Rachel Clun
Business reporter

Inflation has been rising largely to due to higher fuel prices, which in turn have been driven up by the cost of oil.

Vehicle fuel prices have jumped by 34.2% over 12 months, and rose by 9.1% in September alone, accounting for more than half of the increase in inflation according to the Bureau of Labour Statistics.

Energy inflation was also up by 20.4% over the year, with prices for home heating oil, energy services and electricity climbing.

These steep increases are thanks to high oil prices, which since February have been impacted by the war with Iran. The global benchmark, brent crude, has been above $110 a barrel since 22 October, well above the pre-war level of about $70 a barrel.

Bernd Debusmann Jr
White House reporter

With just days left to go until the midterms here in the US, Donald Trump's approval ratings on the economy have hit new lows - potentially a troubling sign for Republicans that are on the ballot across the country.

A recent, economy-specific poll by CNBC found that about eight out of 10 Americans view the economy as fair, or poor, about the same number as during the end of the Covid-19 pandemic.

The poll found that just over 63% of Americans are pessimistic about how things stand, including 35% of Republican voters - the highest figure in both of Trump's administrations.

In what may well be another troubling sign for Republican candidates, a significant number of Democrats - 72% - say they are highly interested in the midterms, compared to 62% of Republicans.

Interest rates themselves aren't on the ballot - and are set by the Federal Reserve - but the overall sentiment regarding the US economy is poor, and many voters will hope their their votes result in a Congress next year that can adopt policies they believe will help.

Image source, Reuters

Michelle Fleury
New York business correspondent

The US Federal Reserve is considering a significant change to how it makes interest-rate decisions.

The central bank plans to reduce the number of interest rate setting meetings to seven next year and six in 2028, down from its usual eight meetings a year.

The idea is to use that extra time to step back and take a broader look at monetary policy and the economy.

That could give policymakers more time to assess the data and see the bigger picture. But there’s also a potential trade-off: with fewer scheduled meetings, the Fed could have less flexibility to respond quickly if the economy takes an unexpected turn.

And this isn’t completely out of left field. Fed Governor Kevin Warsh raised the possibility of fewer policy meetings over the summer.

Rachel Clun
Business reporter

The Fed uses interest rate changes to try to improve the economy: the central bank’s main aims are to maximise jobs and keep prices stable.

Stable prices means keeping inflation near its target of 2%.

Raising or lowering interest rates is the Fed’s main tool for getting inflation to that target.

Those changes normally flow through to other interest rates set by commercial banks and other institutions, which in turn affects spending and saving decisions from households and businesses.

Leaving the rates unchanged means rates on things like new mortgages or business loans are also less likely to change. On the flip side, it also means interest rates on cash savings are unlikely to rise.

Read more about how the Fed works and what interest rate changes mean here.

Kevin Warsh's news conference has ended but stay with us as we bring you analysis from our business team on today's interest rates decision and what it may mean for the US economy and upcoming midterm elections.

Image source, Reuters

A reporter asks Warsh how much politics and the upcoming 3 November midterm election played in the Fed's decision not to raise rates.

Inflation and the cost of living are key issues for American voters.

"Politics played no role in the decision," Warsh says.

In the two days the board had its discussion, there wasn't one mention of politics or the upcoming election, he adds.

Warsh is reminded about recent comments by Trump suggesting the Fed board's bipartisan makeup means there are people on it that "would like to see the country do badly in my opinion".

The Fed chair is asked if he agrees with those comments.

But Warsh says he wouldn't respond to statements made by Trump or other public officials.

"We came to the right policy decision for this moment and I am honoured to be here and honoured to be the chairman of this group," he says.

Image source, EPA

The US president has been clear in no uncertain terms that he wants to see interest rates in the US lowered.

While it’s not his decision to make (that falls to the central bank), it hasn’t stopped Trump from making his views heard.

After the Fed raised rates last month for the first time since 2023, Trump took to social media to demand a lower rate.

"Interest Rates in the United States should be 1%, or less, because we are the Best Credit in the World,” he said. "LOWER THE INTEREST RATES FOR THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, AND FAST!”

Image source, Getty Images

Reporters are now asking Warsh questions.

One asks the Fed chair if the group is inching towards raising rates in December, why not raise rates today?

Warsh says that "quashing inflation" is not about a specific date or data point, but rather about the broader objectives and a monetary policy strategy.

He says there's a lot that's happening in the world before the next meeting and he will be watching to see what happens globally.

"We're working on it," Warsh says.

High tech investment is leading US economic acceleration and the jobless rate is lower than a year ago, Warsh says.

