Me ya sa sai yanzu sojojin Amurka ke ficewa daga Iraƙi bayan shekara 20?

Amurka na shirin kammala janye ragowar dakarunta daga ƙasar Iraƙi, lamarin da zai kawo ƙarshen wani aikin soja da ya yi tasiri a ƙasar fiye da shekaru 20.

Matakin na nuni da kawo ƙarshen kasancewar sojojin Amurka a Iraƙi, wanda ya fara da mamayar ƙasar a shekarar 2003 da ta hambarar da gwamnatin Saddam Hussein, sannan ya ci gaba a tsawon shekarun da aka shafe ana fuskantar tayar da ƙayar baya da rikice-rikicen ƙabilanci da na addini.

Kodayake sojojin Amurka sun janye daga ƙasar a shekarar 2011, sun sake komawa a shekarar 2014 domin taimakawa wajen yaƙi da ƙungiyar IS.

Sabon janyewar na zuwa ne a daidai lokacin da rikicin da ke ci gaba tsakanin Amurka da Iran ya sake sanya jami'an Amurka da ke Iraƙi cikin haɗari.

Sai dai masana na cewa tasirin Amurka a Iraƙi ba zai gushe ba ko da bayan janyewar sojojin nata.

Me yake faruwa a yanzu kuma me ya sa?

A hukumance, janyewar sojojin na zuwa ne bayan wata yarjejeniya da aka cimma tsakanin ƙasashen biyu a shekara ta 2024 domin kawo ƙarshen Operation Inherent Resolve, wato aikin rundunar haɗin gwiwa ƙarƙashin jagorancin Amurka da aka kafa domin yaƙi da ƙungiyar IS.

A lokacin da yaƙin Iraƙi ya kai kololuwa a shekarar 2007, sama da sojojin Amurka 170,000 ne aka girke a ƙasar.

Zuwa watan Disamban 2023, kafin a cimma yarjejeniyar janyewar, adadin ya ragu zuwa kusan 2,400, a cewar Rundunar Tsakiyar Amurka (US Central Command).

Tun daga wannan lokaci, Amurka ta rage yawan dakarunta a ƙasar, inda rahotannin kafafen yaɗa labarai suka ce an bar ƙaramin rukuni ne kawai a yankin Kurdistan.

"Wannan janyewar na zuw ane bayan yarjejeniyar da gwamnatin Iraƙi ta baya ta amince da ita, ganin cewa aikin fatattakar ISIS ya cimma burinsa a Iraki," in ji Safwan Al-Amin, babban mai binciken harkokin tsaro da ke aiki da shirin Iraq Initiative na cibiyar Atlantic Council da ke Washington.

Matakin kuma na nuna irin matsin lambar siyasa da aka daɗe ana yi a cikin Iraƙi.

Douglas Silliman, wanda ya yi aiki a matsayin jakadan Amurka a Iraƙi tsakanin shekarun 2016 zuwa 2019, ya ce gwamnatoci daban-daban sun fuskanci matsin lamba na kawo ƙarshen zaman sojojin Amurka a ƙasar, kasancewar mutane da dama na kallon hakan a matsayin tauye iko ga ƙasar Iraƙi.

"Wasu gwamnatocin Iraki, ƙarƙashin matsin lambar ƙungiyoyin da ke goyon bayan Iran da kuma wasu ɓangarori na al'ummar mabiya Shi'a masu rinjaye, sun kasance suna matsa lamba domin tabbatar da cewa waɗannan sojoji sun fice daga ƙasar," in ji Silliman, wanda yanzu shi ne shugaban Arab Gulf States Institute da ke Washington, a hirarsa da BBC.

Sojojin Amurka sun fice daga Iraƙi a shekarar 2011 a lokacin shugabancin Barack Obama, amma suka dawo bayan shekara uku bisa buƙatar Baghdad bayan da ƙungiyar IS ta ƙwace manyan yankuna na ƙasar.

Tun daga lokacin, rawar da suke takawa ta sauya daga gudanar da hare-haren yaƙi kai tsaye zuwa horarwa, ba da shawarwari da kuma musayar bayanan sirri

Sai dai masu nazarin al'amura na cewa lokacin da ake janye sojojin a wannan wata ya fi nasaba da matsalolin tsaro fiye da ƙarshen yaƙi da ƙungiyar IS a hukumance.

"Wannan batu ne da ya shafi haɗari, ba IS ba; wannan hujjar ta ƙare shekaru da suka gabata," in ji H.A. Hellyer, babban masanin tsaro da ke aiki da cibiyar bincike ta RUSI da ke Birtaniya.

Hellyer ya yi nuni da hare-haren da aka kai kan cibiyoyin Amurka a arewacin Iraƙi a baya-bayan nan sakamakon rikice-rikicen yankin da suka haɗa da Iran, yana mai cewa Washington na ƙara kallon ragowar jami'anta a matsayin waɗanda ke cikin haɗarin zama ababen hari.

Shi ma Al-Amin ya amince da wannan ra'ayi, yana mai cewa jami'an Amurka da na Iraƙi sun tattauna a baya kan yiwuwar a ci gaba da barin ƙaramin rukunin sojojin Amurka a ƙasar ko bayan ƙarshen aikin rundunar ƙawance.

