Joe Pike
Political correspondent

Are we seeing the Theresa May-ification of Keir Starmer?

Some supposed supporters of the PM think so: they believe his position is being bolstered by sympathy.

“Like Theresa May, he’s inherently decent, but politically inept,” says one MP who is backing Starmer. “But the way any leadership contest happens is important. He needs to be allowed to leave on his own terms.”

The sympathy a lot of MPs feel for the embattled prime minister mirrors what many Conservatives felt towards the end of Theresa May’s premiership.

In December 2018 she survived two confidence votes - one among Tory MPs and the other of the whole House of Commons - and it was another six months before she eventually stood down.

More than 110 Labour MPs have signed a statement arguing “this is no time for a leadership contest”. But not all of those MPs are enthusiastic supporters of the prime minister.

“I’ve not signed up to have him forever”, says one MP. “But the context is really important. I don’t want to be remembered for triggering the first Labour prime minister for 14 years.”

Image source, Getty Images

It's all starting to look a bit messypublished at 12:15 BST

12:15 BST

Henry Zeffman
Chief political correspondent at Downing Street

It’s just gone midday.

Wes Streeting’s allies believed he would have launched his leadership challenge by now.

Wes Streeting’s foes believed he would have launched his leadership challenge by now.

He has not.

That silence from the health secretary is becoming increasingly exasperating for lots of MPs on all sides of this shadow contest who would rather like some clarity.

What explains it? As Chris writes below, Streeting’s supporters claim he has the 80 MPs backing him that he needs to go to the Labour membership, but that they are waiting to see if members of the cabinet might urge Keir Starmer to quit.

Image source, Reuters

That claim is being met with, to put it lightly, extreme scepticism by other MPs. There is no sign as it stands of any movement from the cabinet.

Yes, many senior ministers have been close, personally and ideologically, to Streeting for years, but that is not the same as being willing to take out a sitting Labour leader on his behalf.

There are ministers I’ve heard from at different levels of seniority who would vote for him if there were a contest, but believe it’s on him to find the numbers among backbench MPs to force a challenge, and are frustrated by the drawn-out way he is approaching things.

It’s almost a week since Streeting - who let’s remember remains the cabinet minister responsible for the health service in England - has said anything in public.

It’s all starting to look a bit messy for him.

Keir Starmer will fight any leadership challenge mounted against him, Downing Street says.

The prime minister’s official spokesman says the “position hasn’t changed since he set that out on Monday”.

The spokesman was also asked if the PM thinks Wes Streeting has been a successful health secretary, and he says that Streeting has had a "very positive impact on people's lives".

Downing Street says Prime Minister Keir Starmer maintains confidence in Health Secretary Wes Streeting, and that his “position hasn’t changed” since Wednesday.

Asked whether Streeting remained in his cabinet post, Starmer’s official spokesman says: “Yes.”

Questioned on whether the PM had full confidence in him, the spokesperson says: “Yes, the position hasn’t changed.”

Iain Watson
Political correspondent

Around 160 Labour MPs haven’t publicly declared a view on a leadership contest.

Some who have said nothing publicly would like to see a balanced ticket - Streeting and a big beast from the soft left such as Rayner or preferably Burnham (if he gets a seat) as prime minister/deputy prime minister.

This could in turn convince Starmer to go without a contest, and avoid the charge of chaos.

The big caveat is I have no evidence that such discussions are taking place where they matter - among the potential candidates.

Some on the party’s soft left have been accusing Streeting supporters of telling MPs if they nominate him to get the ball rolling on a contest they can subsequently shift allegiance.

But the party’s rules would mean they couldn’t then nominate a different candidate.

So lots of activity but no resolution in SW1. And for the avoidance of doubt - we have no idea at this stage how the day will play out.

Image source, PA Media

Iain Watson
Political correspondent

Image source, EPA

If you are watching TV this morning you won’t see much activity in Downing Street - apart from a profusion of TV crews.

But away from the cameras there is a lot going on in Westminster.

Keir Starmer is in his Commons office, not No 10.

