Monthly Outlook

Relief from the extreme heat and humidity will come this weekend and through the coming week. However, temperatures are likely to stay above average in many areas, although could fall close to seasonal values in Scotland.

Despite occasional rain or storms it should be mostly drier than normal.

Changeable and becoming cooler

Temperatures will begin to ease just a little on Saturday, although the south-east and east are going to stay hot with maximum temperatures again exceeding 30C. More of a cooling trend will start to become apparent on Sunday, and daytime highs should be in the mid-20s at most.

Periods of sunshine will be interrupted by hit-and-miss showers through the weekend, some heavy with further thunderstorm risks, although any showers on Sunday may become less potent.

Monday may have some rain in north-western regions, mostly western Scotland and Northern Ireland where it will also be breezy and cool; but a ridge of high pressure building across should ensure a drier day in Wales and England. Temperatures should come down by another couple of degrees.

As the high pressure weakens on Tuesday, rain or showers should make greater inroads across the UK, although the south-eastern quarter may stay drier until Wednesday, which should be a changeable and breezy day. A few scattered thunderstorms are possible during the first half of the week as well.

Through the rest of the week, it looks like high pressure will try to build from the south-west. This could lead to mostly dry weather across southern and eastern regions of the UK, with temperatures perhaps rising a notch, above the early July average. However, Atlantic frontal systems should bring bouts of rain or showers to the northern and western UK, with near-seasonal temperatures most likely here.

High pressure may be influential again

The second week of July could be strongly influenced by high pressure, which may become centred closer to the UK or Ireland. This will push the jet stream further north and lead to more settled weather across most areas. It should be drier than normal, even if some areas don't entirely miss some showers.

The wettest and breeziest conditions should be across Scotland, especially the west and north, as Atlantic frontal systems move around the northern flank of the high pressure and bring occasional rain or showers as they brush past.

Temperatures are going to be dependent on exactly where this potential high pressure positions itself, but they are more likely to be above average than below, and southern regions could warm several degrees above normal.

Scotland should have temperatures fluctuating around the seasonal average from day to day. The risk to this forecast is that high pressure stays farther west, which would result in cooler flows and potentially wetter weather overall.

Mostly warmer than average

The outlook further into July has high uncertainty, with longer range models having weak signals and diverging considerably. High pressure should still feature but its position is very uncertain. We may see high pressure anomalies shifting to more northern latitudes for a while through mid-July, but this may have similar impacts on temperatures, with most of the UK warmer than normal, or closer to seasonal across some northern areas. There may be increasing chances of showers or thunderstorms, but rainfall amounts are most likely to be near or below average overall.

Slightly cooler conditions are possible if an Atlantic high pressure ridge also stays in place. However, there might eventually be a high pressure development over Scandinavia later in July, which would help to solidify above-average warmth and bring chances of stronger heat. That is rather speculative at the moment though, and derived from global teleconnections rather than any strong signal in the longer-range models.

In Tuesday's outlook we will re-examine the expected high pressure regions as they slide around, and see if it's possible to nail down their position better in the longer-range period. And based on that, might it eventually turn rather hot again?