"Idan aka yi la'akari da ƙanƙantar yawan sojojin da kuma iyakancewar ƙarfinsu na aiwatar da tasiri ta fuskar soja, yaƙin da ya shafi Iran ya nuna cewa kasancewarsu ya fi zama wani rauni fiye da wata fa'ida," in ji shi.

Da me za a riƙa tuna Amurka a Iraƙi?

Fiye da shekaru 20 bayan mamayar Iraƙi, ra'ayoyi kan irin gadon da sojojin Amurka suka bari a ƙasar na ci gaba da kasancewa masu matuƙar saɓani.

Al-Amin ya bayyana lamarin a matsayin "abu mai ɗauke da nasarori da gazawa a lokaci guda."

"Mamayar Amurka ba ta cimma manufofinta ba, haka kuma sauya gwamnati bai cika burin 'yan Iraƙi na samun ƙasa mai kwanciyar hankali da wadata ba," in ji shi, yana mai cewa mamayar ta haddasa rashin daidaito a yankin tare da bai wa Iran damar faɗaɗa tasirinta.

Silliman ya yarda cewa sauyin ya kasance mai cike da ƙalubale, amma ya ce 'yan Iraƙi da dama sun sha gaya masa tsawon shekaru cewa suna daraja sauyin siyasar da ya biyo bayan kifar da Saddam Hussein.

Ya ce ra'ayin cewa "dimokuraɗiyya mai wakilci ce ya kamata ta tafiyar da mulkin Iraƙi" ya samu karɓuwa, kodayake ya ƙara da cewa "ɗora al'adun dimokuraɗiyya a cikin al'umma da ba ta taɓa samun hakan sosai a baya ba na buƙatar lokaci."

Yerevan Saeed, daraktan shirin Global Kurdish Initiative for Peace a Jami'ar American University da ke Washington, shi ma yana da kyakkyawan ra'ayi kan lamarin.

"Cire tsohuwar gwamnati babban lamari ne ƙwarai," in ji shi, yana mai cewa masu sukar matakin kan yi biris da irin zaluncin da aka kawo ƙarshensa.

Duk da ci gaba da matsalar cin hanci da rashawa, ya yi imanin cewa Iraƙi na da faɗin siyasa da kuma damar bayyana ra'ayoyi iri-iri fiye da yadda take kafin shekarar 2003, musamman a yankin Kurdistan na Iraƙi.

Sai dai Hellyer ya yi watsi da kallon gadon mamayar ta fuskar dimokuraɗiyya gaba ɗaya.

Me zai faru a gaba?

Al-Amin ba ya kallon wannan janyewar a matsayin ƙarshen tasirin Amurka a Iraƙi.

"Har yanzu Amurka na da manyan hanyoyin yin tasiri saboda Iraƙi na dogaro da sayar da man fetur a dalar Amurka. Har ila yau, Iraƙi na ci gaba da dogaro da Amurka wajen sayen makamai, kuma tana buƙatar goyon bayan diflomasiyyar Amurka domin tinkarar ƙalubalen da take fuskanta da maƙwabtan yankinta."

Saeed ya ce wani ɓangare na wannan tasiri yana gudana ne ta hanyar faɗaɗa wakilcin diflomasiyyar Washington a ƙasar.

"Akwai ofishin jakadancin Amurka mai girma a Baghdad. Haka kuma akwai ofishin jakadancin Amurka a duniya a Erbil," in ji shi, yana mai nuni da cewa dukkan cibiyoyin biyu za su ci gaba da buƙatar kariya bayan janyewar sojojin.

Silliman na sa ran abin da ya bayyana a matsayin "dangantakar soji mai zurfi sosai" za ta ci gaba, wadda ta haɗa da ci gaba da horarwa da tallafin tsare-tsaren aiki ga sojojin Iraki da Hukumar Yaƙi da Ta'addanci ta ƙasar da kuma Peshmerga, wato rundunar sojin yankin Kurdistan mai cin gashin kansa a wani ɓangare na Iraki.

Sai dai babban abin da ke haifar da rashin tabbas shi ne ƙungiyoyin mayaƙan da Iran ke goyon baya a Iraki.

Tun da farko Firaministan Iraki Ali al-Zaidi ya so a mayar da su gaba ɗaya ƙarƙashin ikon gwamnati kafin wa'adin ranar 30 ga Satumba, amma rahotanni na cewa ƙungiyoyin mayaƙan suna neman a tsawaita wa'adin har zuwa ƙarshen shekarar 2027.

A matakin yanki kuwa, masana sun ce janyewar na haifar da sabbin tambayoyi kan daidaiton ƙarfi tsakanin Amurka da Iran a Iraƙi.

Al-Amin na sa ran Iran "za ta ƙarfafa tasirinta idan ta samu dama", kuma ya yi gargaɗi game da kallon wannan janyewar a matsayin mataki na dindindin.

"Amurka ta taɓa janye sojojinta daga Iraƙi a shekarar 2011, amma bayan wasu shekaru suka sake komawa ƙasar," in ji shi.

"Wannan ƙarshen wani babi ne na labarin, amma ba shi ne babin ƙarshe ba."

Illustration by Raees Hussain