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Written by Harry Poole, Craig Nelson & Melissa Edwards

  1. Get Involved

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    If Spurs get anything against Leeds next week I think it’ll be done

    Alfonso

  2. Points needed to guarantee safety

    A graphic showing the number of seasons in which the point tally has been enough to surviveBBC Sport
    • 25 points or less – survival in 0/30 seasons (0%)
    • 26 – survival in 1/30 seasons (3.33%)
    • 27 – survival in 2/30 seasons (6.67%)
    • 28 – survival in 2/30 seasons (6.67%)
    • 29 – survival in 3/30 seasons (10%)
    • 30 – survival in 3/30 seasons (10%)
    • 31 – survival in 4/30 seasons (13.33%)
    • 32 – survival in 4/30 seasons (13.33%)
    • 33 – survival in 4/30 seasons (13.33%)
    • 34 – survival in 9/30 seasons (30%)
    • 35 – survival in 16/30 seasons (53.33%)
    • 36 – survival in 18/30 seasons (60%)
    • 37 – survival in 23/30 seasons (76.67%)
    • 38 – survival in 24/30 seasons (80%)
    • 39 – survival in 26/30 seasons (86.67%)
    • 40 – survival in 27/30 seasons (90%)
    • 41 – survival in 29/30 seasons (96.67%)
    • 42 – survival in 29/30 seasons (96.67%)

  3. Get Involved

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    Spurs fan - I’m very proud of how we played yesterday but this is not over. We need to get past Leeds next week and hope West Ham lose to almost guarantee safety - but that’s not easy with how Leeds have been playing recently. I still fancy us to win though.

    Dhruv

  4. How many points do you need to stay in the Premier League?

    Jonty Colman
    BBC Sport Journalist

    Ask Me Anything written on a green rectangle

    Premier League teams finishing on 36 or more points in each of the past nine seasons were guaranteed safety from relegation.

    In the 20-team Premier League era, starting from the 1995-96 season, the average number of points needed for survival by finishing 17th is 35.53.

    No team in the past nine campaigns has earned 36 points and been relegated.

    However, this season is on track to be the toughest to survive in 15 years. After 35 rounds of games, 18th place is projected to finish on 39 points, meaning 40 points would be enough to guarantee survival.

    In the 30 Premier League 38-game seasons, 36 points has ensured survival 60% of the time.

    That rate of survival increases to 80% for 38 points, 90% for 40 points and 100% for 43 or more points.

    West Ham hold the record for the team relegated with the most points in the 20-team era. In the 2002-03 season, the Hammers picked up 42 points but were still relegated.

    The safety thresholds for the last two seasons have been significantly lower due to newly promoted teams struggling in the Premier League. The last two seasons have seen 26 and 27 points be enough to seal safety respectively.

    Only once prior to the 2023-24 season has a total below 30 points been enough to seal survival.

  5. Craig Nelson
    BBC Sport reporter

    We are coming to Nottingham Forest in a moment Graham - what a rollercoaster their season has been!

    Will there be another twist in their tale?

    Well you have all had long enough now to crunch the numbers and work out how many points you believe it will take to survive in the Premier League this season.

    At present, you all seem to be torn between '39 or 40' (35%) and '41 or 42' (46%).

    Let's have a look at the Premier League history books to see if what happened in the past can give us any pointers to what the future might have in store...

  6. Get Involved

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    Forest will go, have had that feeling all season long. They may beat Villa in Europe and be distracted from the important stuff.

    Graham

  7. Get Involved

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    As a Leeds fan I’m very proud for how my team has played this season. I really want us to beat Spurs and I think even if Leeds win, West Ham will still go down, it's a tough ask with their fixtures.

    Luke

  8. Get Involved

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    As a West Ham fan - our time in the Premier league is all but over. We were so, so poor for most of the season. We were woeful in some matches. Threw away leads in matches as unable to defend properly. We're getting what we deserve.

    Paul

  9. Get Involved

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    Alex @11:14 is mistaking Arsenal fans for Spurs fans. No Arsenal fan prioritises Spurs' fate over their own team's.

    Simon

  10. Poll: How many points will be enough for survival?

    Right, now that you have had a chance look at those fixtures again, check out the bottom six of the Premier League table, then see if you can figure out how many points it will take to avoid relegation this season...

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  11. Craig Nelson
    BBC Sport reporter

    Behave Alex!

    Firstly, a loss at West Ham on Sunday would not guarantee Tottenham's relegation. But it would certainly have an impact on their quest for survival.

    Clearly, Arsenal have to win that game to keep the pressure on Manchester City, but I suppose it is fair to ask Gunners fans if knowing that they could be helping their north London rivals would take the shine off a victory?

    Maybe just a little?

