Rowan Bridge
North of England reporter at Manchester's Co-op Live arena

The question everyone wants to know, but nobody knows the answer to, is when we will have a final result tonight.

In the Manchester count, it looks like the counting of second preferences has happened, and they’re now adjudicating on some of the ballots - to decide if and who they should be counted for.

That same counting and checking will be taking place in all ten boroughs. Only when they are all done will we have a final result.

While we know no candidate received more than 50% of the vote in first preferences, we don't know how many votes - or what percentage - any of them received.

We reported earlier that there were 538,659 verified ballots cast across Greater Manchester, meaning the top candidates - Sian Astley and Bev Craig - received less than half that figure each.

Five candidates have now been eliminated from the contest: Geraldine Coggins (Green Party), Phil Eckersley (Conservative Party), Marcus Farmer (Independent), Richard Kilpatrick (Liberal Democrats) and Marlon West (Restore Britain).

The second round of counting has now started.

Either Bev Craig of Labour or Reform UK's Sian Astley will be the next mayor of Greater Manchester.

Rowan Bridge
North of England reporter at Manchester's Co-op Live arena

So, Sian Astley of Reform UK and Bev Craig for the Labour Party are in a runoff to see who the mayor of Greater Manchester through the rest of this term will be.

The way that it's going to work is that for anybody who didn't vote for Sian Astley or Bev Craig as their first choice, counters will now start looking at who they put as their second choice and those votes will be reallocated.

It means that both candidates may pick up some more votes as second preferences.

These will be counted up and we will then find out the final totals as to what the vote counts are for Bev Craig and Sian Astley.

Now, you would expect that Sian Astley was more likely to pick up votes from, say Conservative votes or Restore Britain voters.

Bev Craig maybe more likely to pick up voters who previously voted first for, say, the Greens or the Lib Dems.

But none of this is guaranteed.

Michaela Howard
North of England senior producer, at the count

From a virtually silent hall, there is now chatter in corners and a buzz from counting assistants getting prepared for the second round of counting the ballots.

Food and refreshments have been brought in for those counters as they enjoy a short break ahead of the second round of counting the votes.

They will now be counting the second votes for Labour's Bev Craig and Sian Astley from Reform UK.

It’s not known how long this next process will take and when the final vote will be declared.

Image source, Getty Images

Sian Astley, Reform UK: Astley represents the Baguley ward on the Manchester City Council and said she had been a Labour voter in the past, adding that "the vice-like grip the party has held over Manchester has been evident for decades".

Bev Craig, Labour: As well as leading Manchester City Council, Craig is the deputy mayor for economy, business and inclusive growth on the region's combined authority. She said Greater Manchester changed her life, adding "I've spent my career trying to give something back".

Image source, PA Media

Sian Astley of Reform UK and Labour's Bev Craig are the two candidates going head-to-head in the second preference vote.

None of the candidates standing to be the next mayor of Greater Manchester have received more than 50% of the vote on first preferences.

That means that under the supplementary voting system, the top two candidates will go into a run-off, in which second preference votes from the eliminated candidates are counted.

Michaela Howard
North of England senior producer, at the count

The waiting continues here at the Co-op Live Arena.

No one knows what is going on but counting assistants have been called into huddles and briefed by their team leaders.

Could it be a recount here for the Manchester City borough?

The candidates how now been called into the consultation room.

Dan Woodland
Live reporter

Image source, pa

We are still waiting for the results from the Greater Manchester mayoral by-election, but that's not to say there's been any shortage of excitement. Let's get you up to speed.

Voting begins

Residents began casting their votes for who would replace the now-Prime Minister Andy Burnham at 07:00 BST on Thursday, with polls closing at 22:00 yesterday evening.

There were seven candidates on the ballot paper - here's a reminder of who they all are.

Counting underway

The verification of ballot papers began early this morning and revealed this year's turnout was the lowest of the four Greater Manchester mayoral elections since the role of an elected mayor for the region was created in 2017.

Voting fatigue and people's awareness of the by-election are among the factors that could have been in play, our North of England reporter Rowan Bridge writes.

An anxious wait

People inside the Co-op Live Arena have been scrolling on phones, turning pages of books and even knitting to pass the time. And of course, there are also plenty of snacks on offer.

Among those waiting patiently is Liberal Democrat candidate, Richard Kilpatrick, who says he doesn't think he's won but is happy with his campaign.

Meanwhile, Labour MP for Stretford and Urmston, Andrew Western, is more optimistic about his party's chances. He says he’s confident their candidate, Bev Craig, will be in the top two when the first round of counting is complete.

As a reminder, voters have been able to select a first and second choice in this election, meaning there could be a second round of counting if an outright winner is not declared in the first round - find out more about the voting system here in our previous post.

