Umwaka umwe nyuma: Uburyo bune imisoro ya Trump yahinduye ubukungu bw'isi

Ubwo Perezida Donald Trump wa Amerika yatangizaga intambara y'ubucuruzi mu kwezi kwa kane umwaka ushize, yasezeranyije ibihe bishya ku gihugu cye - arahira ko azazahura inganda, azamure amafaranga leta yinjiza, kandi afungure amasoko mashya.

Umwaka umwe nyuma yaho, imisoro ku byinjira muri Amerika ihagaze iri hejuru cyane kurusha ibindi bihe mu myaka za mirongo, aho ikigero rusange kiri ku 10% kuvuye kuri 2.5% cyariho mu ntangiriro z'umwaka ushize.

Dore uburyo bune byahinduye ubucuruzi bw'isi:

1. Gucanamo kwa Amerika n‘Ubushinwa kwariyongereye

Trump yahungabanyije isi mu kwa Mata(4) gushize, ku munsi yise "Umunsi w'Ubwigenge," ubwo yashyiragaho umusoro fatizo wa 10% ku bicuruzwa byinshi biva mu mahanga – yibanda ku bicuruzwa bimwe biva kandi yashyizemo imisoro iri hejuru cyane ku bihugu bimwe nk'Ubushinwa.

Ubwo Ubushinwa bwasubizaga bukora nk'ibyo, imisoro yarazamutse yikuba gatatu kandi mu byumweru bike yatumye ubucuruzi hagati y'ibi bihugu byombi buhagarara.

Ibyo bibazo byaje kugabanuka gato. Mu mpera za 2025, ibicuruzwa by'Abashinwa byari biriho imisoro, cyangwa amahooro yo ku mipaka, iri hejuru ku rugero rwa 20% ugereranyije n'intangiriro z'uwo mwaka.

Ariko ubucuruzi hagati y'ibi bihugu byombi bwakomeje kugira igihombo gikomeye.

Agaciro k'ibicuruzwa Amerika yatumizaga mu Bushinwa kamanutse hafi 30% umwaka ushize. Ibicuruzwa Amerika yoherezaga mu Bushinwa nabyo byagabanutse bigera hejuru gato ya 25%.

Kugera ku mpera z'umwaka ushize, ibicuruzwa by'Abashinwa byari bigize munsi ya 10% by'ibyo Amerika yatumizaga byose - bigana n’urugero rwari ruriho mu 2000 kandi byari munshi ho 20% ugereranyije no mu mwaka wa 2016, igihe Trump yatorwaga ubwa mbere.

Kwiyongera kw'ibyo Amerika itumiza biva muri Vietnam na Mexique, aho ibigo by'Abashinwa byongereye ishoramari ryabyo, byasobanuye ko ubucuruzi hagati y'ibihugu byombi butahagaze burundu.

Ariko imibare igaragaza ko gutandukana kwatangiye mu gihe cya manda ya mbere ya Trump byageze aho byari bikabije, nk'uko Davin Chor, umwarimu n'umuyobozi w'icyicaro cy'ubumenyi muri Kaminuza ya Dartmouth, abivuga.

Avuga ko ku byoherezwa hagati y'ibihugu byombi "byabaye ibintu bitangaje kandi byari ibyemezo bikomeye”.

Agira ati: "Sintekereza ko wakwitega ko ibintu bizasubira uko byari bisanzwe".

2. Abafatanyabikorwa bashakiye ahandi

Impinduka z'imisoro za Trump zari zirenze kure gusa itangazo rye ry'Umunsi w'Ubwigenge. Yanazamuye imisoro ku bicuruzwa bimwe nk'icyuma, imbaho, n'imodoka, ndetse akuraho amategeko yemereraga kwinjiza nta misoro ibicuruzwa by'agaciro ko munsi ya $800, hamwe n'izindi ngamba.

Nubwo hari iyo misoro mishya, ibyo Amerika yatumije hanze byiyongereyeho kurenga 4% mu mwaka ushize, byagabanutse gahoro ugereranyije na 2024 ariko byerekana uko igihugu cyarasaga nikinjira mu kwigunga.

Gusa n'ubundi, izo ngamba zatumye ibigo byinshi mu bindi bitangira kureba andi masoko atari Amerika.

Ibi byabaye no ku gihugu nk’Ubwongereza, cyari cyashyiriweho imisoro mito - ugereranyije n'ibindi - ya 10% ku bicuruzwa byacyo.

Nubwo Amerika yakomeje kuba aho ibicuruzwa by'Abongereza byajyaga cyane mu 2025, ibyo bwohereza muri Amerika byaragabanutse, mu gihe ibyo bwohereza mu bihugu nk‘Ubudage, Ubufaransa na Poland byazamutseho.

"Bamwe bashobora gutungurwa - ubucuruzi ku isi yose... bwakomeje gukora neza cyane," nk'uko umwarimu w'ubukungu Jun Du wo muri Kaminuza ya Alston abivuga. Yongeraho ati: "Habayeho guhindura imiyoboro myinshi y'ubucuruzi."

