Icyo Iran n'Amerika bakura mu masezerano n'impamvu impande zombi zishobora kugorwa no kuyubahiriza

Nyuma y'iminsi irenga 100 Amerika na Israel bitangiye kumisha ibisasu kuri Iran, impande zombi zirimo kwigamba intsinzi – ikimenyetso cy'ukuntu buri ruhande rwari rucyeneye gusohoka mu ntambara.

Abategetsi bavuga ko ayo masezerano yarangije intambara, ariko ibiganiro bikomeye cyane ubu ni bwo bitangiye.

Impande zombi zashimagije ayo masezerano ku baturage babyo nk'intsinzi, ariko nkuko abasesenguzi bacu babisobanura hano, nta ruhande na rumwe rwabemeje mu buryo bwuzuye ndetse abayanenga bo muri buri gihugu bavuga ko yabayemo guhara (kwigomwa) ibintu byinshi cyane.

Kuri Iran, amasezerano n'Amerika atanga ikintu cy'ingenzi nk'agahenge: uburyo bwo kwigamba ko itarokotse intambara gusa ndetse itamanitse amaboko, ko ahubwo yayisohotsemo ikomeye cyane kurushaho.

Kuva mu ntangiriro, intego nyamukuru ya Tehran ntiyari iyo gutsinda byanze bikunze Amerika na Israel mu buryo busanzwe bwa gisirikare. Yari iyo gusohoka mu ntambara Repubulika ya Kisilamu ya Irani igihagaze bwuma, ubutegetsi bwayo bugikora ndetse n'aho ihagaze mu biganiro hatashwanyutse burundu.

Amasezerano y'Ubwumvikane (cyangwa Memorandum of Understanding, MoU) – nkuko ayo masezerano yitwa – atuma Iran ivuga ko ibyo yabigezeho.

Iyo nyandiko, yashyizweho umukono buri ruhande ukwarwo na Perezida w'Amerika Donald Trump na Perezida wa Iran Masoud Pezeshkian, asobanura gahunda y'ibiganiro by'iminsi 60 kuri gahunda ya nikleyeri ya Iran ariko iyo nyandiko inemeza ihagarikwa ry'ako kanya ry'ibikorwa bya gisirikare mu ngamba (urugamba) zose, harimo no muri Libani, kubaha ubusugire bwa buri ruhande, kongera gufungura Umuhora wa Hormuz no gukuraho izitirwa ryo mu nyanja ku mato ya Iran.

Inshingano z'aka kanya za buri ruhande zirakomeye, ariko muri rusange ni nkeya. Tehran yemeye gutuma amato y'ubucuruzi anyura muri Hormuz mu mutekano, ikintu cyamaze igihe kirekire ari uko kimeze mbere y'intambara, ishimangira ko itazakora intwaro kirimbuzi za nikleyeri, ndetse yemera kujya mu biganiro kuri ejo hazaza ha gahunda yayo ya uranium itunganyije ku rwego rwo hejuru cyane.

Ibyo Amerika yiyemeje uko bigaragara biri muri rusange cyane. Nkuko bikubiye muri iyo MoU, Washington izatangira gukuraho izitira ryayo ryo mu nyanja, ikureho kubuza ibikomoka kuri peteroli bya Iran koherezwa mu mahanga, itume imitungo ya Iran yafatiriwe cyangwa yabujijwe gukoreshwa yongera gukoreshwa, Amerika kandi ikore iganisha ku kudohora ibihano no gukorana n'abafatanyabikorwa bayo bo mu karere muri gahunda yo kongera kubaka Iran n'iterambere ry'ubukungu, gahunda ifite agaciro ka miliyari nibura 300 z'amadolari y'Amerika.

Ibyo bifasha gusobanura impamvu ukuntu ayo masezerano yakiriwe mu bayanenga bo muri Iran, kugeza ubu kwabaye ukutayavugaho byinshi. Iyo MoU iha ubutegetsi bwa Iran igihe gihagije cyo kugaragaza ayo masezerano nk'intsinzi: ubusugire bwa Iran buremewe, izibira ryitezwe gukurwaho, kudohora cyangwa gukuraho ibihano ni ingingo iri ku meza y'ibiganiro ndetse inkunga yo kongera kubaka iravugwa mu buryo bweruye.