The mayoral candidates have been called to gather ahead of a first-round result declaration.

Under the supplementary voting system being used in this by-election, if no one receives more than 50%, the top two candidates will go into a run-off, in which second preference votes from the eliminated candidates are counted.

We will bring you the result of the first count as it comes.

Rowan Bridge
North of England reporter at Manchester's Co-op Live arena

Image source, Pool

There’s a delay at the moment, but then we’re told the candidates will all be called in and given the results of the first round of voting.

If they are happy then we’ll hear who has won, (if someone has more than 50% of the vote) or who the top two candidates are (if no one reaches that threshold).

It’s possible they could query the result - if the count is close for example. That could potentially lead to a recount.

We’ll all just have to wait and see.

We're still waiting on a result to be declared after the first round of counting.

Tom Stannard, the chief executive of Manchester City Council, has just taken to the stage, apologising for "delays in the process".

He says they're still waiting for final approval to carry out a consultation on the provisional results, and asks staff, candidates and agents for "forbearance".

When the first round of counting is ultimately declared, you'll be able to watch live at the top of the page.

As we've reported, indications are this contest will go to a second round of counting because it’s not expected that any one candidate will get more than 50% of the vote.

Under the supplementary voting system, the top two candidates will go into a run-off, in which second preference votes from the eliminated candidates are counted.

Michaela Howard
North of England senior producer

The candidates in the Greater Manchester mayoral election have been called to a room here at the Co-op Live arena.

The mood here is that this election will go to a second round of vote counting.

This election has used supplementary voting meaning people could chose a first and second preference on the ballot paper.

What happens next? An announcement will be made on stage of the names of the two candidates who are going through to the next round of counting.

Its unclear how long it will take to count the second round of votes.

Kevin Fitzpatrick
Political reporter for Greater Manchester

Labour MP for Stretford and Urmston, Andrew Western, says he’s confident their candidate, Bev Craig, will be in the top two when the first round of counting is complete.

“We’re still on the first round of counting so quite a way to go yet but it looks really positive for Bev so far, we're really pleased with what we're seeing," he tells me.

He adds that Craig has run "a really positive campaign" and is "head and above" the other candidates with her experience as leader of Manchester City Council and working as Deputy Mayor with Andy Burnham.

Michaela Howard
North of England senior producer

Counting of the ballots has finished here at the Co-op Live Arena where the results of the Greater Manchester mayoral by-election are expected to be announced at some point today.

But there are still a few boroughs that haven't finished counting.

Here they've been totting up votes for the Manchester City region.

There's lots of chatting on the floor between those who have been counting the votes, some are scrolling on phones, while others are turning pages of books.

Snacks are still being consumed - the punnet of mini muffins and flapjacks is slowly going down.

While we wait for the first declaration to be announced, here are the full turnout results for each of the 10 councils in Greater Manchester:

Prof Andrew Russell
University of Liverpool

Only the prime minister and the mayor of London have more power in English politics than the mayor of Greater Manchester.

Labour's candidate to replace Andy Burnham is the current leader of Manchester City Council, Bev Craig.

While Craig is relatively well known in the city, she faces a tougher task in the other nine boroughs of Greater Manchester.

While Labour has often won elections across the city region, the party's level of support has varied.

For instance, at a time when Labour held 95 of 96 council seats on Manchester City Council, eight of the 10 Greater Manchester boroughs voted leave in the 2016 Brexit referendum.

This may well give hope to Reform UK, for example.

Craig, who has led the city council since 2021, has filled big shoes before. Her predecessor, Sir Richard Leese, was in charge for more than a quarter of a century, taking in an era including Britpop, the 2002 Commonwealth Games and the soaring city skyscape.

Annabel Tiffin
At Manchester's Co-op Live Arena

I’ve certainly watched more interesting events at the Co-op live Arena.

While we await the declaration of the first-choice vote there are just a lot of people standing around looking a bit bored.

There doesn’t even seem to be a lot of counting going on.

But things could be about to get exciting. There are rumours that the first declaration will come at 16:00 BST.

So, could we know who the new Mayor of Greater Manchester is then?

Probably not.

All indications are this contest will go to a second round of counting because it’s not expected that any one candidate will get more than 50% of the vote.

Stay with us, this looks likely to be a long one.

In Greater Manchester, the mayor automatically exercises the functions of the police and crime commissioner (PCC) for the region, which is why they can't also be an MP.

The mayor is also responsible for the fire and rescue service and has oversight over local transport plans, responsibility for some skills and adult education and governance of a number of local health commissioning budgets.

They are paid an annual salary of £118,267, which is higher than other regional mayors owing to the PCC responsibilities.