Mareykanku ma ku duuli doonaa?: Waa maxay masiirka Cuba ka dib dacwaddii Raúl Castro?

Mareykanka ayaa kusoo oogaya madaxweynihii hore ee Cuba Raúl Castro, oo 94 jir ah, dacwad dil ah, taasoo sii hurinaysa wararka la isla dhexmarayo ee sheegaya in Havana ay noqon karto bartilmaameedka xiga ee liiska Washington ee isbeddelka nidaamka.

Iyadoo uu socdo olole "cadaadiskii ugu badnaa" oo horseeday yaraanta shidaalka iyo korontada ee ugu xun Cuba tobanaan sano, mas'uuliyiinta Mareykanka ayaa sii wada inay ku baaqaan in la soo afjaro dowladda shuuciga ah ee awoodda ku lahayd jasiiradaha muddo 66 sano ah.

In kasta oo Madaxweyne Donald Trump uu sheegay inuu aaminsan yahay in aan loo baahnayn in "lasii kordhiyo khilaafka," Aqalka Cad ayaa sidoo kale ka digay inaysan u dulqaadan doonin "hal doolar oo musuqmaasuq ah" oo ah goob 144 kiiloomitir u jirta xeebta Mareykanka.

Waxa xiga ee dhici kara lama oga. BBC-du waxay qeexaysaa saddex arimood oo suurtagal ah oo ay dhibaatada Cuba ku sii socon karto.

1. Mareykanka ma laga yabaa in ay so xiraan Raúl Castro

Dacwadaha ka dhanka ah Raúl Castro, oo ka dhashay dhacdo 1996-kii oo diyaaradaha militariga ee Cuba ay ku soo rideen laba diyaaradood oo rayid ah, ayaa isla markiiba dhaliyay warar sheegaya in ciidamada Mareykanka ay bilaabi karaan howlgal lagu qabanayo oo lagu hor geynayo maxkamad ku taal Mareykanka.

Hawlgal noocan oo kale ah ma noqon doono kii ugu horreeyay taariikhda.

Bishii Janaayo, ciidamada gaarka ah ee Mareykanka waxay howlgal degdeg ah ka sameeyeen Venezuela si ay u qabtaan Madaxweyne Nicolás Maduro, oo muddo dheer xulafo la ahaa Cuba, una wareejiyeen New York si uu u wajaho dacwado daroogo iyo hub.

Sannadkii 1989-kii, hawlgal ballaaran oo loo yaqaan Hawlgalka Just Cause ayaa waxaa ku lug lahaa kumanaan ciidamo Mareykan ah oo ku duulay Panama si ay uga saaraan una qabtaan hoggaamiyihii dalkaas ee xilligaas, Manuel Noriega.

Madaxweyne Donald Trump ilaa hadda wuu iska fogeeyay inuu si toos ah uga jawaabo su'aalaha ku saabsan inuu ka fiirsanayo inuu hawlgal noocaas ah ka fuliyo Cuba iyo in kale.

Si kastaba ha ahaatee, qaar ka mid ah sharci-dejiyayaasha Mareykanka ayaa si cad ugu baaqay in howlgal noocaas ah la sameeyo.

Senator Rick Scott oo ka tirsan Florida ayaa u sheegay wariyeyaasha: "Wixii ku dhacay Nicolás Maduro waa inay ku dhacaan Raúl Castro."

Khubaradu waxay leeyihiin, marka laga eego dhinaca militariga, hawlgal lagu qabanayo Castro waa suurtagal, laakiin waxay yeelan doontaa khataro iyo caqabado badan, oo ay ku jiraan da'diisa oo sii weynaaday iyo suurtagalnimada in laga hor yimaado.

Laakiin xarigga Castro, oo xilka ka degay sannadkii 2018, uma badna inuu saameyn weyn ku yeelan doono dowladda Cuba oo dhan, taasoo muddo dheer u aragtay inuu yahay shakhsi saameyn leh laakiin inta badan astaan u ah.

"Uma maleynayo inay taasi saameyn badan ku yeelan doonto nidaamka awoodda haya ee Cuba xilligan. Waa 94 jir," Isacson ayaa yiri. "Qoyska Castro waxay leeyihiin saameyn, laakiin ma aha xuddunta nidaamka ay dhisteen."

"Laakiin sababo siyaasadeed oo gudaha ah awgood, taasi waxaa loo arki karaa guul weyn," ayuu raaciyay. "Waxay jeclaan lahaayeen inay ceebeeyaan qoyska Castro oo ay xabsiga dhigaan mid ka mid ah kacaan-wadeyaashii asalka ahaa ee 1959. Laakiin qiimaha istaraatiijiyadeed ee arintaas waa mid su'aal la iska weydiin karo."

2. Mareykanku wuxuu raadin karaa isbeddel hoggaan oo ka dhaca Havana

Suurtagalnimada ay ka wada hadleen mas'uuliyiinta Mareykanka, oo ay ku jiraan Donald Trump, ayaa ah in hoggaan cusub uu ka soo muuqan doono Havana.

Sida ay sheegeen khubaradu, habka loo maray wuxuu la mid noqon karaa sidii Nicolás Maduro loogu beddelay Delcy Rodríguez oo ka tirsan Venezuela, xaalad ka dhigtay dowladda mid gebi ahaanba aan waxba ka jirin, laakiin hadda si toos ah ula macaamilaysa maamulka Trump.