    No, I thought not.

    One thing is for sure, Sunday's match at London Stadium has everything riding on it, and more.

    Fans and neutrals alike will not want to miss that one.

  12. Get Involved

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    A question for Arsenal fans: Would you take the L at West Ham if it guaranteed Spurs' relegation?

    Alex

  13. Could order of games play part in survival battle?

    All kick offs in BST

    Premier League

    Could the order in which fixtures are played have any bearing on the Premier League survival battle?

    Nottingham Forest play first in the next two rounds of fixtures, followed by West Ham and then Tottenham.

    Spurs have a one-point advantage over 18th-placed Hammers with three games remaining, but could find themselves back in the relegation zone if West Ham can upset the odds by beating title-chasing Arsenal at home in their next match.

    Conversely, if the Gunners win at West Ham, Spurs could move four points clear of their rivals by winning their next match at home to Leeds.

    Should that happen, Nuno Espirito Santo's side would be relegated if they lose at Newcastle on 17 May.

    Meanwhile, Forest can take themselves out of the equation by winning their next two games, before their rivals next play, but if they slip up could be right back in the mix.

    West Ham, Tottenham and Nottingham Forest's Premier League run-in:

    • 04 May: Chelsea v Nott'm Forest (15:00)
    • 10 May: Nott'm Forest v Newcastle (14:00)
    • 10 May: West Ham v Arsenal (16:30)
    • 11 May: Tottenham v Leeds (20:00)
    • 17 May: Man Utd v Nott'm Forest (12:30)
    • 17 May: Newcastle v West Ham (17:30)
    • 19 May: Chelsea v Tottenham (20:15)
    • 24 May: Nottm Forest v Bournemouth (16:00)
    • 24 May: Tottenham v Everton (16:00)
    • 24 May: West Ham v Leeds (16:00)

  14. Craig Nelson
    BBC Sport reporter

    It's a fair point, West Ham have had momentum on their side until this weekend, on the back of some much-improved performances.

    Nuno Espirito Santo has got his side playing well and believing in each other, but the concern is that they could play well - like they did at Brentford - and still not pick up enough points from their remaining fixtures...

  15. 'The result didn't reflect the performance'

    Brentford 3-0 West Ham

    Nigel Reo-Coker
    Former West Ham midfielder on BBC Radio 5 Football Daily

    West Ham dejectGetty Images

    I've been in a relegation scrap myself and I think for me when you look at West Ham and their momentum, performances have been there, which is a massive thing. There's the belief you can win games or get something out of it.

    Now this weekend, the result doesn't reflect the performance so it's going to be about Nuno getting his players over it by saying 'OK we didn't get the result, but the performance was there' to keep that belief and momentum going into the next run of fixtures.

    If they play like that, they will get the right results.

  16. Get Involved - 'We will rue those leads we gave up'

    Click 'Get Involved' to have your say

    With Spurs less "Spursy" I'm gutted after we (West Ham) began to look a more solid team under Nuno. I do think we looked better with a back five though, like we played against City. We will rue those leads we gave up to Chelsea et al.

    Graham

  17. 'Three cup finals to come'

    Brentford 3-0 West Ham

    West Ham United

    Jarrod BowenGetty Images

    West Ham captain Jarrod Bowen told Sky Sports at full-time after their defeat at Brentford:

    "Really disappointing. I think all the goals were really disappointing on our behalf.

    "You have to react in the right way. We had chances, we hit the post twice, we hit the bar and we hit the post again.

    “It’s going to hurt today. But what we have to do now is focus on the next games. We have three games left and every one is a cup final.

    “There’s so much on the line. We can’t let the last few weeks go away because of this result today. On another day we would have got the win today. We’ve done a lot of good things."

  18. Craig Nelson
    BBC Sport reporter

    More in a moment on West Ham's remaining fixtures - more importantly the order of them - and how many points the Hammers may need to survive.

    But first, let's hear from their talisman and captain Jarrod Bowen, who is not ready to give up the fight just yet...

  19. Brentford 3-0 West Ham

    West Ham United

    At this stage, it's not just the defending that will be concerning for West Ham and their fans.

    They have failed to score in three consecutive Premier League away games for the first time since April 2019, when they were managed by Manuel Pellegrini.

    Could their next away game - at Newcastle on 17 May - seal their fate? Or will they continue their fight into the final day?

  20. 'Really concerning for Hammers fans'

    Brentford 3-0 West Ham

    Wayne Rooney
    Former Man Utd striker on BBC Match of the Day

    West Ham's defending was shocking.

    When you're trying to stay in the Premier League, you can't concede goals the way they did. It was an appalling defensive display.

    If I was those West Ham fans, I would be really concerned after seeing that performance.