Image source, Getty Images

The decrease in net migration is "likely to be temporary", according to the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford.

"That’s because lower immigration will eventually feed through into lower emigration," explains researcher Ben Brindle, whilst also noting that net migration "may well have further to fall" due to the decline in visa grants since 2026.

The economic impacts of net migration also "depend more on who is - or is no longer - migrating" rather than how many people there are, Brindle says.

He says migration of groups "that make positive or broadly neutral economic impacts" is "down", whereas "asylum related migration remains high".

"Since refugees have lower employment rates and often need a lot of support from the state, this means that the composition of recent migration has probably become less favourable from an economic perspective," Brindle explains.

Two new sets of data on UK migration have been published this morning - and we're continuing to distil what the figures show us.

We've been crunching the numbers and here's a look at the key stats so far:

On net migration

Net migration drops to 171,000 in the year to December 2025, figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show.

This is the lowest level since 2012, excluding the Covid pandemic. The decrease has been driven by fewer people arriving from outside the EU, the ONS says.

The ONS provisionally estimates 642,000 people left the UK to live in another country long term during the year ending in December 2025.

It also provisionally estimates 813,000 people arrived in the UK for total long-term immigration in the year to December 2025.

On asylum, and small boats

Home Office figures show the number of people claiming asylum has dropped by 12% compared to last year. In the year March 2026, 93,525 claimed asylum, but this is still more than double the level seen just before the pandemic.

The number of asylum seekers living in hotels is down by a third on the year before. Figures show it stands at 20,855 people - the peak was about 56,000 in September 2023 under the last Conservative government.

Home Office figures show that in the year to March 2026, some 39,271 people arrived in the UK on small boats - a 3% increase on last year's figure.

Robert Cuffe
Head of statistics

In the year to March 2026, 48,581 people’s asylum claims were granted. That’s slightly up on the year before because more claims were processed.

Their success rate has actually been falling steadily over the last four years.

It peaked in 2022 when 70% of decisions on asylum claims granted asylum. That success rate is now down below 40%.

Asylum seekers from Eritrea and Sudan are most likely to have their claim granted: roughly nine out of every 10 applications from those countries were successful.

By contrast only 1% of claims from India were approved.

Overall, nearly 80,000 people had their claim rejected when it was first heard.

They can go on to appeal, but we don’t get figures today on the number of appeals that were granted last year.

Below, you can see our graphic on the number of people applying for asylum in the UK:

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We're continuing to comb through the data released this morning by the Office for National Statistics and the Home Office.

Figures from the Home Office show that 236,512 people were granted British citizenship in the year ending March 2026.

This is a 12% drop compared to the number of people who were granted citizenship the year before.

Home Office data also shows there were 165,429 grants of citizenship through "naturalisation", which is granted following a period of residence in the UK.

People with British citizenship have the right to live and work and access public services in the UK without any immigration control, and can apply for a British passport.

The Home Secretary has previously put forward plans to extend the standard wait to qualify for permanent residence from five years to 10 years.

Sima Kotecha
Senior UK correspondent

There are several reasons why net migration has fallen substantially.

Policy changes from early 2024 under the former Conservative government are likely to have made an impact.

They included most overseas students being restricted from bringing family members to the UK.

Care and senior care workers were restricted from bringing dependents with them.

Ministers also increased the general salary threshold for those arriving on skilled visas by 48% from £26,200 to £38,700.

And they increased the minimum income requirement to sponsor someone for a family visa.

After Brexit, there was a large increase in immigration.

Conservative ministers relaxed salary thresholds and some other routes for health and social care workers. Critics of the previous government have dubbed it as the "Boriswave". Some inside the previous government have told the BBC the 2024 measures helped bring down those numbers.

The current government has announced further plans in recent months to reduce net migration even further including migrants coming to the UK having to speak English at an A-level standard.

It’s also announced a further increase in the income threshold for a skilled worker visa to £41,700.

Image source, PA Media

We're now hearing from shadow home secretary Chris Philp, who says that British citizens are "leaving the UK on a massive scale, driven by Labour’s high taxes".

The Conservative MP also says that immigration from countries outside the EU "remains far too high".

• As a reminder, the Office for National Statistics has provisionally estimated that 627,000 non-EU+ nationals arrived in the UK in the year to December 2025 - here's a reminder of the key figures

"Mass low-skill immigration undermines our society and low wage immigration is bad for the economy," he writes in a post on X.

"British families feel it in lower wages, longer waiting lists for public services and housing shortages."

Philp calls for Labour to reform indefinite leave to remain (ILR) before their "hard-left flank" forces the measure to be abandoned.

He says that a Conservative government would "introduce a binding annual immigration cap at a very low level, close the loopholes that let temporary visa holders stay indefinitely and tighten and extend the conditions for ILR".

"We want a small number of highly skilled migrants and no low-skilled migration at all. But sadly, Labour do not have the backbone to do any of it."

Rob England
BBC Verify senior data journalist

The number of asylum seekers living in hotels while their claims are processed in the UK has fallen by a third to just under 21,000.

It is the lowest figure since the government began publishing the data in 2022, and down from a peak of about 56,000 in September 2023 under the previous Conservative government.

