Shin ko Iran da Amurka sun shiga wani sabon zangon yaƙi ne?

Ranar Litinin, 17 ga Agustan 2026, ta zama ƙarshen wa'adin kwanaki 60 da aka bai wa Iran da Amurka domin cimma wata yarjejeniya mai faɗi da za ta kawo ƙarshen yaƙin, ta kuma magance batun shirin nukiliyar Iran, tare da sake buɗe mashigar ruwa ta Hormuz.

Sai dai maimakon cimma yarjejeniya, bangarorin biyu sun ƙalubalanci juna fiye da kowane lokaci.

Yayin da wa'adin kwanaki 60 na cimma yarjejeniya yake ƙarewa, kafafen yaɗa labarai na Amurka sun bayyana wasu dabaru guda biyu da suke kama da juna amma a zahiri sun saɓa, waɗanda Iran da Amurka ke bi a wannan mataki na yaƙin.

Yayin da gwamnatin Donald Trump ke ƙara dogaro da matsin tattalin arziƙi da kuma killace hanyoyin ruwa da rundunar ruwa domin tilasta Iran sassauta matsayinta, jaridar Wall Street Journal ta ce wasu mutane a cikin tsarin jagorancin Iran suna kallon lokutan tsagaita wuta ba a matsayin wata alamar zaman lafiya ba, sai dai a matsayin dama ta shirya wa wata babbar arangama a gaba.

A gefe guda kuma, kafafen yaɗa labarai na Amurka sun bujuro da wata muhimmiyar tambaya a rahotanninsu da muhawarorinsu na ranar Lahadi: Idan wannan yaƙi ya rikide zuwa gwagwarmayar juriya ta dogon lokaci, har yaushe Amurka za ta iya jure wa kuɗaɗen da take kashewa ta fuskar soja, tattalin arziki da tsaro?

"Iran ta yi amfani da lokacin tsagaita wuta wajen shirya wata babbar arangama"

Jaridar Wall Street Journal, a wani rahoto da ta wallafa mai taken "Sirrin Shirin Iran na Faɗaɗa Yaƙi", ta ce saƙonnin sadarwa da aka samu tare da wasu bayanai da hukumomin tsaro na ƙasashen Larabawa suka tattara na nuna sauyi a dabarun shugabannin Iran da shirye-shiryensu na faɗaɗa fagen yaƙi.

A cewar rahoton, bayan rattaba hannu kan wata yarjejeniyar fahimtar juna tsakanin Iran da Amurka a ranar 17 ga Yuni, jami'an gwamnatin Trump sun yi hasashen cewa yarjejeniyar za ta buɗe hanya ga sake bude mashigar ruwa ta Hormuz, tare da rage tashin hankali a yankin.

Sai dai Wall Street Journal, tana mai nakalto jami'an Iran da na ƙasashen Larabawa, ta ce wasu daga cikin shugabannin Iran sun kalli lamarin ta wata fuska dabam.

A cewar jaridar, akwai fargabar cewa yarjejeniyar na iya zama wata hanya ce kawai ta rage matsin lamba kan tattalin arzikin duniya tare da bai wa Amurka da Isra'ila lokaci su shirya munanan hare-hare kan Iran nan gaba.

Saboda haka, wasu ɓangarori a cikin gwamnati sun shafe watanni biyu da suka gabata ba wajen dogaro da tattaunawa ba, sai dai wajen shirya wa wani yaƙi mafi faɗi.

Jaridar ta ce matakan da aka ɗauka sun haɗa da:

Jaridar, tana mai naƙalto jami'an leƙen asiri na ƙasashen Larabawa, ta ce saƙonnin sadarwa tsakanin Iran da ƙungiyoyin da ke ƙawance da ita a Iraki da Yemen sun nuna cewa Tehran yanzu ta fi mayar da hankali kan shirya dakarunta domin faɗaɗa yaƙi da kuma ƙara wa Amurka da ƙawayenta a yankin tsadar rikicin.