Ariko birashoboka ko uko kutayavugaho byinshi kutazaramba. Ndetse n'igisubizo cya mbere kuri ayo masezerano cy'umutegetsi w'ikirenga wa Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, cyari kirimo gushyira mu gaciro mu buryo bwitondewe: yemeye ko ayo masezerano akomeza, mu gihe asobanura neza ko yemewe ku nshingano y'Akanama k'Ikirenga k'Umutekano ka Iran.

Ibibazo by'ingorabahizi cyane byarasubitswe, ntibyacyemuwe. Ejo hazaza ha uranium itunganyije cyane ya Iran, ikigero cyuko inganda ziyitunganya zingana hamwe no kongera kubaka ibigo bya nikleyeri byangiritse, ubu bigiye kuganirwaho ku gitutu cyinshi.

Ibyo biteje ikibazo ku butegetsi bwa Tehran. Ibitangazamakuru bya leta, umutwe wihariye wo mu ngabo za Iran witwa Revolutionary Guards, inteko ishingamategeko hamwe n'abakomeye b'abahezanguni, bamaze ibyumweru babwira abayoboke babo ko Iran yatsinze Amerika na Israel. Ubu ibyitezwe ni byinshi cyane. Kugira icyo Iran ihara (yigomwa) icyo ari cyo cyose kuri gahunda ya uranium itunganyije cyangwa ku bikorwa-remezo bya nikleyeri, bishobora kubonwa n'abanenga ayo masezerano nko kwemera guhara ikintu nyuma y'intsinzi yari yatangajwe.

Ariko kwemera guhara na byo ubwabyo bishobora guteza ibyago. Niba Tehran yanze kuva kuri uranium itunganyije cyane cyangwa ku miterere y'ejo hazaza ha gahunda yayo ya nikleyeri, aya masezerano ashobora guhirima ndetse n'agahenge ubwako kakaba ku gitutu. Ibyo byakongerera imbaraga ab'i Washington no muri Israel basanzwe bavuga ko Iran yakoresheje gusa iyo MoU mu gutinza ibintu ndetse ko iyo nyandiko y'ubwumvikane ishobora kongera gusunikira impande zombi mu ntambara.

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, umukuru w'inteko ishingamategeko ya Iran akaba n'umukuru w'itsinda rya Iran mu biganiro, yagerageje kugaragaza ibiganiro mu magambo yo kutava ku izima. Kuri televiziyo ya leta, yagize ati: "Sindi umudipolomate. Ariko nzi neza uburyo bwo gutuma Amerika isobanukirwa."

Uko Khamenei yabyakiriye byatumye umurimo ukomera cyane kurushaho. Yavuze ko urebye afite ukundi abibona, ariko ko yatanze uruhushya rwuko iyo MoU ishyirwaho umukono nyuma yuko Perezida Pezeshkian, nk'Umukuru w'Akanama k'Ikirenga k'Umutekano k'igihugu, yemeye inshingano yo guharanira uburenganzira bwa Iran n'ubw'inshuti za Iran.

Iyo mvugo ituma akomeza kuba hafi cyane y'amasezerano kugira ngo bitume akomeza, ariko akaba ayitaruye cyane mu kwirinda ko amwegekwaho igihe yaba ahirimye. Ku ntumwa za Iran mu biganiro, bishobora kugabanya amahirwe yuko hagira ikigerwaho. Zigomba gutuma Amerika inyurwa ariko ntizigaragare nk'izarenze imirongo ntarengwa umutegetsi ubwe atemeye mu buryo bwuzuye.

Imvugo ya Ghalibaf igenewe cyane ab'imbere mu gihugu muri Iran cyo kimwe n'ab'i Washington. Uwo wahoze ari komanda w'umutwe w'ingabo wa Revolutionary Guards, agomba gushimagiza ayo masezerano ku bayoboke b'abahezanguni bafite urwicyekwe cyane ku kugirana ubwumvikane n'Amerika.

Igereranya hagati y'amasezerano kuri nikleyeri yo mu mwaka wa 2015, byanze bikunze ntiwaryirengagiza. I Washington, bamwe bashobora kugaragaza ko iyo MoU ari mbi cyane kurusha icyiswe Gahunda Rusange Yimbitse y'Ibikorwa (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), nkuko amasezerano yahozeho mbere yitwaga, bakavuga ko Trump yemeye iyo gahunda ikuraho ibihano kuri Iran ndetse igaha Iran inyungu zo mu bukungu, mu gihe isubika ibibazo by'ingorabahizi cyane bya nikleyeri.

