Kieran Kelly
Live reporter

Image source, EPA/Shutterstock

It has been a frantic few days in politics.

This time last week, Andy Burnham wasn't even an MP - and now the former Greater Manchester mayor is widely expected to become the next prime minister. Here's a reminder of how we got here:

19 June - Burnham emphatically wins the Makerfield by-election, taking more votes than all his rivals combined. He describes his victory as a "turning point", while Starmer insists he will fight any leadership challenge.

20 June - The prime minister is in Chequers, his country retreat, contemplating his political fate with his wife Victoria. It follows conversations with Cabinet ministers, who urged him to step aside.

21 June - Signs start to appear that Starmer is about to resign - Business Secretary Peter Kyle tells the BBC that Starmer is reflecting on "political realities".

22 June - Starmer announces his resignation shortly after 9:30 BST, confirming that a new leader will be in place by 1 September at the latest - it is likely to be sooner.

Shortly after, Burnham boards a train from Manchester to London, where he is sworn in as the new MP for Makerfield. By this point, he has confirmed he will run to replace Starmer.

23 June - Starmer and Burnham hold secret talks as No 10 confirms the prime minister wants an "orderly transition".

24 June - The path to No 10 appears to clear for Burnham with Darren Jones, a senior Cabinet minister, throwing his weight behind the former Greater Manchester mayor.

Image source, Andy Burnham

Image source, PA Media

With it now expected that Andy Burnham will want a new chancellor to replace Rachel Reeves if he becomes prime minister, one of her former political directors has defended her decision-making.

"It's not clear at the moment" what the rational for removing Reeves would be, says Matt Pound, who worked for the chancellor until March.

But he tells the Today programme: "We also have to accept that her commitment to fiscal responsibility has also caused consternation in the Parliamentary Labour Party, who do not feel that she has taken some decisions that have been helpful to them in getting re-elected."

"Tough choices" are part of fiscal responsibility, Pound says. "Somewhat unfairly, Rachel has borne the brunt on that."

• As a reminder, the chancellor's self-imposed fiscal rules mean by 2029/2030 she can only borrow to invest, rather than on funding day to day spending. She also has to ensure debt as a share of the national economy is falling by 2029. In May, Andy Burnham's campaign committed to sticking by these rules.

Image source, PA/Reuters

Keir Starmer met Andy Burnham for talks on Tuesday, as he seeks to ensure an "orderly" transition of power after announcing he is standing down as prime minister.

It is the first time the pair have met since Burnham won last week's Makerfield by-election. The hour-long meeting came as Starmer authorised access talks with civil servants for prospective Labour leadership candidates to prepare them for government.

Burnham is the only candidate to have emerged so far and if he does not face a challenger he could become prime minister as early as 16 or 17 July.

Access talks are normally granted to opposition party leaders ahead of a general election.

The PM's spokesman said the access talks will begin "as soon as possible" and before formal nominations for any Labour leadership contest close on 16 July.

The talks will focus on the "formation of government and key policy priorities", the PM's spokesman added, and would include security briefings.

• You can read more here

Image source, Reuters / House of Commons

When Keir Starmer faces MPs today, he might be quizzed over the long-awaited publication of the defence investment plan.

Despite his resignation as prime minister, the plan will be published ahead of next month's Nato summit.

That's despite the proposals triggering the resignations of two ministers earlier this month - Defence Secretary John Healey and Armed Forces Minister Al Carns (who could still enter the contest to replace Starmer - see our previous post).

The decision to press ahead with the defence plans could cause tension with Starmer's successor.

Andy Burnham and his team have been discussing that with Healey - who warned when he resigned that the PM's plan "well short of what is required".

Speaking on Tuesday in the House of Commons, Chancellor Rachel Reeves confirmed the plan would be published before the Nato summit n 7 July, and said it would "involve more money, spent more effectively and meet the scale of the challenges we face".

The prime minister's chief secretary Darren Jones might have ruled himself out of the Labour leadership contest - but former Armed Forces Minister Al Carns could still challenge Andy Burnham.

Speaking to BBC Newsnight on Tuesday, Carns insisted he is "pretty serious" in considering a leadership bid, but wants to "see behind Andy Burnham what the policies are" before making a final call.

As a reminder, leadership nominations open on 9 July and run until 16 July. Potential candidates have until then to amass the support of at least 81 Labour MPs to enter the race.