The Fed has a dual mandate of maximum employment and stable prices. On the jobs side of its goals, Warsh says that is looking "quite positive".

But on the price side, he reiterates that "inflation is too high" for American households.

"Americans, of course, are still dealing inflation that has been running above the committee's objective for close to six years," he says. "It's our responsibility to get inflation down."

Image source, Getty Images

Fed chair Kevin Warsh is now speaking to the media, following his remarks he's expected to take questions from reporters.

He says the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) maintained the rate, but cautioned that the financial uncertainty remains due to "geopolitical developments".

Warsh says the economy is resilient, but notes that inflation remains elevated.

"The committee will deliver price stability," he added.

Fed chair Kevin Warsh is set to hold a news conference in a few minutes.

He will answer questions from reporters who are likely to ask about the committee's decision to keep rates as they are - and about the overall health of the US economy.

We will bring you his most important lines here.

The US central bank increased interest rates last month for the first time since 2023.

Another increase is widely expected later this year.

Rachel Clun
Business reporter

In its news release justifying why it held the interest rate steady, the Federal Reserve acknowledged that inflation remains high.

But it also said it wants to gather more information on how best to bring it down.

“The committee will deliver price stability,” it said.

The Fed noted that while there was uncertainty, the US economy remained resilient.

“Economic activity is expanding at a strong pace,” the committee said. “Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little."

Rachel Clun
Business reporter

The decision to hold rates steady today was not unanimous.

While 10 of the 12 members of the Federal Open Market Committee voted to keep rates unchanged, two voted to increase rates to 4%-4.25%, from its current 3.75%-4%.

The Fed increased rates last month for the first time in three years, and it is anticipated to raise them again before the year is over.

The US Federal Reserve has announced it will hold interest rates steady at 3.75%-4%.

Michelle Fleury
New York business correspondent

Image source, Getty Images

Some economists argue that today's higher prices are at least partly the result of Trump’s own policies, including tariffs, and the economic fallout from the US-Israel war with Iran.

"The inflation is clearly traceable to Donald Trump," says Peter Morici, a University of Maryland economist who aligns with Republicans. "It's his tariffs and the war. People know that. They see it."

Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs, announced in April 2025, have added to costs for consumers.

A study by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York found the tariffs increased consumer goods prices by about 2.9%.

The impact might have been larger if Trump hadn't later paused some tariffs, struck new trade deals and been blocked by the Supreme Court from using emergency powers to impose many others.

Conflict with Iran has pushed global oil prices higher, lifted the cost of petrol at home and put fresh pressure on household budgets.

Sakshi Venkatraman
Live editor

Many American voters have affordability on their minds right now. But what can the central bank do about it?

The Federal Reserve, or Fed, helps set borrowing costs across the economy, by deciding what to charge banks to borrow through its interest rate range.

When it increases that key interest rate target, consumer banks typically follow with similar moves, making the cost of borrowing and taking out loans more expensive for everyone. That means higher monthly payments on debt like credit cards and car loans for Americans.

It also can drive up interest rates for Treasuries - which in turn in turn increase the rates charged for mortgages.

However higher interest rates can benefit savers, through higher rates of returns on deposits.

Bernd Debusmann Jr
White House reporter

Today's announcement comes just a few days before the US midterm elections, and at a time in which Americans are immensely concerned about the state of the economy.

In most US elections, economic concerns such as inflation are the primary driver for voters, who often cast their ballots in the hopes that, more than anything, their day-to-day financial situation improves.

One poll, released by Pew Research several days ago, found that 84% of registered voters say the the economy is very important to their vote - a fact which is true of both Democrats and Republicans.

Interest rates are set by the Federal Reserve, and raising or lowering them isn't something that voters have any direct control over.

Borrowing costs, however, remain a primary concern, and the decisions of the next Congress could have an impact on inflation - meaning that the issue may well be on the minds of voters next Tuesday.

Rachel Clun
Business reporter

Image source, LightRocket via Getty Images

This will be an extremely closely watched meeting from the Federal Reserve. We are less than a week out from the midterm elections, which are being fought around the country over cost of living issues.

Inflation remains higher than the central bank would like. Last month, the Fed raised interest rates for the first time in three years. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said the board decided to move because "inflation is too high and has been for too long”.

While that may make it sound like another rate rise is a done deal, the Fed also has plenty of reason to pause: with other economic data such as employment not pointing to an overheating economy, the Fed could decided to wait and see if those pressures remain ahead of its next meeting in December.

That would save it the awkwardness of an increase just before the country heads to the polls, and the potential wrath of the president.

On balance, experts expect the bank to hold rates steady. But not for long.