But the overall number of asylum seekers being housed by the government remains much higher, at nearly 94,000.

That total fell by about 9,700 compared with December 2025, while more people were moved into longer-term accommodation such as houses of multiple occupation (HMOs) and former military sites.

The government must provide accommodation for asylum seekers who cannot support themselves financially while their claims are being considered.

Hotels were first used as emergency accommodation during a rise in asylum applications after the Covid-19 pandemic.

They later became a routine part of the system after housing stock ran out.

The National Audit Office said the hotels cost £5.7m a day in 2024-25 and were significantly more expensive than longer-term housing.

Labour pledged in its election manifesto to end the use of asylum hotels, saying the move would save taxpayers billions of pounds.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer, commenting on the fall of net migration, says: "I promised to restore control to our borders. My government is delivering.

"I know there’s more to do, we’re introducing a skills-based migration system that rewards contribution and ends our reliance on cheap overseas workers," he writes in a post on X.

This comes after similar comments from Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood, who says the net migration figure shows the UK is "restoring order and control to our borders".

Image source, Reuters

Robert Cuffe
Head of statistics

Let’s break down the figures behind that fall in immigration we described earlier.

The number of people leaving the UK hasn’t changed much. Just over 640,000 people emigrated last year, down by about 6%.

But the number coming has fallen much faster.

Last year, just over 800,000 people immigrated to the UK, down 20% from the 2024 data.

The biggest driver of migration patterns is people who come from outside the EU, as they are still the largest group of arrivals.

When you dig into the visas data you can see far fewer people from outside the EU coming for work and fewer family members coming with them.

Image source, Getty Images

In the year to March 2026, some 39,271 people arrived in the UK on small boats, according to the Home Office figures.

That's a 3% increase on last year's figure to March 2025, which was 38,023. It is still lower than the 2022 peak of 45,774.

Small boat arrivals accounted for 90% of the 43,806 people who arrived via all illegal routes in the year to March 2026. That's roughly the same number as the total for the previous year of 43,822.

We can bring you more now from Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood following the announcement that net migration has dropped to its lowest since the Covid pandemic:

"We will always welcome those who contribute to this country and wish to build a better life here. But we must restore order and control to our borders," she says.

"As these statistics show, real progress has been made, but there is still work to do.

"That is why I am introducing a skills-based migration system that rewards contribution and ends Britain’s reliance on cheap overseas workers."

Image source, Dan Kitwood/PA Wire

Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood says the drop in net migration shows "this government is restoring order and control to our borders".

In a post on X, she adds: "Net migration down 82%. Net migration is now at 171,000, down from a high of 944,000 under the Conservatives."

The ONS provisionally estimates 642,000people left the UK to live in another country long term during the year ending in December 2025.

Meanwhile, the provisional estimate for total long-term immigration to the year ending December 2025 stands at 813,000.

Here's a breakdown of the numbers:

Long-term emigration:

Non-EU+ nationals: 278,000 left the UK, just over half of these originally arrived with study-related visas.

EU+ nationals: 118,000 left the UK, down by 24% from the year before.

British nationals: 246,000 British nationals left the UK, a slight decline of 4% from the 2024 estimates.

Long-term immigration:

Non-EU+ nationals: Provisionally estimated at 627,000 - a decline from 780,000 the year before.

EU+ nationals: 76,000 arrived in the UK, a slight fall from the previous year.

British nationals: 110,000 arrivals into the UK, down from 140,000 the previous year.

Rob England
BBC Verify senior data journalist

The number of asylum seekers living in hotels while waiting for their claims to be processed in the UK has fallen to 20,885 in the 12 months to March 2026.

That's down from 30,657 people in December 2025.

The peak was about 56,000 in September 2023 under the last Conservative government.

Home Office figures reveal that 93,525 people claimed asylum in the UK during the year between April 2025 and March 2026, down by 12% on the year before.

But, this is still more than double the level seen just before the pandemic.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) says net migration continues to fall and is at levels last seen in early 2021, when the new immigration system was introduced and Covid travel restrictions were in place.

Sarah Crofts, deputy director of the ONS, adds: "The recent decrease is driven by fewer people arriving from outside the EU, particularly for work."

Crofts adds that while the number of people leaving the UK - emigration - had been increasing, "there are early signs it may now be starting to fall, though it is too soon to say whether this will continue".

Robert Cuffe
Head of statistics

Migration added 171,000 people to the UK's population last year, just over half the level seen in 2024.

That’s down substantially from the peak of nearly a million people early in 2023 and the lowest figure - outside of the Covid pandemic - since 2012.

The UK's net migration dropped to 171,000 people in the year to December 2025, the lowest since 2012 - excepting the pandemic.

In the next few minutes, the latest UK migration figures will be released.

What's happening? The Office for National Statistics (ONS) and Home Office are about to release the latest sets of data on migration.

What's the difference? ONS will share net migration figures for the year to December 2025. The Home Office is publishing a report on immigration data in the 12 months to March 2026.

Things to know: We've taken a closer look at the previous figures - which showed a sharp fall in net migration and a drop in asylum claims (see more in the graph below). And we've got a quick guide to the key terms you need to know.

Bear with us: It may take us a few minutes to comb through and interpret the latest data, but we'll bring you the key figures shortly.