Ariko i Tehran, ibyago biratandukanye. Abahezanguni bashobora gushinja leta n'itsinda ry'intumwa ziri mu biganiro kuba basubiyemo icyo abo babona nk'ubugambanyi bwo mu 2015, ubwo uwari Perezida Hassan Rouhani yanenzwe n'abadepite, ibitangazamakuru bikomeye ku bya kera hamwe n'abanyapolitike b'abacyeba, bose bamushinje guhara ibintu byinshi cyane kuri gahunda ya nikleyeri ya Iran.

Kuri Pezeshkian na Ghalibaf, ingorane ni uguhindura gahunda y'agahenge ikavamo intsinzi ya politike mbere yuko abayamagana batangira kugira imbaraga.

Iran yungutse akanya, iruhuka igitutu cya gisirikare cy'ako kanya ndetse biranashoboka ko hari ibyo yakwemererwa bikomeye mu bukungu. Yanirinze umusozo Washington yasabaga cyane ku mugaragaro: kumanika amaboko byuzuye.

Ariko ntirabona amasezerano ya nyuma. MoU yongerera imbaraga ukuboko kwa Iran mu gihe kigufi kuko ubutegetsi bwarokotse kandi Washington hari ibyo yiyemeje bigaragara. Ibyago kuri Tehran ni uko iminsi 60 iri imbere yashyira ku karubanda icyuho kiri hagati y'ishusho y'intsinzi yashimagijwe ku baturage imbere mu gihugu n'ibyo kwigomwa byo gutuma intambara itagaruka.

Iran yasohotse mu gice cya mbere cy'intambara ikomeye cyane kurusha uko benshi bari babyiteze, ariko ingorane ikurikiyeho ishobora kuba ikomeye cyane kurushaho: kugumana abayoboke bayo muri politike bagakomeza gushyigikira iyi gahunda mu gihe kirekire gihagije kugeza amasezerano ya nyuma agezweho, ariko itanagize ibyo yemera byatuma igaragara nkaho hari ibyo yigomwe cyangwa ndetse ko yatsinzwe.

Trump yashimye amasezerano nk'"intsinzi ikomeye' ariko abayanenga bavuga ko arimo ukwigomwa byinshi cyane

Donald Trump yashimye amasezerano nk'"intsinzi ikomeye" kuri Leta Zunze Ubumwe z'Amerika, amaherezo yagejeje ku ntego rusange ye y'intambara yo kwirinda ko Iran igera ku ntwaro kirimbuzi ya nikleyeri.

Ariko mu gihe cya vuba kiri imbere, "intsinzi" y'aka kanya cyane ni ukongera gufungura ubukungu mpuzamahanga bivuye ku ifungurwa ry'Umuhora wa Hormuz.

Mu gihe intambara yakomezaga ndetse n'Umuhora wa Hormuz urebye ahanini ugakomeza gufungwa, amakusanyabitekerezo yakomeje kumvikanisha ko abaturage b'Amerika bari barimo kurushaho kurakazwa n'ibiciro biri hejuru by'ibikomoka kuri peteroli ndetse n'icyo intambara ivuze kuri bo mu rugo.

Kutanyurwa n'uko ubukungu bwifashe yari imwe mu mpamvu z'ibanze zatumye abatora basubiza Trump ku butegetsi muri White House mu 2024, kandi n'icyo babona ko intambara perezida yahisemo gutangiza irimo kubabaza mu mifuka yabo, byari byarahindutse ikintu cyangiza Trump muri politike.

Kandi nubwo we ubwe atazaba ari ku rupapuro rw'itora mu matora yo hagati muri manda yo mu Gushyingo (11), uko guhangayika kwaje mu gihe kigoye kuri bagenzi be bo mu ishyaka ry'abarepubulikani, benshi muri bo bagiye bahura n'abaturage bagenda barushaho kurakara bo mu bice bahagarariye, hamwe n'abashobora kuzatora barimo kurushaho kuvuga cyane ku kuba intambara ishobora kuzamara igihe kirekire imirwano yararangiye ariko nta masezerano yagezweho yo kuyirangiza.

