There is nothing that is going to stop the coming Iran shockpublished at 09:15 BST

09:15 BST

Faisal Islam
Economics editor

Absent the Iran War impact, this is a good set of figures showing that the rate of inflation had been heading for target.

While the headline rate of inflation eased more than expected to 2.8%, underlying measures of price pressures, core inflation (2.5%) and service inflation (3.2%) fell abruptly in April to the lowest levels since before the Ukraine war started. Part of this is a specific strategy by the government to manage away the regular rise in regulated prices seen every April.

This is what the Bank of England watches carefully as a measure of the stickiness of inflation. Absent the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz there is every chance there would have been further interest rate cuts.

To be clear there is nothing that is going to stop the coming Iran shock seeing inflation rise, especially after July’s increase in domestic energy bills. This is most clearly seen in the pipeline of inflation, with a 75% increase for crude oil inputs.

The government has gone into overdrive on cost of living measures, with changes to Russian sanctions, judicial review on energy projects, possible changes to fuel duty and controversial talks on price freezes with supermarkets.

The underlying picture before the Iran War still matters, and offer hope that if the Iran war shock ends, that inflation is now less sticky.

Image source, Getty Images

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) says housing and household services made the "largest downward contribution" to both monthly and annual inflation figures.

The CPI inflation rate for housing and household services was 1.4% for the 12 months to April, down from 5.3% in the 12 months to March, driven by the fall in electricity prices.

Furniture and household goods saw a 0.8% drop in prices in the month from March to April - increasing just 0.5% since April 2025.

Some areas that remain above the inflation rate are transport and communication, which both saw prices rise by 4.5% in the 12 months to April.

This transport figure was largely led by motor fuels, with the war in Iran causing global oil prices to spike, leading to higher UK petrol and diesel prices.

The average price of petrol rose by about 17p to 156.8p per litre last month, according to the ONS, the highest since November 2022. Diesel prices rose by more than 30p in April to take the average price to 190p per litre, the highest average since July 2022.

Colletta Smith
Cost of living correspondent

Mary Sutherland is a stay-at-home mother-of-one. She says she knows “hardly anyone” who isn’t feeling the pinch at the moment.

“Our mortgage has gone up, just when we started having children we’ve suddenly got a bigger mortgage to pay and all of our bills have gone up," she says.

She says it “feels unfair” that a parent’s decision to stay at home or work and send their children to childcare “has to be a financial decision”.

“We would like to be able to manage on one income … [but] a lot of fellow parents are having to make difficult decisions," she says.

Wendy Martin is a pensioner living in King’s Sutton, a village on the border of Northamptonshire and Oxfordshire.

She says she is frustrated with the cost of petrol and fuel duty rates. “We rely on cars for everything - doctor’s appointments, hospital appointments, dentists," she says.

Martin says she would love to sell her car and “be a greener person” but the village has no public transport as their bus route was scrapped.

Hannah Mullane
Business reporter

We've seen the UK inflation rate come down today but food producers I’ve been speaking to say a rise in fuel and energy costs, as well and increased staffing costs, are making running a food business difficult.

Set Produce is a business that sells fresh fruit and vegetables to businesses across the country.

"We can absorb some costs going up but with fuel prices as they are and transportation being a big part of the business, it can be hard to absorb it all," managing director Ian Cheetham says.

"We’re seeing real fluctuating prices on the fruit and veg we’re buying too... if this continues you can see prices only going one way."

Prices had been easing in many areas in early 2026 - but the world has changedpublished at 08:30 BST

08:30 BST

Dharshini David
Deputy economics editor

These figures give a tantalising glimpse into another world. Take away the most volatile bills we face, the likes of food and energy, and so-called core inflation - covering items like clothes and days out - dropped back to 2.5% in April.

It’s a reminder of how price pressures had been easing in many areas in early 2026.

But the world has changed. Not only have higher diesel and petrol prices added significantly to our cost of living but there’s more to come.

Just take a look at an another official measure, producer prices, which looks at both the cost of raw materials and of items leaving factory gate. There, growing price pressures are all too evident – they will likely hit our shelves and pockets in the coming months.