Amerika yageze ku ntego yo kumvisha bimwe mu bihugu kwemera impinduka mu bucuruzi zigamije kongera amahirwe ku bigo by'Amerika, nko ku bahinzi, kugurisha mu mahanga.

Ariko ibyo Trump yakoze byanatumye abafatanyabikorwa bamwe bibaza ku impinduka zidahuye n'inyungu za Amerika, no kuri Canada, Trump amaherezo yakuyeho imisoro ku bicuruzwa byinshi, agaruka ku masezerano y'ubucuruzi bw'Amerika y'Amajyaruguru.

Vuba aha, Canada yemeye kugabanya imisoro ku modoka z'amashanyarazi zikorerwa mu Bushinwa, iva ku 100% igera hafi kuri 6.1%.

Ibi byagaragaje gutera umugongo gukomeye Amerika bagana ku Bushinwa, kandi byari bibi cyane ku bigo by'imodoka bya Amerika, bimaze igihe kinini biyoboye ku isoko rya Canada.

"Icyo bitera impungenge si urwego rw'imisoro ubwarwo, ahubwo ni ubwigenge bw'umuntu umwe,"nk'uko Petros Mavroidis, umwarimu muri Columbia Law School, abivuga.

3. Umwuka mubi wariyongeye mu nshuti

Ingendo z'Abanya-Canada bajya muri Amerika zagabanutse ku kigero cya 20% umwaka ushize, biteza igihombo ku bukungu bw‘Amerika kingana n'amadolari miliyari enye(4) z'Amerika, nk'uko imibare ya US Travel Association ibigaragaza.

Imisoro kandi yatumye bigora Amerika gushyigikirwa n'ibindi bihugu ku bibazo binini cyangwa bito, yaba ari intambara muri Iran cyangwa kwagura imyaka 28 y'ihagarikwa ry'imisoro ku bicuruzwa by'ikoranabuhanga nko gusakaza amajwi n'amashusho (streaming), nk'uko Mavroidis abivuga.

"Ni gute ushobora gusaba gukorana neza mugihe uhangayikishije abandi ku bucuruzi?" Arabaza.

Ati: "Utakaza za mbaraga ubundi zari intsinzi ikomeye ya Amerika. Ibi byose byarahindutse."

Nubwo kwihimura kw'ibindi bihugu ku misoro ya Amerika kukiri hasi, nta cyizere ko bizaguma gutyo, nk'uko umwarimu w'ubukungu Michael Pearce wo muri Oxford Economics abivuga.

Yavuze ko imyitwarire ya Trump yatumye ibindi bihugu bishishikarira kureba politiki zabyo zo kurengera ibihugu byazo kurushaho.

Akomeza avuga ko "icyo ari cyo kibazo gikomeye, kuko igihe kigenda tuzatangira kubona ukwihimura [kuri Amerika] mu bundi buryo.

Ati: "Uko ni ko akaga katewe n'intambara y'ubucuruzi gashobora kuzakwirakwira."

4. Izamuka ry’ibiciro muri Amerika

Imisoro Trump yari yarakangishije ku munsi 'w'Umunsi w'Ubwigenge' yaje kuyikuraho ku bicuruzwa byinshi nyuma yo kugirana amasezerano n'ibihugu nabyo byagabanyije imisoro ku bicuruzwa bya Amerika.

Inganda zabaye mu bihe byo kugabanya ibyo zikora umwaka ushize, mu gihe ishoramari ry’abanyamahanga muri Amerika naryo ryagabanutse, ariko ibigo bimwe, nko mu nganda z'imiti, byari byiyemeje kongera ishoramari ryabyo, nk'uko isesengura rya Tax Foundation ry'inyandiko z'ubuyobozi bubigaragaza

Mu kwezi kwa Gashyantare(2), Urukiko rw'Ikirenga rwa Amerika rwahagaritse imisoro yose 'y'Umunsi w'Ubwigenge', ndetse runenga kuzamura imisoro leta yifuje gukusanya umwaka ushize. Leta ya Trump ubu igomba kugarura igice cy’arenga by'amadolari miliyari 260 yakusanyije.

Ibiro bya Perezida wa Amerika byavuze ko politiki zayo zizafata igihe kugira ngo zigere ku musaruro, bivuga ku ishoramari rinini ryemewe n'ibigo n'ibihugu.

Ariko ubu, igihombo nyamukuru cyatewe n'imisoro muri Amerika ni uguhangana kw'ibigo n'izamuka ry'ibiciro ku baguzi .

Hafi 55% by'iyi misoro mishya byahise bigera ku muguzi wa nyuma mu mwaka ushize, nk'uko ikigo Goldman Sachs kibivuga.

Ibi byatumye umwaka ushize ibiciro ku isoko muri Amerika bizamuka biva ku rugero rwa hafi 0.5% bigera hafi kuri 3%, ugereranyije n'uko byari kuba bitariho imisoro, nk'uko Pearce abivuga.

Kuko ubushobozi bwo guhaha ari ikibazo kiri mu mitwe ya benshi muri Amerika ubu bigoye aba Repubulikani kugira ibyo bizeza rubanda mbere y'amatora yo hagati mu kwezi kwa 11.