Mohammad Hassan Sangtarash, wani masanin harkokin tsaro da ke Tehran, wanda Wall Street Journal ta bayyana a matsayin mai kusanci da gwamnatin Iran, ya shaida wa jaridar cewa akwai ra'ayi da ya bazu a Iran cewa:

"Yaƙin na hakika bai fara ba tukuna."

Ya ce wasu jami'an gwamnatin Iran na kallon abin da ya faru kawo yanzu a matsayin matakai ne na ƙara tsananta rikici sannu a hankali, da nufin raunana ƙarfin Iran kafin a shiga wata babbar arangama.

Har ila yau, Wall Street Journal ta ruwaito cewa Rundunar IRGC ta tattauna da ƙungiyoyin da ke ƙawance da Iran a Iraki, Yemen da Lebanon kan yiwuwar ƙara kai hare-hare yayin da tashin hankali ke ƙara tsananta.

Rahoton ya kuma ce an aika wasu kwamandoji zuwa Yemen domin haɗa kai da mayaƙan Houthi, kuma Iran ta ba su bayanai tare da jerin wuraren da za a iya kai wa hari, ciki har da tashoshin jiragen ruwa da cibiyoyin samar da makamashi a Saudiyya.

A cewar jami'an Amurka, rundunar IRGC ta yi gargaɗi ga wasu ƙasashen Gulf cewa idan Amurka ko ƙawayenta suka kai hare-hare kan cibiyoyin makamashi na Iran, to cibiyoyin makamashinsu su ma za su zama hare-hare.

Yaƙin tattalin arziƙi tsakanin Iran da Amurka

Yayin da Wall Street Journal ta mayar da hankali kan shirye-shiryen Iran na ci gaba da yaƙi, New York Times ta wallafa wani rahoto da ke cewa rikicin ya shiga wani mataki da ya fi kama da "yaƙin tattalin arziki da kuma gwajin juriyar bangarorin biyu."

Jaridar ta ce wa'adin kwanaki 60 da aka shimfiɗa bayan yarjejeniyar watan Yuni domin cimma wata babbar yarjejeniya kan kawo ƙarshen yaƙi da kuma warware takaddamar shirin nukiliyar Iran ya kusan zama mara tasiri.

A sakamakon haka, Amurka ta sake komawa amfani da takunkumin tattalin arziki da kuma matakan ruwan soja domin ƙara matsin lamba kan Iran.

Wannan ba sabon salo ba ne, domin ya yi kama da wasu manufofin da Amurka ta yi amfani da su a lokuta daban-daban don ware Iran ta fuskar tattalin arziki, ciki har da lokacin wa'adin farko na shugaba Donald Trump. Sai dai har yanzu ana saɓani kan ko matsin tattalin arziki kaɗai zai iya tilasta wa Tehran sauya matsayinta.

A wannan makon, Sakataren Baitulmalin Amurka, Scott Bessent, ya ce Washington na shirin ɗaukar sabbin matakan tattalin arziki kan Iran waɗanda, a cewarsa, za su fi tsauri fiye da duk wani mataki da aka taɓa gani a baya.

Kamfanin dillancin labarai na Reuters ya ruwaito cewa daga cikin matakan da ake nazari akwai ƙara matsin lamba kan masu sayen man fetur na Iran da kuma cibiyoyin kuɗi da ake zargin suna da alaƙa da harkokin kasuwancin ƙasar.

Sai dai a lokaci guda, akwai babban saɓani da har yanzu ba a iya warwarewa ba. Iran na cewa dole ne Amurka ta fara ɗaukar wasu matakai, ciki har da sakin wasu kadarorin Tehran da aka tsare, kafin a samu ci gaba. A nata ɓangaren, gwamnatin Trump na son Iran ta sassauta takunkumin da ta kakaba game da zirga-zirga a mashigar ruwa ta Hormuz kafin ita ma ta ɗauki wani mataki.

