duniya zai kai kusan kashi 3.% a 2026. Wannan ya yi ƙasa da hasashen baya na kashi 3.3, yayin da hasashen kaso 3.2 na shekara mai zuwa ya tsaya ba tare da sauyawa ba.

IMF ya kuma yi hasashen cewa ƙasashen da suka ci gaba za su fuskanci tasiri daban-daban, inda Burtaniya za ta fi shan wahala. An yi hasashen ci gaban tattalin arzikin Birtaniya zai ragu zuwa 0.8% daga 1.3%, kafin ta sake farfadowa zuwa 1.3% a shekara mai zuwa.

A ƙasashen masu fitar da mai a yankin Gulf, ana sa ran raguwar ci gaban tattalin arziki ko ma koma baya a wannan shekara.

IMF ya ce tattalin arziƙin Iran zai ragu da kaso 6.1 a bana, amma zai iya farfadowa da kashi 3.2 a 2027 idan rikici ya ƙare da wuri.

Qatar, wadda ke cikin manyan masu fitar da gas na LNG, ta fuskanci hare-hare, inda tashar Ras Laffan, mafi girma a duniya, ta lalace kuma ba za ta dawo aiki nan kusa ba. A sakamakon haka, IMF ya yi hasashen tattalin arzikinta zai ragu da kaso 8.6 a 2026, kafin ya dawo da ci gaban kaso 8.6 a 2027.

Iraq ma za ta fuskanci raguwar tattalin arziƙi da kashi 6.8 a bana, amma ana sa ran za ta farfado zuwa kashi 11.3 a 2027.

Rahoton ya jaddada cewa ƙarfin tattalin arzikin ƙasashe zai dogara da lalacewar ababen more rayuwa na makamashi da hanyar mashigar Hormuz, da kuma samun hanyoyin fitar da kaya na daban. Misali, Saudiyya na da bututun Gabas da Yamma da ke iya ɗaukar ganga miliyan 7 na mai a rana, wanda ke taimaka mata rage tasirin rikici.

Scott Bessent, sakataren baitul malin Amurka, ya ce ya fi damuwa da tsaro fiye da hasashen tattalin arziki, yana mai cewa barazanar nukiliya ta fi nauyi fiye da matsin tattalin arziki na wucin gadi.

To request:

1. Complete the translations here: https://tinyurl.com/33ueu9r6

2. Fill-in the commissioning form https://bit.ly/ws_design_form with this title in English:

Strait of Hormuz cards - 2026032502

Saudiyya za ta fuskanci koma bayan ci gaban tattalin arziki a 2026, amma ana sa ran zai ci gaba da ƙaruwa da kashi 3.1%, sannan ya ƙaru zuwa 4.5% a shekara mai zuwa.

IMF ya ce yawancin ƙasashen Gabas ta Tsakiya masu fitar da mai za su ga bunƙasar tattalin arziki a shekara mai zuwa, bisa tsammanin cewa samar da makamashi da jigilar sa za su dawo daidai cikin watanni masu zuwa. Sai dai ya yi gargadin cewa wannan hasashe na iya canzawa idan rikicin ya daɗe ko kuma an sake tantance irin barnar da aka yi.

IMF ya kuma yi hasashen cewa ci gaban tattalin arzikin China ya ragu a wannan shekara zuwa kaso 4.4% wato ƙasa da kaso 4.5 da aka yi hasashe a baya. kenan. Amma hasashen kaso 4 na tattalin arzikin a 2027 bai sauyi ba.

A gefe guda, Russia na daga cikin ƙasashen da ke cin gajiyar tashin farashin mai, inda ake sa ran tattalin arzikinta zai ƙaru da kashi 1.1 a wannan shekara da kuma mai zuwa, fiye da hasashen baya. Wannan na zuwa ne duk da takunkuman da aka sanya mata bayan ƙaddamar da mamaya kan Ukraine shekaru da suka wuce.

A watan Maris, Donald Trump ya sassauta wasu takunkumi kan fitar da man Rasha a lokacin da farashin mai ke ƙaruwa a duniya. Sai dai jami'an Tarayyar Turai sun yi gargaɗi kan sassauta irin waɗannan takunkumai.

Kwamishinan harkokin kuɗi na Tarayyar Turai, Valdis Dombrovskis, ya ce Rasha ta fara amfana daga rikicin.

Haka kuma, an ɗan sassauta takunkumi kan fitar da ganguna miliyan 140 na man Iran na tsawon kwanaki 30. Sai dai daga baya, Trump ya sanar da kafa shingen ruwa na Amurka a tashoshin jiragen ruwan Iran domin dakatar da fitar da man ƙasar.