Jasiiradda ay xiriirka dhow lee yihiin Somaliland oo ah waxa ugu wayn ee ay ku gorgortamayaan Shiinaha iyo Maraykanka ; Trump iyo Xi ayaa kulmi doona

Kulanka soo socda ee Donald Trump iyo Xi Jinping ee ka dhacaya Washington ayaa ah bartanka dareen diblomaasiyadeed oo caalamiga ah.

Wali cidna si hubaal ah uma xaqiijin karto in Xi Jinping uu dhab ahaantii cagta saari doono dhulka Mareykanka. Mid ka mid ah sababaha hubanti la'aantan ayaa ah arrin ay dhinacyadu si fiican uga warqabaan: Taiwan.

Ilo wareedyo dhowr ah oo ka warqaba xiriirka Mareykanka iyo Shiinaha ayaa sheegay in Beijing ay ku wargelisay Washington in Shiinaha uu doonayo inuu baajiyo shirka haddii Mareykanka uu ansixiyo lacag balaayiin doolar ah oo hub looga iibinayo Taiwan ka hor kulanka.

Donald Trump ayaa ku dhawaaqay inuu martigelin doono Xi Jinping iyo xaaskiisa xaflad rasmi ah oo ka dhici doonta Aqalka Cad Sebtembar 24. Wakaalado warbaahineed oo dhowr ah ayaa soo wariyay, iyagoo soo xiganaya sarkaal sare oo ka tirsan dowladda Mareykanka, in Madaxweynaha Mareykanka Donald Trump uu qorsheynayo inuu shaqsi ahaan u safro Saldhigga Ciidanka Cirka ee Andrews ee ku yaal Washington si uu u soo dhaweeyo Madaxweynaha Shiinaha Xi Jinping.

Waa dhacdo naadir ah in madaxweyne Mareykan ah uu si shaqsi ah u salaamo madaxweyne shisheeye garoonka diyaaradaha. Haddii la xaqiijiyo, waxay noqon doontaa markii ugu horreysay muddo ka badan 60 sano oo madaxweyne Mareykan ah uu sidan oo kale u soo dhaweeyo hoggaamiye shisheeye, marka laga reebo kiis gaar ah oo ku saabsan booqashada Baadari ee Mareykanka.

Miyuu xiriirka Shiinaha iyo Mareykanka ee ku aaddan Taiwan galay marxalad cusub?

Waxay u muuqataa in Beijing aysan ku qanacsanayn inay mar kale ku celceliso mowqifkeeda, balse ay isku dayayso inay arrinta Taiwan—oo ay ku jirto iibinta hubka loo dirayo jasiiradda— ay ku darto heshiiska diblomaasiyadeed ee Donald Trump ee 'faaida raadiska ku dhisan'.

Jonathan Sullivan, oo ah agaasimaha Machadka Daraasaadka Shiinaha isla markaana ah bare sare oo dhiga cilmiga casriga ah ee Shiinaha ee Jaamacadda Nottingham ee dalka UK, ayaa u sheegay BBC-da qaybteeda af-Shiinaha: "Ma nihin kuwo leh Trump wuxuu maskaxda ku hayaa heshiis weyn oo ku saabsan Taiwan; taasi ma ahan ujeeddadeenna haba yaraatee. Laakiin haddii ujeeddadiisu tahay inuu gaaro 'guul', tallaabooyinka uu qaadi karo si uu taas u gaaro ayaa ka ballaaran kuwii ay qaadi jireen madaxweynayaashii hore ee Mareykanka. Dabcan, arrintaasi waxay aad ugu xiran tahay heerka cadaadiska uga imaanaya dhinaca Shiinaha."

Shiinaha iyo Mareykanka ma waxay galeen heshiis ganacsi?

Waxaa wada-tashiyada u dhexeeya Beijing iyo Aqalka Cad ka muuqata in Taiwan ay weli u taagan tahay "khad cas" oo aan la dhaafi karin marka la eego mowqifka Beijing, balse qaabka arrintaas loola tacaalayo ayaa runtii noqday mid ku salaysan dano iyo wax-is-weydaarsi.