But this month inflation figures, being slightly better than expected, do underline expectations that inflation won’t get anywhere near the rates we saw in the early stages of the war in Ukraine. First, because the rise in commodity prices has been less marked.

And second, in a stretched economy there is less capacity for inflation pressures to travel - both in the ability of companies to put up prices, and the ability of workers to score higher pay rises.

Treasury minister Dan Tomlinson says introducing caps on particular food prices "just isn't something we are looking at".

His remarks come after the BBC reported the government is urging UK supermarkets to limit food prices on key groceries, prompting criticism from retailers.

Tomlinson tells BBC Breakfast that the government has announced it is giving the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) more powers in response to economic crises.

He says ministers are always in conversation with supermarkets about steps that can be taken to support families.

Pressed on the easing of sanctions on some Russian oil, Tomlinson says that the UK has sanctioned more ships from Russia's shadow fleet than any other country.

He adds that the rules are changing "in a very specific and time limited way" and that the government remains steadfast in its commitment to Ukraine.

Liberal Democrat Treasury spokesperson Daisy Cooper says today's inflation figures, which saw a fall in the annual rate to 2.8%, "will provide little comfort to households and businesses struggling to make ends meet".

“Prices are still rising at an alarming rate and the threat of Trumpflation is hanging over people’s heads, as Trump’s idiotic Iran war continues to push up the price of essentials here at home," Cooper says.

She adds the government should support the UK's most vulnerable households with their energy bills and roll out a Lib Dem plan to reduce petrol prices by 12p per litre.

Image source, PA Media

Simon French, chief economist at investment bank Panmure Liberum, tells the Today programme the slowing inflation rate is due to "downward pressure on regulated prices" and the energy price cap.

"But that price cap will go up again in July," he says, adding that input cost inflation, which covers the cost of raw materials, fuels and services, is still rising almost 8% per year.

Due to these facts he says it is still expected that inflation will peak "around 4% by the end of the year".

Respite in inflation – but for how long?published at 07:34 BST

07:34 BST

Dharshini David
Deputy economics editor

A dual fuel price cap set some time before the war in the Middle East started, along with some government help, kept a lid on not just bills but inflation as expected.

Price rises in food and package holidays eased too - the latter reflecting the early timing of Easter this year. Those more-than offset other pressures - including petrol prices hitting their highest level in over three years.

However, just a few months ago, analysts expected inflation to hit the Bank of England’s target at this point. And even this limited respite in inflation is likely to be short-lived , as higher costs will continue to filter through to other items - from food to flights - but some impacts will take months to come through.

Economists predict that inflation won't get anywhere near the double-digit rates seen just a few years ago - but how high it goes will go depends on the as yet uncertain path of the conflict, and the help the government is preparing to unveil.

Yesterday it was confirmed that incomes are still outpacing inflation for most - but that too could change. Things will feel more stretched in the coming months.

Image source, Getty Images

Conservative shadow chancellor Mel Stride says the fall in the UK's inflation rate from 3.3% to 2.8% is "welcome" but that "prices are still rising far too fast".

"Labour have left our economy weak and exposed to the impacts of the Iran war," he writes on X.

He says a "recent spike in borrowing costs" show the markets are "increasingly worried" about uncertainty over Labour's leadership and its "economic mismanagement".

"Only the Conservatives have a leader with the backbone and strong team needed to restore confidence and bring debt down through our golden economic rule," he adds.

Image source, Getty Images

Chancellor Rachel Reeves says "we have the right economic plan" following the fall in UK inflation rate to 2.8%.

"To change course now would risk our economic stability and leave working people worse off," she says.

Reeves says the Iran war is "not our war but one we will need to respond to" and says the decisions she took in last year's budget "have kept inflation down as we deal with global instability".

"We have already taken £117 off energy bills, frozen rail fares, and lifted the two-child limit, and over today and tomorrow I’ll set out the next phase of how we will support UK households," she adds.

Jennifer Meierhans
Business reporter

ONS chief economist Grant Fitzner says the "notable fall" in April's inflation rate "was led by lower electricity and gas prices".

"This was due to the government's energy bill support package, along with lower global wholesale energy prices before the conflict in the Middle East, which fed through to the reduction of the Ofgem cap," he says.