Mu kuzirikana ibyo, aya masezerano aha Trump ubuhumekero ndetse, ni ko inshuti ze muri politike zibyizera, n'ubushobozi bwo kwigaragaza nk'umuntu washoboye kurangiza intambara mu gihe cyihuse muri rusange kandi akirinda igisa nko kwishora mu makimbirane n'amahanga y'intambara z'urudaca, yiyamamaje yamagana.

Ariko abanenga ayo masezerano – barimo na bamwe bo mu ishyaka rye ry'abarepubulikani – bamaze gushinja Trump gutanga byinshi cyane, bagereranyije n'uko ubundi bavuga ko kwigomwa bigenda mu masezerano.

Izingiro ry'icyo gitekerezo ni ukuba yarasezeranyije ko Iran izungukira mu kigega cya miliyari 300 zo kongera kuyubaka.

Trump yanditse ku rubuga nkoranyambaga rwa Truth Social ati: "Nta bwishyu bwa miliyari 300 z'amadolari kuri Iran bikozwe n'Amerika buhari. Ayo ni amakuru y'ibinyoma."

"Igihari cyonyine kuri Amerika ni intsinzi, ibiciro biri hasi cyane by'ibikomoka kuri peteroli..."

Nubwo Trump n'abandi bo mu butegetsi bwe na bo basobanuye neza ko nta dolari na rimwe muri ayo rizava muri Amerika mu buryo butaziguye, hari bamwe mu bo mu butegetsi bihangayikishije.

Senateri Ted Cruz uhagarariye leta ya Texas – ubundi usanzwe ari inshuti yo kwizerwa ya Trump – yabwiye ikinyamakuru The Hill ati: "Amateka atwigisha ko gutanga za miliyari z'amadolari ku bategetsi b'abasazi bashingiye ku idini bashaka kutwica atari igitekerezo cyiza."

"Ntekereza ko perezida arimo kugirwa inama mbi cyane."

Tucker Carlson, utangaza ibiganiro byo mu murongo wo gukomera ku bya kera, nubwo aherutse kunenga ubutegetsi bw'Amerika ariko akaba akiri umwe mu bakomeye cyane bashyigikiye gahunda ya Trump yo kongera kugira Amerika igihangange (MAGA), we yabivuze arushijeho kudaca ku ruhande.

Yatangarije mu kiganiro cye cyo ku rubuga X ati: "Iki ni igihombo giteye isoni cyane kuri Leta Zunze Ubumwe [z'Amerika]."

"Iki ni igihombo."

By'umwihariko, ubutegetsi byanabaye ngombwa ko bwemera ko intego nyinshi zabwo zo mu ntambara zisa nk'izahindutse ibitari iby'ingenzi bitavugwa no muri ya MoU.

Urugero, mu ntangiriro y'iyi ntambara, Trump yasezeranyije ko ingabo z'Amerika "zizasenya misile zabo ndetse zirambike hasi urwego rwabo rwa misile", rusigare "ruhanaguwe".

Mu buryo nk'ubwo, iyi MoU nta gukomoza kuyirimo kujyanye n'umubano wa Iran n'imitwe yitwaje intwaro ikoresha yo muri ako karere, nubwo muri Werurwe (3) Trump yasezeranyije ko Amerika yari irimo gukora kugira ngo "ubutegetsi bwa Iran ntibushobore gukomeza guha intwaro, gutera inkunga no kuyobora ingabo zo hanze y'imipaka yabwo".

Ubutegetsi bw'Amerika ubu bwasubiye inyuma kuri iyo ntego. Visi Perezida JD Vance yabwiye abanyamakuru ko Amerika "yiteze" ko umutwe wa Hezbollah, ufashwa na Iran wo muri Libani, uzirinda kurasa ku Banya-Israel.

Yongeyeho ko uduhenge "turimo akajagari bucye" ndetse ko "gukozanyaho" gushobora kwitegwa kubaho.

Ibyo byonyinye ubwabyo bizatuma ayo masezerano adakundwa mu barepubulikani babona ko inshingano y'Amerika ku mutekano wa Israel ari ikintu ntakorwaho muri politike y'Amerika.