The calculation in his camp currently is that Wes Streeting hasn’t reached the crucial number of 81 supporters that would trigger a leadership contest.

Streeting supporters disagree.

This morning, the PM’s backers are contacting those that they think might be tempted by a Streeting candidacy.

The message is that a contest would plunge the party and country in to chaos - though I’d be surprised if there wasn’t also some less high minded horse trading.

There are reports that some MPs have had multiple calls from the Streeting camp to get his nomination over the line - though one MP on the party’s right seemed quite offended that they hadn’t been contacted at all.

Keir Starmer has spent the week fighting to save his premiership after four ministers quit and dozens of Labour MPs urged him to resign after last week's heavy election losses.

As a reminder, nearly 90 Labour MPs have said the PM should go or called for him to set out a timetable for his departure.

Over 150 MPs have indicated support for the PM or said it's not the right time for a leadership contest.

Chris Mason
Political editor

Things are now moving at lightning pace now - even though no one has declared yet.

Supporters of Wes Streeting say he has the numbers but such is the volatility around the prime minister, and what they claim he might do next, they are waiting for now.

Others are spitting about Andy Burnham, saying the mayor of Greater Manchester has made a huge fuss about his ambitions but still hasn’t found a seat.

A senior figure just said to me that ‘MPs are all losing their minds’ and what is happening is a ‘total mess.’

Their language was actually considerably punchier than that, but you get the gist.

Chris Mason
Political editor

I have been shown an email from HMRC to Angela Rayner’s lawyers that verifies that the tax authority regards the row over her stamp duty as closed.

HMRC also spell out in the email that Rayner will not face a penalty charge.

Image source, EPA

How HMRC classifies people who have paid wrong amount of taxpublished at 10:42 BST

10:42 BST

By Anthony Reuben

In her statement, former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner says she “welcomes HMRC’s conclusion, which has cleared me of any wrongdoing”, following an investigation into the amount of stamp duty she paid when buying a flat in Hove.

Rayner says she has now “paid every penny that I owed” and been “exonerated by HMRC of the accusation that I deliberately sought to avoid tax”. She adds that HMRC has accepted she took “reasonable care and acted in good faith, based on the expert advice I received”.

“Cleared of wrongdoing” is not the sort of language that HMRC uses on its website. It has four levels of classification for people who have not paid the right amount of tax., external

Rayner's statement would seem to indicate her case has been deemed to be in the bottom category, which means the tax authorities have concluded that she took “reasonable care” and should not pay a penalty.

The three categories which would lead to penalties are for those who are careless, those who deliberately pay the wrong amount and those who deliberately pay the wrong amount and then attempt to conceal it.

Hugh Pym
Health editor

Away from the political headlines, this morning we have had an update on some NHS figures - which come under Wes Streeting's brief as health secretary.

The government has hit an interim target for speeding up planned NHS treatment in England. The target was 65% of patients being treated within 18 weeks in March 2026.

The figure for that month out today showed 65.3% were treated in that time.

The main target is 92% by the end of this parliament. In March the overall waiting list in England fell from 7.2 million to 7.1 million, the lowest for three and a half years.

This looks like just the news Wes Streeting was hoping for on a day of intense speculation about a leadership bid.

There's still a long way to go to hit the 92% target by the time of the next election. But getting to the interim number on schedule will be seen by his supporters as proof of his record in trying to turn round the NHS.

Image source, Getty Images

There are a lot of political headlines to digest already this morning.

Here's the latest if you're just joining us:

This morning - amid speculation that Health Secretary Wes Streeting is preparing to launch a leadership challenge to Keir Starmer - former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner came out saying she has been "cleared" by HMRC after she initially failed to pay the correct stamp duty on a flat in Hove.

Rayner is on the left of the Labour Party and has called for Andy Burnham's return to Parliament.

Burnham, meanwhile, has pulled out of a regular appearance with the BBC today, citing the need for discussions around last week's elections results.