Trump ayaa si isdaba joog ah u sheegay inuu durbaba la xiriiray dad ku sugan gudaha Cuba oo rajeynaya inay ka caawiyaan Mareykanka iyadoo dhibaatada dhaqaale ay sii xumaanayso.

"Cuba waxay weydiisanaysaa kaalmo, waanan wada hadli doonnaa," ayuu ku qoray bogga Truth Social 12-kii Maajo.

Dhowr maalmood ka dib, Agaasimaha CIA John Ratcliffe wuxuu la kulmay mas'uuliyiinta Cuba, oo ay ku jiraan wiilka uu awoowga u yahay Castro, Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, iyo sidoo kale Wasiirka Arrimaha Gudaha Lázaro Álvarez Casas.

"Waxa aan la shaqeyn doonnaa kuubaanka... marka ugu danbeysana go'aan ayey gaari doonaan. Nidaamkoodu ma shaqeyn karo mar dambe," ayuu Xoghayaha Arrimaha Dibadda Marco Rubio ugu sheegay wariyeyaasha Florida, isagoo intaa ku daray in maamulku uu taageersan yahay "heshiisyada laga wada hadlay."

Isbeddellada uu Mareykanku doonayo waxaa ka mid noqon kara ballanqaad lagu furayo dhaqaalaha, loo oggolaanayo maalgashi shisheeye oo badan iyo ka qaybgalka kooxaha dibad-joogga ah ee Cuba, iyo sidoo kale in la baabi'iyo joogitaanka hay'adaha sirdoonka Ruushka ama Shiinaha ee jasiiradda.

Waa muhiim in la ogaado in isbeddelladani ay ka dhigi karaan dowladda Cuba mid gebi ahaanba aan waxba ka tarin.

"Sida ay u rabeen inay ka fogaadaan xasillooni darrada Venezuela, waxay sidoo kale rabaan inay ka fogaadaan xasillooni darrada Cuba," ayuu yiri Michael Shifter, oo ah barafasoor cilmiga Latin Ameerika ka dhiga Kulliyadda Georgetown iyo agaasimihii hore ee Wadahadalka Inter-American ee fadhigiisu yahay Washington.

"Ku qasbidda isbeddelka maamulka waxay noqon doontaa mid aad khatar u ah," ayuu raaciyay.

Khubaro dhowr ah oo la hadlay BBC-da ayaa sheegay in caqabadda maamulka Trump ay tahay inaysan jirin qof cad oo gudaha Cuba jooga oo sugaya inuu si qarsoodi ah ula wareego.

"Uma maleynayo inuu jiro qof sida Delcy Rodríguez oo kale ah oo Cuba ku sugan, mas'uuliyiintuna si ka duwan ayay uga shaqeeyaan Cuba marka loo eego Venezuela," ayuu yiri Shifter. "Way adag tahay in si sax ah loo ogaado waxa ay raadinayaan, laakiin waxa aan aaminsanahay inay raadinayaan nooc ka mid ah nidaamka maamulka cusub."

Suurtagalnimada saddexaad ayaa ah in Cuba ay burburi karto sababtoo ah cadaadis dhaqaale oo daran oo ay weli wajahayso, kaas oo durba sababaya koronto la'aan saacado badan socota maalin kasta iyo cunto yaraan daran oo ka jirta jasiiradda.

"Ma dhici doonto in aan galno iska horimaad militari. Uma maleynayo inaan u baahannahay mid," ayuu yiri Donald Trump. "Aaggaasi wuu burburayaa. Waa masiibo, ilaa xadna way lumiyeen xakamaynta."

Si kastaba ha ahaatee, khubaradu waxay qeexayaan sawir ka sii adag, halkaas oo maamulka dowladda Cuba uu si weyn u sii jiro, inkastoo ay jirto xiisad dhaqaale.

"Waa inaan kala soocnaa dhaqaalaha Cuba iyo dowladda Cuba iyo qaranka," ayuu yiri Michael Shifter. "Dhaqaalaha Cuba wuu burburi karaa, horeyna wuu u burburay.. laakiin dowladdu waxay sii waddaa inay shaqeyso, gaar ahaan qaybta amniga."

Dhibaatada doolarka ayaa sidoo kale caqabad ku noqon karta maamulka Trump haddii tiro badan oo Cuban ah ay bilaabaan inay ka cararaan dalka, gaar ahaan dhanka Mareykanka.

Dadka Cuba ee dhawaan yimid sidoo kale ma helin magangelyo siyaasadeed oo badan sababtoo ah xayiraadaha socdaalka ee maamulka Trump.

"Haddii ay burburto, waxaad arki lahayd qayb badan oo ka mid ah dadka Kuubaanka ah oo isku dayaya inay baxsadaan, sida ay dadka reer Haiti u sameynayeen sannado badan," ayuu yiri Adam Isacson.

"Florida waa meesha ugu dhow, laakiin waxaan sidoo kale dhici lahayd dad u socda Mexico."

Isacson wuxuu raaciyay inuu la yaabay in socdaalka noocaas ahi uusan weli bilaaban.

"Dadka waxay u badan tahay inay ku nool yihiin 1,000 ama 1,500 kaloori maalintii mana haystaan daryeel caafimaad oo aasaasi ah," ayuu yiri. "Waxa aad ku fikiri lahayd inay horey usii dhisi lahaayeen doomahooda."