But digging into the figures, there were other factors at play too - lower water and sewage bills and vehicle tax than seen last year also helped pull the rate down.

So did lower food prices, particularly for chocolate and meat, and lower costs for package holidays than the same period the previous year drove it down further.

However, the "annual cost of both raw materials and goods leaving factories continued to rise, driven again by higher crude oil and petrol prices", Fitzner adds.

Image source, Getty Images

Jennifer Meierhans
Business reporter

The fall in the inflation rate in April is more of a drop than analysts were expecting and it's partly down to the energy price cap kicking in.

On 1 April the government's cap on how much customers can be charged for each unit of gas and electricity fell by £117 a year, or 7%, from the previous cap which applied between January to March.

The UK's inflation rate has fallen to 2.8% in the year to April, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has announced.

That's a 0.5 percentage point fall from the 3.3% recorded in the 12 months to March.

Expect a lull before the storm continuespublished at 06:55 BST

06:55 BST

Dharshini David
Deputy economics editor

Price pressures may have heated up in some areas - but a fall in the domestic energy price cap in April, set some time before the Iran conflict started, may likely have helped keep a lid on inflation as well as bills last month.

But other things were creeping up - petrol prices hit 158p per litre in April - up almost a fifth compared to before the war, while diesel rose was up a third as global oil prices rose.

And higher costs will continue to filter through to other items - from food to flights - but some impacts will take months to come through.

So this is likely an inflation lull before the storm resumes.

Economists predict that inflation won't get anywhere near the double-digit rates seen just a few years ago - but how high it goes will go depends on the as yet uncertain path of the conflict.

For most, incomes are still outpacing inflation, and the support the chancellor is preparing to unveil may help some, albeit, we expect a very limited number. But things will feel more stretched in the coming months.

Image source, Getty Images

One method the government is using in an attempt to tackle rising prices is the easing of strict sanctions on Russian oil refined into diesel and jet fuel in third countries.

However, this change only comes into force today, so will not have impacted the inflation figures set to be announced by the ONS.

European jet fuel prices more than doubled after the war in Iran started, but are now around half higher while UK pump prices continue to rise.

While according to motoring firm the RAC, the average price of unleaded petrol reached 152.52p a litre on Monday, the highest since the start of the war.

The government said that overall sanctions had got tougher but extra flexibility was required. A similar move by the US was widely criticised.

• You can read more on this from our economics editor Faisal Islam here

The latest set of figures published on 22 April saw the UK rate of inflation rising to 3.3% in the year to March - an increase from 3% in the 12 months to February.

The data, which was collected in mid-March, is thought to have been affected by higher fuel costs from the war in Iran impacting global oil prices.

Figures due to be published today are expected to show an even greater impact from the Iran war.

Simon Jack and Emma Simpson
Business editor and business correspondent

Image source, Reuters

The government is urging UK supermarkets to limit food prices on key groceries such as eggs, bread and milk in return for easing regulations, the BBC understands.

It is understood the Treasury asked retailers to freeze price rises on certain products in exchange for an easing of packaging policies and a potential delay to rule changes around healthy food.

The British Retail Consortium (BRC), which represents supermarkets, has said the policy would "force retailers to sell goods at a loss".

A Treasury spokesperson said it wants to do more to keep costs down for families and it "will set out more detail in due course".

But the BRC has dismissed the policy as "1970s style price controls" while one retailer described the idea as "crazy" and the act of a "desperate" government.

Helen Dickinson, the group's chief executive, says there is already "fierce competition between supermarkets", which has driven down prices.

Read the full story

Before we get the figure here's a quick reminder of what inflation is and how we keep track of it.

Inflation is the increase in the price of something over time.

For example, if a bottle of milk costs £1 but is £1.05 a year later, then annual milk inflation is 5%.

The prices of hundreds of everyday items, including food and fuel, are tracked by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

This virtual "basket of goods" is regularly updated to reflect shopping trends, with alcohol-free beer, dashboard cameras, and pet grooming equipment among items added in 2026, while premium bottled lager, some categories of wine and sheets of wrapping paper were removed.

The ONS uses price changes in the basket of goods over the previous 12 months to calculate inflation.

The main inflation measure is called the Consumer Prices Index (CPI), external and the latest figure is published every month.