Asked whether he will back Burnham if he agrees with his policies, Carns tells BBC Newsnight: "I think that's a collective view across the Labour Party as a whole."

He explains the party wants to "get behind" Andy but says "we need to see that material before I can make a decision to back anyone".

Another complication removed for Burnhampublished at 07:26 BST

07:26 BST

Henry Zeffman
Chief political correspondent

Image source, PA Media

It was already highly likely that Andy Burnham would become the next prime minister and Labour leader.

Arguably Darren Jones’s announcement does not really change that - though he claimed in his interview with Sky News that he might have been able to reach the 81 MPs required for a full leadership election with party members over the summer.

But at the very least it removes a slight complication from Burnham’s path, allowing him to focus more on his plans for government, even if the former defence minister Al Carns is still publicly toying with his own challenge (we'll have more from Carns in our next post).

What’s striking is how candid Jones was that his big concern about Burnham was his plans for the economy.

He said that Burnham had reassured him. The former Manchester mayor is giving a speech on the economy next week which will in part represent his attempt to reassure other MPs.

In addition, this is why the question of who would be his chancellor is so central to the debate in Westminster.

Mitchell Labiak
BBC Business reporter

Image source, PA Media

Wes Streeting: Instead of pitching himself for the leadership role, Streeting has backed Burnham - and could be awarded the number two job in British politics.

Ed Miliband: Somesee Miliband as an inflation risk, believing his drive for net zero as energy secretary is partly responsible for the UK's high energy prices compared to other countries. But others think he could gain the confidence of the markets with his "intellect, experience, and authority".

Pat McFadden: He's held shadow Treasury jobs, been a business minister in a Labour government and is the current work and pensions secretary. His experience in the latter could help tackle welfare reform.

Yvette Cooper: She has years of experience in government, and served as chief secretary to the Treasury under Gordon Brown.

• Read more here

Harry Farley
Political correspondent

Image source, Reuters

The BBC understands that if Andy Burnham becomes prime minister, he is expected to replace Rachel Reeves as chancellor and offer her a more junior cabinet position.

Most Labour MPs assume Reeves will not continue in that role but, as first reported by the Financial Times,, external she is expected to be offered a more junior cabinet position.

A close ally of Burnham told the BBC: "Andy really respects Rachel and I'm confident he'll want her in his top team."

A spokesperson for Burnham said no decisions had been made.

Meanwhile, James Purnell - who served as a minister in Gordon Brown's government between 2007 and 2009 - is expected to be appointed Burnham's Downing Street chief of staff.

As well as working under Labour governments, Purnell has worked at the BBC in various roles including head of corporate planning and, more recently, director of radio and education. He left the corporation in 2020.

Henry Zeffman
Chief political correspondent

Image source, Reuters

Senior cabinet minister Darren Jones has endorsed Andy Burnham for the Labour leadership.

Despite speculation that he would run himself, the chief secretary to the prime minister said that "Andy Burnham is going to be the next prime minister".

Jones, a former deputy to Rachel Reeves at the Treasury, said he had had a "reassuring conversation" with Burnham about economic policy.

He suggested that a full leadership election would be a bad idea but said there were "definitely upwards of 100 MPs who have expressed concern either around a contest or economic policy or who were just feeling pretty depressed off the back of Keir Starmer resigning".

Jones's comments came in an interview with Sky News.

Adam Goldsmith
Live reporter

Image source, Reuters

As Keir Starmer prepares to face the Prime Minister's Questions dispatch box today, it's looking increasingly likely Andy Burnham will be the man to replace him.

Burnham could become prime minister by 16 or 17 July - which is now looking increasingly likely, as already-lukewarm bids from leadership rivals have cooled.

Chief Secretary to the Prime Minister Darren Jones was said to be considering a leadership bid. He now tells Sky News: "Andy Burnham is going to be the next prime minister."

"So the question for me," Jones asks, "is, well, what would the benefit be to the country and to the party of a leadership contest?"

Meanwhile former Defence Minister Al Carns told BBC Newsnight on Tuesday that he is considering a contest, and will need to see Burnham's policies "before I can make a decision to back him".

As Starmer prepares to take his final Commons bow, Rachel Reeves's time as chancellor may be limited - the BBC understands Burnham is likely to swap her into a more junior cabinet position if he becomes PM.

As we build up to PMQs at noon, we'll catch you up with a frantic week in politics, and look ahead to how the race to be the UK's next prime minister is playing out.