She has dropped a "news bomb" at the earliest possible moment, writes our political correspondent Joe Pike, while Chris Mason says that the political "jostling" is evident everywhere.

Starmer and his allies have repeatedly warned Labour MPs and ministers that any leadership challenge would plunge the UK into "chaos".

In an exclusive interview with the BBC, Chancellor Rachel Reeves warned against any leadership contest "when there is conflict in the world" and Labour's plan to grow the economy "is starting to bear fruit".

Rayner drops 'news bomb' at earliest possible momentpublished at 09:26 BST

09:26 BST

Joe Pike
Political correspondent

Image source, Reuters

Allies of Angela Rayner have confirmed that HMRC notified her of its conclusions on Tuesday.

That timing could arguably not have been better for the former deputy prime minister - at the very moment a possible leadership contest loomed.

The danger of overshadowing the King’s Speech meant all of Wednesday seemed to be off-limits for any major interventions on Labour’s future.

Angela Rayner’s team therefore dropped their news bomb as soon as possible on Thursday: at 6am just as Westminster was waking.

While she has committed to not directly challenging the prime minister, her Guardian interview was lukewarm about his future in No 10.

Asked whether the PM should step aside, Rayner replied: “Keir will have to reflect on that”.

As a politician who came up through the union movement, Angela Rayner will be well aware that all eleven of Labour’s affiliated trades unions have said they believe Keir Starmer will not lead the party into the next general election. But could she?

Chris Mason
Political editor

Image source, Getty Images

What we are witnessing this morning is the jostling on the expected start line of a race to be our next prime minister.

The jostling is evident everywhere.

From the prime minister's supporters, not least the Chancellor Rachel Reeves, telling BBC Breakfast that a contest would be "plunging the country into chaos at a time when there is conflict in the world, but also at a time when our plan to grow the economy is starting to bear fruit".

Then there are friends and allies of the Health Secretary Wes Streeting who expect his challenge to Keir Starmer to now be imminent, but with his rivals briefing that he has struggled to get the numbers of backers he requires.

Then the interviews the former Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner has done.

She is saying she has resolved the tax issue that cost her her job in government and she is now ready to "play my part" in the forthcoming anticipated debates about the Labour leadership.

Then there is Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, currently marooned outside Parliament and so unable to take part in any immediate leadership race unless he can demonstrate he can get a move on, find a seat, persuade the party to let him stand, and hope that the timeframe of any contest means he can play a part in it.

His weekly phone-in slot with Mike Sweeney on BBC Radio Manchester isn't going ahead this morning, which is rare.

• Read Chris Mason's analysis in full.

Speculation over a potential challenge to Keir Starmer's leadership continues to mount.

Wes Streeting's allies say he could try to launch a contest as early as today, while questions also remain over whether mayor of Greater Manchester Andy Burnham or ex-deputy leader Angela Rayner would stand.

But how would a leadership challenge work?

It is possible for Labour MPs unhappy with Starmer to trigger a leadership challenge.

But only if 81 of them - 20% of the Parliamentary Labour Party - agree to back a candidate.

That would trigger a contest, which other candidates could then join so long as they also receive 81 backers.

If Starmer remains as leader and a contest is triggered, he would automatically be on the ballot.

Here's how a leadership election would work in such a scenario:

The other way a Labour leadership challenge can be triggered is if the leader - currently Starmer - resigns.

If Starmer chooses to resign with immediate effect, a member of the cabinet would replace him in a caretaker capacity under Labour Party rules. He could also stay in post during a transition period before handing over to a successor.

Starmer has given no indication that he intends to do that, and has said instead that he wants to stay in the role. Last week he suggested quitting would "plunge the country into chaos".

• How would a Labour leadership contest work?

Joshua Nevett
Political reporter

Andy Burnham has a regular phone-in radio slot on BBC Radio Manchester and he was due to appear on presenter Mike Sweeney's programme on Thursday morning.

But we learned last night that Burnham has pulled out, as speculation mounts over a potential challenge to Prime Minister Keir Starmer's leadership.