Wakaaladda Wararka ee Japan ee Kyodo ayaa sheegtay in Trump uu aad u doonayo inuu tallaabo weyn oo dhanka siyaasadda arrimaha dibadda ah ka sameeyo ka hor doorashooyinka dhexe ee bisha Nofembar, taasina ay tahay sababta uu muhiimad weyn u siinayo kulankan. Shiinuhuna wuxuu isticmaalay isla arrintan, isagoo su'aasha ah "in Xi Jinping uu tagi doono Mareykanka iyo in kale" ka dhigtay qodob gorgortan lagu galo.

Farriinta ay Beijing soo gudbisay ayaa asal ahaan la mid ahayd hadalkii rasmiga ahaa ee la soo saaray ka dib booqashadii Trump uu ku tagay Beijing bishii Maajo: Taiwan waa "arrinta ugu muhiimsan" ee xiriirka Shiinaha iyo Mareykanka, maamul-xumo kasta oo ku timaad arrintaasna "waxay horseedi kartaa iska horimaad ama xitaa dagaal." Farqiga u dhexeeyay ayaa ah in markan, arrinta iibka hubka ee Taiwan si toos ah loo soo hadal-qaaday—ma ahan digniin la bixiyay ka dib kulankii hoggaamiyeyaasha, balse waa ka hor inta uusan kulanku dhicin.

Lu Minghui, oo ah bare sare oo ka tirsan Jaamacadda Teknolojiyadda ee Nanyang ee Singapore, ayaa u sheegay BBC-da qaybta Shiinaha in laga yaabo inay goor hore tahay in la yiraahdo istiraatiijiyadda Shiinaha ee ku aaddan Mareykanka ayaa "si aasaasi ah u beddeshay" oo noqotay mid ku dhisan dano iyo gorgortan.

Wuxuu intaas ku daray: "Inkastoo Beijing ay runtii u socoto dhanka hab ku dhisan dano iyo gorgortan, isla markaana ay isku dayayso inay beddesho 'xariiqda cas' ee ku saabsan arrinta iibka hubka, haddana waxa Shiinaha welwelka ku haya waa sida ay arrintaas u arkaan dadweynaha caalamku. Haddii iibkan hubka ee Taiwan la ansixiyo xilli uu Xi Jinping ku sugan yahay Washington, waxay abuuri doontaa muuqaal aad u xun. Sababtaas awgeed, waxay u badan tahay inaysan Beijing diyaar u ahayn inay khatar u gasho arrin noocaas ah oo ay si toos ah u wajahdo Trump."

Sullivan ayaa sidoo kale sheegay inaysan Beijing si cad u tilmaami doonin wada-hadallada ku saabsan Taiwan inay yihiin kuwo ku salaysan "is-weydaarsi", balse dhinacyada oo dhan way og yihiin waxa uu Shiinuhu doonayo iyo waxa uu Trump u baahan yahay.

"Waxa ugu horreeya liiska mudnaanta Beijing waa in Mareykanku si cad uga soo horjeesto madax-bannaanida Taiwan," ayuu raaciyay. "Kadibna waxaa imanaya dib-u-eegis dheeraad ah oo lagu sameeyo heshiisyadii hore loogu galay iibka hubka ee Taiwan. Ka dib kulankii bisha Maajo, qaar ka mid ah heshiisyadaas hubka ayaa la hakiyay, waxayna u muuqataa inay weli jirto fursad lagu beddeli karo ama lagu hagaajin karo iibkaas."

Mowqifka Taiwan ayaa daciifay, balse weli waxay haysataa kaarar ay ciyaari karto.

