Trump oo u sheegay Taiwan inaysan "ku dhawaaqin madax-bannaani" — balse ma rabtaa inay sidaas sameyso?

Saacado kaddib markii uu Madaxweynaha Shiinaha Xi Jinping kula kulmay magaalada Beijing toddobaadkii hore, Donald Trump wuxuu bixiyay digniin adag oo uu u diray Taiwan isagoo uga digaya inay raacdo madax-bannaani.

"Ma doonayo in qof uu madax-bannaani qaato. Waad ogtahay, waxaa la filayaa inaan safarno 9,500 mayl si aan dagaal u galno. Taas ma doonayo. Waxaan rabaa inay xaaladda dejiso. Waxaan rabaa in Shiinaha uu is dejiyo," ayuu u sheegay Fox News wareysi la sii daayay Jimcihii.

Hadallada Trump — kuwa ka mid ah kuwa ugu adag ee madaxweyne Maraykan ah ilaa hadda ka yiraahdo arrintan — ayaa isla markiiba kiciyay jawaabo badan oo ka yimid Taiwan, kuwaas oo sheegay in aysan u arkin inayq abaan baahi ay si rasmi ah ugu dhawaaqaan madax-bannaani.

Madax-bannaanida Taiwan waa xadka ugu daran ee ay Beijing khad cas ka dhigato, iyadoo sheegata Taiwan inay iyada leedahay isla markaana ay ku eedaysay Madaxweyne Lai Ching-te inuu yahay goonni-goosad.

Laakiin arrintani aad ayay uga qoto-dheer tahay sida ay u muuqato.

Muxuu Shiinuhu u doonayaa Taiwan?

Rabitaanka Shiinaha ee ah inuu "dib ula midoobo" Taiwan waa mid soo jireen ah oo taariikhi ah.

Waxay dib ugu laabanaysaa dhammaadkii dagaalkii sokeeye ee Shiinaha sanadkii 1949, markaas oo Xisbiga Shuuciga Shiinaha uu la wareegay xukunka dalka, halka ciidamadii laga adkaaday ee Kuomintang ay u gurteen Taiwan, iyagoo u raray xukuumaddoodii magaalada Taipei.

Beijing ayaa tan iyo markaas sheegatay jasiiradda ismaamulka ah. Laakiin tan iyo markii Xi uu xukunka qabtay, dowladda Shiinaha waxay laba jibbaartay hanjabaadaheeda waxayna raadisay siyaabo ay ku baabi'iso waxa ay u aragto goonni-goosadnimo. "Dib-u-mideynta" Taiwan iyo Shiinaha ayaa noqotay yool muhiim ah — Xi laftiisuna wuxuu ugu yeeray "xaqiiq aan la joojin karin."

Sanadihii u dambeeyay, Shiinaha wuxuu kordhiyay noocyo kala duwan oo cadaadis ah, sida tababarrada militari ee u ekaysiiyay go'doomin; go'doominta diblomaasiyadeed ee Taiwan; iyo dagaallo "qabow" iyadoo uu si joogto ah ugu diro maraakiib dagaal iyo diyaarado dagaal meel u dhow biyaha iyo hawada Taiwan.

Shirkii toddobaadkii hore, Xi wuxuu u sheegay Trump in arrinta Taiwan ay tahay tan ugu muhiimsan ee xiriirka u dhexeeya Maraykanka iyo Shiinaha, islamarkaana si khaldan loo maareeyo ay keeni karto isku dhac.

Maaddaama Maraykanku yahay xulafada ugu dhow ee Taiwan — isla markaana sharcigu ku waajibinayo inuu siiyo jasiiradda agab ay isku difaacdo — falanqeeyayaal muddo dheer ka walaacsanaayeen in weerar kasta oo lagu qaado Taiwan uu Maraykanka gelin karo dagaal toos ah oo uu la galo Shiinaha.

Shiinaha ayaa si cad mowqifkiisa ku saabsan Taiwan ku muujiyay Xeerka Ka-hortagga Gooni-goosadka ee la soo saaray 2005, kaas oo sheegaya inuu doonayo "dib-u-mideyn nabadeed" oo jasiiradda ah.