Ta haka ne bangarorin biyu suke ci gaba da gwaji da juna, inda kowanne ke fatan lokaci zai tilasta ɗayan ya yi ƙarin sassauci.

Wannan yanayi ya haifar da wani matsayi na ƙullewa da cikas a rikicin, inda babu ɓangaren da ke son ja da baya, amma kuma babu wata alamar samun yarjejeniya a kusa.

Har yaushe Amurka za ta iya jure wa tsadar wannan yaƙi?"

Amma tambayar ita ce: har zuwa yaushe Amurka za ta iya ci gaba da ɗaukar nauyin wannan yanayi?

Wannan ita ce tambayar da aka tattauna a ranar Lahadi a wata hira da tashar ABC ta yi da Admiral Mike Mullen, tsohon shugaban kwamitin hafsoshin rundunonin sojin Amurka.

A cikin shirin "This Week" na ABC, Mullen ya yi magana kan yadda ake amfani da jirgin ruwan yaƙi Abraham Lincoln na dogon lokaci.

Ya ce jirgin, wanda ke ɗauke da kusan sojojin ruwa da na ƙasa 5,000, ya shafe kwanaki 268 a cikin teku, kuma ya yi sama da kwanaki 200 ba tare da tsayawa a tashar jirgin ruwa ba.

Jirgin ya taka rawa a ayyukan sojin Amurka da suka shafi yaƙin da Iran, da kuma ayyukan killace zirga-zirgar ruwa da suka shafi mashigar Hormuz.

A cewar Mullen, a yanayin aiki na yau da kullum, jiragen yaƙin Amurka kan shiga tashoshin jiragen ruwa da ke yanki domin sojoji su samu hutawa, a yi gyare-gyare ga jiragen, kuma a samar da sauran buƙatun aiki.

Sai dai sansanonin Amurka da ke Bahrain, Kuwait da Haɗaɗɗiyar Daular Larabawa, waɗanda aka saba amfani da su wajen tallafa wa dakaru da ba su damar hutawa, sun fuskanci hare-haren Iran a lokacin yaƙin, lamarin da ya sa ba a iya amfani da su kamar yadda aka saba.

Mullen ya ce har ma da tsibirin Diego Garcia, wanda Amurka ta fara amfani da shi a matsayin wurin da ya fi aminci, shi ma ya zama abin kai wa hari daga Iran.

A sakamakon haka, ya ce ya zama da wahala a samu wuraren da jiragen ruwa za su ajiye cikin aminci, wanda ke tilasta wa dakaru ci gaba da zama a cikin teku na tsawon lokaci fiye da yadda aka saba.

Mullen ya kuma yi magana kan ƙarancin jiragen ɗaukar jiragen sama na yaƙi da Amurka ke da su. Rundunar ruwan Amurka tana da jirage 11 kacal na wannan nau'i, kuma ya ce yana ganin za a buƙaci ƙarin jiragen idan Washington ta ci gaba da amfani da su a irin wannan faɗin aiki da kuma na tsawon lokaci.

A cewarsa, halin da ake ciki yanzu yana nufin Amurka tana kashe wani ɓangare na ƙarfin sojinta na gaba ne domin biyan buƙatun yaƙin da take fuskanta a yanzu.

"Wannan yana nufin ana sadaukar da wasu daga cikin damar sojin da za a buƙata a nan gaba domin gudanar da yaƙin da ake yi a halin yanzu," in ji Mullen.

A taƙaice, wani ɓangare na masu sharhi a Amurka na ganin cewa rikicin ba wai kawai gwajin juriyar Iran ba ne, har ila yau, yana zama gwajin ikon Amurka na ci gaba da ɗaukar nauyin yaƙi na dogon lokaci ta fuskar soja, tattalin arziki da tsaro.

Me jama'a ke so Trump ya yi?

