Monthly Outlook

Changeable weather will continue into the coming week, although a couple of drier and milder or warmer days should develop before midweek.

Mid-to-late April should become drier, but more unsettled conditions are possible by early May.

Strong winds this weekend, changeable week ahead

Storm Dave will dominate the weekend's weather. Patchy rain will move northwards during Saturday, becoming heavier and more widespread over Northern Ireland and Scotland, with snow for a while in the Highlands.

Some heavier rain will get into the north of England and Wales as well later while winds strengthen as Storm Dave's centre approaches Scotland, rapidly deepening. Stormy conditions will impact some northern parts of the UK. Sunday will be less windy but still blustery and there will be some sunshine appearing, punctuated by showers, mostly in the north where they will turn wintry on the hills as chillier air arrives

Monday will be mostly dry, due to high pressure centred to the southeast extending a ridge across the UK, and this set-up will make conditions milder than Sunday's. Tuesday and Wednesday should also be largely dry with mild or even warm southeasterly flows, although there may be some brisk breezes.

As high pressure shifts north-east, it may allow an Atlantic cold front to approach and bring some patchy rain to westernmost areas later. The second half of the week should see a couple of weather systems moving through, with transient high pressure in between, followed by a chillier, showery weekend with some wintriness possible over northern high ground.

Drier, mostly mild and possibly turning cooler later

Through the middle of April, high pressure is most probably going to remain centred east of the UK, perhaps over Scandinavia. This should draw in some mild or even warm flows at times, especially across the southern UK, but the northern UK may find itself in some chillier air at times.

Averaged across the week, temperatures in most areas should be close to or above seasonal values. However, high pressure may not be strong enough to keep Atlantic weather systems completely at bay, so there will be a chance of rain edging in at times, more so in western regions than in eastern areas.

Confidence in the forecast pattern is rather low, and there is a chance that high pressure could build more to the south and southwest than the east.

This would bring a greater chance of low pressure and frontal systems affecting the northern and northwestern UK, with wetter, windier and cooler conditions overall. Southern regions would still be warmer and somewhat drier.

Possibly turning cooler

Later in April, high pressure should still feature in some shape or form but its position remain uncertain. However, there are still signs that the strongest high pressure anomalies could eventually become positioned at higher latitudes, potentially towards Iceland and Greenland as Scandinavian high pressure possibly weakens.

Its exact position will dictate temperatures and rainfall but there is at least a chance of some cooler air filtering in from the north, while precipitation amounts should be near or below normal during the first week of this period.

Any significantly cold weather is a low risk, but temperatures in some areas could average closer to seasonal values, more likely across the north. This shift in the pattern could allow a greater chance of low pressure systems approaching the UK by early May, eventually leading to chances of some wetter weather.

Tuesday's update will reassess the expected high pressure developments, and may shed more light on its expected position through mid-April.