Why Nigeria one-time political giant fit face extinction

One time, dem be di ogbonge giant of Nigerian politics, but now di Peoples Democratic Party don find say dem dey fit no dey exist again.

One question wey dey hang ova di campaign for di January 2027 general election, wey officially kick off dis week, na weda di PDP go fit survive.

Internal gbas-gbos wey don end up for di courts ova who exactly dey in charge, fit end up making dem irrelevant for di ballot box.

Dis na serious fall for di party, founded in 1998, wey bin appear to stand gidigba for di end of military rule one year later - so much so dat di chairman bin boast for 2008 say dem go govern for six decades.

For 16 years, dem control di presidency - in di shape of Olusegun Obasanjo, Umaru Musa Yar'Adua and den Goodluck Jonathan - and di vast majority of di kontri 36 states.

But di 2015 federal election bring powerful shock.

Di PDP lose di presidential vote to Muhammadu Buhari and di newly formed All Progressives Congress (APC), wey be joinbodi of opposition parties and unhappy former PDP members.

Pushed into di political wilderness di party national leaders bin dey surprised - familiar with di trappings of federal power dem gatz work out wetin to do as opposition.

Dis na di beginning of di end, according to political analyst Ishaq Buhari.

"Dem bin be one party wey don dey so used to power, dat being in opposition na new challenge wey dem struggle wit from di start," e tell di BBC.

If 2015 na major blow, 2025 na di year di party foundations scatter kpata -kpata, sake of plenty defections and bitter internal conflicts.

One group of state governors switch party allegiance, and e bin get ogbonge devastating effect.

For di beginning of dat year, di PDP bin still hold eight states. But by December, five state governors - from Delta, Akwa Ibom, Enugu, Bayelsa and Rivers - don go ova to di ruling APC.

Dem cite di PDP declining viability and dia desire for better co-operation wit di federal govment as reasons for dia departure.

Early dis year, di PDP hold three states but dat wan don go down to zero - wit di Oyo govnorship slipping from di party hands just last month.

Now, di PDP don lose plenty high-profile figures and talent, including di loss of former Vice-President Atiku Aubakar last year.

Di crisis come dey even worse sake of di leadership tussle for di party.

For November 2025, one faction of di party, wey observers say dem represent majority of members, hold dia national convention for Ibadan, Oyo state, even though say court orders bin attempt to stop am.

Di convention expel Nyesom Wike, ogbonge PDP member wey dey serve for di President Bola Tinubu APC-led govment.

Wike, wey bin help found di party, come be di head of anoda rival faction to create political stand-off wey don paralyse di PDP.

E bin don controversially help di APC win Rivers state for di last presidential election leading to accusations say e betray di PDP.

But for di eyes of di law, di faction wey Wike dey head na im be di legitimate party.

Dis mean say dem fit submit dia list of presidential and parliamentary candidates to di electoral commission, wey come leave di rival faction without any representatives on di ballot.

Despite di chaos, some die-hard loyalists still remain optimistic.

Politician and staunch PDP member Aminu Adamu, part of di anti-Wike faction, believe say a return to dia former glory dey possible.

E cite examples from Thailand and Argentina, wia parties don bounce back afta years in di wilderness.

"We don see am happun bifor," e tell di BBC. "All we need to do na to put our house in order and start to build from dia.

"If we make all di necessary corrections, by 2032 I really think say PDP fit be major force again."

Odas point out say di party still get good grassroots network - wey dey essential to win and sustain power - wit offices, activists, supporters and local leaders. But by 2032 e fit dey too late.

Wit di party in so much disarray and candidates backed by Wike on di ballot - voters dey unlikely to trust dem.

Analyst Deji Olarenwaju believe say di only tin wey fit save di once-mighty party na alliance wit di African Democratic Congress - wey now dey seen as di biggest opposition group - or Peter Obi Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC).

"Bicos on dia own dem dey go no wia ," e tok.