A spokesperson for Burnham told the BBC: “As you know, Andy doesn’t like to miss the Hotseat.

“But this week, to get the best deal for Greater Manchester, he has to prioritise discussions arising from last week’s local elections.”

The election results in Greater Manchester were dire for Burnham’s party, as they were across England, Scotland and Wales, as Reform UK and the Green Party made major gains.

Image source, EPA

The Labour mayor of West Yorkshire says she had a "frank conversation" with Keir Starmer in Downing Street on Wednesday ahead of the King's Speech.

Tracy Brabin tells Radio 4's Today programme Labour "just are not moving fast enough" and that she told the prime minister the party has "to escalate the pace of change".

Brabin describes how the election results in Yorkshire were "catastrophic for the Labour Party" and adds that she "expects to see change" if Starmer is to remain as prime minister.

Pressed on whether she wants Starmer to stay in his job, Brabin says that there is currently not a leadership contest and that she has "no horse in this race".

The mayor, who was previously a minister in Starmer's shadow cabinet when she was an MP, adds that Labour "need to make sure the next two years are different".

Image source, PA Media

The UK public "might never forgive" the Labour Party if they were to hold a leadership contest now, says Treasury minister James Murray.

Asked on BBC Breakfast if triggering a leadership challenge would be irresponsible, he says: "I think it runs the risk that people might never forgive us if we turn inwards on ourselves."

He stresses "the importance of not putting stability that we brought to the economy at risk" and warns of a contest bringing "huge instablity".

Pressed further on the prospect of a leadership campaign, he says: "I don't think any of my colleagues should run a campaign, I don't think any of my colleagues should trigger leadership election."

Murray says those in his party in favour of a leadership change "should all take a deep breath and a step back".

Image source, Aaron Chown/PA Wire

Alongside her announcement about her tax affairs this morning, Angela Rayner has spoken to the Guardian and ITV News, as questions continue to swirl over a possible Labour leadership challenge.

Asked if she believes the prime minister should resign, she tells the Guardian: "Keir will have to reflect on that."

Rayner tells the paper the "pace of change hasn’t been enough for voters to see", and that "mistakes have really blown us off course and made voters doubt us".

When asked about whether she would run in any leadership election, she says "I’ll play my part in doing everything we possibly can to deliver the change," and will "keep pushing and pushing hard" in "whatever role" she plays.

She echoes this in an interview in ITV News: "I want to deliver as part of the team and, I've always said that it is a team effort."

When pressed further on whether she does want to become prime minister, she does not explicitly say no. Instead, she says: "I want us to pull together."

Rayner also denies making any deals with Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham for a potential Labour leadership race: "I'm not doing deals or anything like that."

Rayner's intervention threatens to distract from Streeting's movespublished at 08:01 BST

08:01 BST

Joe Pike
Political correspondent

Angela Rayner‘s intervention today has been both carefully choreographed and carefully calibrated.

The main message she seems to want to get across is that she’s back in the fray, because HMRC has cleared her of deliberate wrongdoing or carelessness over her tax affairs.

In recent days the ongoing uncertainty over her finances has led some natural pro-Rayner MPs on the ‘soft left’ of Labour to look elsewhere and seek out alternative potential successors to Keir Starmer.

The timing of her Guardian and ITV interviews - just as many allies of Wes Streeting expect him to mount a leadership challenge - reasserts her position and threatens to distract from the health secretary’s big move.

Secondly Angela Rayner confirms she is “not doing deals” and has not committed to support Andy Burnham. It remains unclear whether the Greater Manchester mayor even has a route back to parliament.

But thirdly, and perhaps most importantly, Rayner says “I would not trigger the prime minister”. She therefore would not directly challenge Starmer by finding 81 MPs to back her, but she could run in an eventual contest to become Labour leader and prime minister.

Angela Rayner’s intervention suggests there may be a rather full field of candidates if a leadership campaign does begin.

Yet with Labour MPs split on both whether the prime minister should be replaced, and by whom, that contest is not yet inevitable.

Image source, EPA