Waqtigan xaadirka ah, Taiwan waxay isku aragtaa inay ku dhex jirto gorgortanka Beijing iyo Washington, iyo sidoo kale nidaam siyaasadeed oo gudaha ah oo dawladdu ay ku jirto tirada yar, mucaaradkuna ay ku badan yihiin. Bishii Maajo ee sanadkan, sharci-dejinta ay maamusho mucaaradka Taiwan ayaa hoos u dhigtay miisaaniyadda difaaca gaarka ah laga bilaabo qiyaasta bilowga ah ee NT$1.25 tiriliyan ilaa NT$780 bilyan, waxayna sidoo kale meesha ka saartay barnaamijyo qaar oo la xiriira hubka asaliga ah iyo awoodaha aan sinnayn.

Falanqeeyaha militariga Mareykanka David Axe ayaa hore u dhaleeceeyay dhimista miisaaniyaddan, isagoo sheegay in go'aanka noocaas ahi uu si wax ku ool ah uga dhigan yahay in laga tago awoodaha muhiimka ah si Taiwan loogu rogo "qalcad difaac."

In kasta oo sharci-dejinta Taiwan ay ansixisay xeerar ku saabsan nidaamyada hawada aan duuliyaha lahayn toddobaadyadii la soo dhaafay, haddana xisbiyada talada haya iyo kuwa mucaaradka ayaa weli isku khilaafsan qorshayaasha iibsiga hubka iyo habka dib u eegista miisaaniyadda.

Brian Hugh, tifaftiraha mareegaha wararka siyaasadeed ee madaxa-bannaan ee Taiwan Putu iyo aqoonyahan booqasho ku jooga Xarunta Daraasaadka Taiwan ee Jaamacadda Nottingham ee UK, ayaa u sheegay BBC Chinese: "Trump had iyo jeer wuxuu u muuqdaa inuu doonayo inuu isu muujiyo inuu yahay madaxa 'gorgortan weyn'. Markaa, marka laga eego aragtida Taiwan, fursadaha kala duwan ee madaxweynaha Taiwan runtii aad bay u xaddidan yihiin. Laakiin wuxuu si dadban u cadaadin karaa Trump isagoo adeegsanaya xiriirkiisa xubnaha kale ee Kongareeska Mareykanka, ama wuxuu isku dayi karaa inuu natiijada kama dambaysta ah u soo bandhigo gorgortan weyn oo Trump laftiisa uu ku ammaani karo."

"Laakiin si ballaaran, Trump wuxuu u muuqdaa inuu weli cadow ku yahay Taiwan wuxuuna door bidaa inuu la macaamilo Beijing, halka uu muujiyay rabitaan ah inuu si toos ah ugala xaajoodo iibinta hubka Taiwan, wax aan madaxweynayaashii hore ee Mareykanka aysan sameyn," ayuu raaciyay Hugh.

Sullivan wuxuu aaminsan yahay in waxa Madaxweyne Lai uu hadda sameyn karo ay aad u xaddidan tahay: Taiwan waxay ku dhawaad ​​dhammaan raasamaalkeeda siyaasadeed saartay Mareykanka, waxay buuxisay ku dhawaad ​​dhammaan dalabaadka Trump, haddana waxay sugi kartaa oo keliya inay aragto natiijooyinka ay hesho beddelkeeda.

Taiwan waa xarunta ugu horreysa adduunka ee wax soo saarka semiconductor-ka horumarsan, tusaale guul leh oo dimuqraadiyadda xorta ah, iyo xulafad daacad u ah Mareykanka.

Sullivan, isagoo eegaya saddexdan astaamood, wuxuu yiri: "Laba-da dambe malaha muhiimad weyn uma laha Trump. Waxa uu dhab ahaan danaynayaa waa 'kaararka gorgortanka' (chips), taasina weli waa faa'iido u ah Taiwan. Waxaa laga yaabaa inaan shir-madaxeedkan u dhexeeya Shiinaha iyo Mareykanka ku aragno waxa ay ugu dambeyntii dhalin doonto doorashada Xisbiga Dimuqraadiga ee Horumarka (DPP) ee ah 'maalgashi ballaaran oo lagu sameeyo awoodda ka-hortagga milateri iyo ku-tiirsanaanta Mareykanka'."