Yayin da yaƙin ke ci gaba tare da ƙara jawo asarar tattalin arziƙi, akwai alamun cewa goyon bayan cigaba da rikicin na raguwa, har ma a tsakanin masu goyon bayan Donald Trump.

Wani binciken jin ra'ayin jama'a da gidauniyar Public First ta gudanar wa Politico ya nuna cewa a watan Mayu, rabin masu goyon bayan ƙungiyar magoya bayan Trump ta MAGA sun yi imanin cewa yaƙin da ake yi da Iran ya cancanci irin kuɗaɗen da ake kashewa.

Sai dai yanzu adadin ya ragu zuwa fiye da kashi ɗaya bisa uku kacal, bayan ya faɗi da kusan kashi 13 cikin ɗari a watanni biyu kacal.

Bugu da ƙari, kashi 37 cikin ɗari na magoya bayan MAGA sun ce Amurka ta ci gaba da shiga yaƙin muddin ba zai haifar da ƙarin tsada ba, idan aka kwatanta da kashi 29 cikin ɗari a watan Mayu.

Haka kuma, kusan mutum ɗaya cikin biyar daga masu jefa ƙuri'a masu goyon bayan MAGA na ganin cewa ya kamata Amurka ta kawo ƙarshen yaƙin da Iran, ko da kuwa mene ne sakamakon hakan.

Waɗannan alƙaluma na nuna cewa adawar ci gaba da yaƙin, wadda tun farko ta kasance a tsakanin wani ɓangare na al'ummar Amurka, yanzu ta fara shiga cikin mafi kusancin mabiyan Trump.

A wannan yanayi, ɗan majalisar dokokin jam'iyyar Republican kuma tsohon jami'in rundunar sojin saman Amurka, Don Bacon, ya shaida wa shirin "Face the Nation" na CBS cewa Donald Trump ya haifar da "fatan da ya wuce ƙima" ta hanyar maimaita cewa yarjejeniya da Iran na kusa da cimmawa.

Bacon ya ce a farkon yaƙin mutane da dama sun yi tunanin za a kawo ƙarshensa cikin wata ɗaya ko biyu. Amma yanzu ya ce ya kamata a gaya wa jama'a gaskiya cewa takaddamar da Iran na iya ɗaukar lokaci mai tsawo fiye da yadda aka yi hasashe tun farko.

Ya kuma goyi bayan ci gaba da matsin tattalin arziƙi da matakan hana zirga-zirgar ruwa, yana mai cewa Tehran ta ɗauki ƙoƙarin Trump na son cimma yarjejeniya cikin gaggawa a matsayin alamar rauni.

A cewarsa, ya kamata shugaban Amurka ya rage magana kan yiwuwar cimma yarjejeniya, ya kuma bar takunkumin tattalin arziƙi su ci gaba da yin tasirinsu a kan Iran.

Sai dai Bacon ya kuma yi gargaɗi kan farashin da Amurka kanta ke biya wajen ci gaba da yaƙin. Ya ce wasu muhimman makamai suna raguwa a rumbun makaman ƙasar, ciki har da makamai masu linzami na Patriot da kuma cruise missiles.

A taƙaice, kalaman Don Bacon da sakamakon binciken jin ra'ayin jama'a sun nuna cewa gwamnatin Trump na fuskantar matsin lamba iri biyu a lokaci guda:

A gefe guda, akwai masu goyon bayansa da ke son ya ci gaba da matsin tattalin arziƙi da na soja kan Iran.

A ɗaya gefen kuma, akwai wasu daga cikin mabiyansa da ke son a kawo ƙarshen yaƙin domin dakatar da tsadar da yake jawowa.

Saboda haka, babban ƙalubalen da ke gaban Trump shi ne yadda zai daidaita tsakanin masu son ƙara matsa lamba kan Iran da kuma waɗanda ke neman a kawo ƙarshen rikicin.