Monthly Outlook

A much warmer period will develop across most of the UK, with a drier trend as well for most.

The middle and second half of next week could see thundery outbreaks or bands of rain before drier weather potentially returns during early June.

A warmer trend, especially in the south and east

Wednesday will be breezy with occasional sunny breaks and scattered showers, although fewer showers than Tuesday. Nevertheless, a few could be heavy with a chance of isolated thunderstorms, particularly over northern Scotland.

It will be a slightly warmer day, and temperatures will pick up further on Thursday, especially in southern and eastern England, as high pressure moves north-eastwards across the near continent and starts to draw in some warmer south to south-westerly flows.

Parts of Wales, northern England, Scotland and Northern Ireland could still catch a few showers, with a lengthier period of rain possible in western Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Friday could be the warmest day of the year so far, particularly across England and Wales where there should be plenty of sunny and dry weather, although the far south-west could catch a stray shower. Scotland and Northern Ireland should be cloudier with some patchy rain before drier and brighter weather develops later.

The weekend should be warm or very warm in most areas, with temperatures peaking across central, eastern and south-eastern England as another high pressure ridge builds from the south-west.

However, before it becomes established, some hefty showers or thunderstorms could develop in places during Saturday along a cold front, prior to mostly drier conditions on Sunday. Some coastal regions might get caught under banks of sea fog or low cloud, and end up cooler.

Warmer than normal; more changeable later

Early next week, high pressure should remain settled near or across the UK, although its exact position is uncertain. There are signs that it could become centred near Scotland, which could draw in some cooler, cloudier weather towards eastern coasts of Scotland and England, with sea fog and spots of coastal drizzle possible.

However, the bulk of the UK should experience some warm sunshine and dry conditions, although southern coasts of England could be a bit breezy. If high pressure were to settle farther east, then it could pull in even warmer air from the Continent, with high temperatures challenging the 30 Celsius mark, but that is contingent on the set-up being just right.

Either way, there could be a change in conditions from midweek onwards, with increasing chances of some sharp showers or thunderstorms developing, especially later Wednesday and into Thursday, and these may sort themselves into organised lines or clusters.

Daytime temperatures should come down a few degrees for the latter part of the week, with further chances of rain by the weekend as high pressure declines and Atlantic frontal systems try to approach.

Another drier and warmer period is possible

In early June, high pressure may try to reassert itself, leading to drier conditions overall with below average rainfall for the first week of the month, although a little rain cannot be entirely ruled out anywhere.

However, this should be more likely in north-western regions, with Scotland in particular more susceptible to occasional wetter spells and perhaps near average rainfall. Temperatures here could be close to the seasonal average but across much of the UK they are most likely to be at least a little higher than normal.

One proviso is, again, the position of the expected high pressure. If it were to become centred farther north it could draw in some cooler flows, especially towards eastern coasts.

In the second week of June there is little sign of any major change to the pattern, with high pressure still extending across or near the UK but exact conditions and temperatures very dependent on where it remains centred. So, temperature trends have the same caveats as the first week of the month, although the probability leans towards near or above average temperatures overall for many, save perhaps for some coastal areas.

High pressure may weaken at times to allow an increased chance of a little rain or a few showers, but rainfall amounts should not be any higher than normal in many areas. We might need to look out, however, for thundery outbreaks moving north and north-eastwards out of Spain and France.

On Friday we will take another look at how long high pressure might hang around into June, and glance further forwards into the third week of the month.