Laakiin sharcigaas wuxuu kaloo sheegayaa in haddii xoogagga "madax-bannaanida Taiwan" ay sababaan go'idda Shiinaha, ama ay dhammaato suurtagalnimada "dib-u-mideyn nabadeed," Shiinuhu uu adeegsan karo "habab aan nabad ahayn" si uu u ilaaliyo midnimadiisa dhuleed.

Taas macnaheedu waa in Shiinuhu uusan ka reebin isticmaalka xoog militari si uu Taiwan ula wareego haddii uu u arko inay lagama maarmaan tahay. Dadka intooda badan waxay aaminsan yihiin in haddii dowladda Taiwan ay si rasmi ah ugu dhawaaqdo madax-bannaani, arrintaasi ay kicin doonto tallaabadaas.

Taiwan ma waxay dooneysaa madax-bannaani?

Taiwan waxay xiriir dhaqaale iyo mid dhaqan oo dhow la leedahay Shiinaha. Laakiin inta badan dadka ku nool Taiwan — oo leh nidaam dimuqraadiyadeed oo adag — waxay naftooda u arkaan inay siyaasad ahaan ka duwan yihiin Shiinaha, kaas oo sannadihii u dambeeyay sii noqday mid kali-talisnimo u janjeera.

Inta badan waxay sidoo kale rabaan in la ilaaliyo xaaladda hadda jirta (status quo) — taasoo macnaheedu yahay in aan si rasmi ah loogu dhawaaqin madax-bannaani, isla markaana aan lala midoobin Shiinaha.

Mowqifka rasmiga ah ee dowladda Taiwan ee uu hoggaamiyo Xisbiga Horumarka Dimuqraadiyadda (DPP), oo talinayay tan iyo 2016, wuxuu la jaanqaadaa aragtidan.

Madaxweyne Lai, iyo kii ka horreeyay Tsai Ing-wen, labaduba waxay ku adkaysteen in maaddaama Taiwan ay isu aragto dal madax-bannaan, aysan jirin baahi loo qabo in si rasmi ah loogu dhawaaqo madax-bannaani.

Tani asal ahaan waa hab lagu muujinayo madax-bannaanida Taiwan iyadoo weliba la hubinayo inaanay ka tallaabin xadka cas ee Shiinaha.

Xitaa haddii ay doonayaan, madaxweynaha ama dowladda si fudud uguma dhawaaqi karaan madax-bannaani — arrintaas si rasmi ah waxa lagu samayn karaa oo keliya haddii golaha sharci-dejinta ee Taiwan uu meel mariyo wax-ka-beddel dastuur, isla markaana inta badan muwaadiniintu ay u codeeyaan afti dadweyne.

Si kastaba ha ahaatee, Beijing weli waxay ka shaki qabtaa DPP, oo markii hore u ololeyn jirtay madax-bannaani, waxayna si gaar ah u neceb tahay Lai oo horey u jeediyay hadallo adag oo ka dhan ah Beijing ka hor inta uusan xilka qaban. Waxay marar badan ku canbaareysaa isaga iyo xisbigiisa iyagoo ku tilmaamaya "goonni-goosad taageera madax-bannaanida."

Iyadoo tixraacaysa dhismaha iyo xoojinta awoodda militariga Taiwan sanadihii u dambeeyay, Beijing waxay sidoo kale ku eedeysay dowladda DPP inay "afduubaan" muwaadiniinta ayna "saartay gaari-dagaaleedka 'Madax-bannaanida Taiwan'." Lai ayaa sheegay inuusan raadinayn isku dhac, isla markaana uu kaliya xoojinayo difaaca jasiiradda iyadoo la wajahayo cadaadis sii kordhaya oo kaga imanaya Shiinaha.

Mareykanku ma taageersan yahay madax-bannaanida Taiwan?

In kasta oo hadalladii u dambeeyay ee Trump ee ku saabsan Taiwan ay abuureen jawaabo waaweyn, haddana ma jirto dowlad Maraykan ah oo si cad u sheegtay in Taiwan ay madax-bannaani gaarto.

Kadib shirkii uu la yeeshay Xi, Trump wuxuu sheegay in hoggaamiyaha Shiinaha "uusan doonayn dhaqdhaqaaq madax-bannaani" oo ka dhaca Taiwan, isla markaana Trump uu "dhegeystay" balse "uusan wax faallo ah ka bixin."

Guud ahaan, Maraykanku wuxuu isku dayaa inuu ilaaliyo dheelitirnaan aad u nugul marka ay timaaddo arrinta aadka xasaasiga u ah ee Taiwan.

Sanadkii 1979, Maraykanku wuxuu joojiyay xiriirkii rasmiga ahaa ee uu la lahaa jasiiradda kadib markii Washington ay xiriir diblomaasiyadeed la sameysay Beijing. Tani waxay ka dhigan tahay in Maraykanku aqoonsan yahay mowqifka Beijing ee ah in ay jirto hal dowlad oo Shiinaha ah — taasoo ku taalla Beijing.

Laakiin isla sannadkaas, Maraykanku wuxuu ansixiyay Xeerka Xiriirka Taiwan, kaas oo dhigaya in Maraykanku "siin karo Taiwan hub difaac ah" — taasina waa sababta uu ilaa maanta weli hub ugu iibiyo Taiwan.

Xeerkaasi wuxuu kaloo sheegayaa in nabadda gobolkaasi ay dan u tahay Maraykanka, isla markaana uu haysto awood uu "ku diidi karo isticmaalid kasta oo xoog ama noocyo kale oo qasbid ah oo khatar gelin kara amniga ama nidaamka bulsho iyo dhaqaale" ee Taiwan.

Tani waa sababta digniintii ugu dambeysay ee Trump uu u diray Taiwan ay ula yaabeen falanqeeyayaal qaarkood, kuwaas oo u arka inay calaamad u tahay in Maraykanku laga yaabo inuu ka leexanayo ama daciifinayo ballanqaadkiisii uu u hayay jasiiradda — isla markaana soo jeedinaya in Xi uu saameyn ku yeeshay madaxweynaha Maraykanka.

Ryan Hass, oo ah falanqeeye ka tirsan hay'adda Brookings Institution ee Maraykanka, ayaa sheegay in Trump uu "kordhiyay khatarta iska horimaad," maaddaama "taageeradiisa muuqata ee sida Xi u qaabeeyay arrinta Taiwan ay ku dhiirri-gelin doonto Beijing inay kordhiso cadaadiska ay saarayso Taipei."

Laakiin Trump wuxuu sidoo kale ku adkeystay in "aysan waxba is beddelin" marka ay timaaddo siyaasadda Maraykanka ee Taiwan, wuxuuna xitaa muujiyay inuu doonayo inuu si toos ah ula hadlo Lai — arrin si weyn u ka careysiin doonta Beijing, sida ay dhacday markii ugu dambeysay ee Trump uu la hadlay madaxweyne Taiwan ah.

Dad badan ayaa si dhow ula socon doona waxa tallaabada xigta ee Maraykanku noqon doonto si loo ogaado haddii ay jirto isbeddel siyaasadeed, tusaale ahaan haddii Trump uu ansixin doono xirmo hub ah oo qiimaheedu yahay $14 bilyan (£10.4 bilyan) oo loo qorsheeyay Taiwan, taasoo ku xigta iib hub oo $11 bilyan (£8.2 bilyan) ah oo la shaaciyay bishii Diseembar.

Kadib shirkii, Trump si cad ugama go'aan gaarin inuu bixiyo oggolaanshaha ugu dambeeya ee xirmada ugu dambeysay, isagoo Fox News u sheegay inay "ku xiran tahay Shiinaha" isla markaana ay tahay "kaar gorgortan oo aad noogu wanaagsan, run ahaantii." Wuxuu markii dambe wariyeyaasha u sheegay inuu "go'aan ka gaari doono muddo gaaban gudaheed."

Iyadoo lagu xiran yahay Xeerka Xiriirka Taiwan, siyaasadda Maraykanka ee ku aaddan Taiwan si weyn iskuma beddelin tobannaan sano ee la soo dhaafay inkastoo hadallo kala duwan ay jeediyeen madaxweynayaashii hore.

Madaxweynihii hore Joe Biden ayaa laba jeer sheegay in Maraykanku uu difaaci doono Taiwan haddii Shiinuhu weeraro, taasoo u muuqata inuu ka leexday siyaasadda loo yaqaan "madmadow istaraatiiji ah" — oo ah siyaasad aan si cad u ballanqaadin difaac, balse aan sidoo kale ka reebin suurtagalnimadaas.

Si kastaba ha ahaatee, mar kasta, maamulkiisu wuxuu mar dambe caddeeyay in siyaasadda Maraykanka ee Taiwan aysan waxba iska beddelin.