Next PM may have to reopen defence spending debatepublished at 16:15 BST

16:15 BST

By Ben Chu, policy and analysis correspondent, BBC Verify

The government’s Defence Investment Plan (DIP) was expected to be published earlier this month but the former Defence Secretary, John Healey, resigned in advance saying it “falls well short of what is required for defence and the country at this dangerous time”.

In his resignation letter Healey said the plan would have increased UK defence spending from 2.6% of GDP in 2027 to 2.68% by 2030.

This 0.08% of GDP increase would be equivalent to an extra £2.4bn a year in today’s money.

Healey argued the UK should be aiming for 3% of GDP by 2030 which would imply an increase of £12bn a year in today’s money on 2027 levels.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves has today recommitted to publish the final DIP by the time of the next Nato summit on 7 July at the latest.

And, despite the appointment of Dan Jarvis as the new defence secretary there has, so far, been no suggestion from No 10 Downing Street that extra cash will be found relative to what was previously planned.

So if that happened the next prime minister - if they took office after 7 July - would have to re-open the military financial settlement if they wanted to increase defence spending beyond what is outlined in the current DIP.

Image source, EPA/Shutterstock

During Andy Burnham's Makerfield by-election campaign, he set out a number of policy ideas.

He committed to the economic rules set by Chancellor Rachel Reeves - and said he'd keep Labour's manifesto promise not to increase the main rates of income tax, VAT, or National Insurance.

But there are still many areas of policy that Burnham has not covered. And he's faced some questions over it.

Reform's Nigel Farage has criticised Burnham for not having a mandate - especially if he becomes prime minister uncontested. Farage also told BBC Radio 4's Today programme, "I have absolutely no idea where Andy Burnham stands on anything".

And Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch has said questions remain over what the new Makerfield MP's policies would be on defence and welfare.

Within the Labour Party, MP Nadia Whittome has supported a leadership contest - saying that candidates should have to set out their policies "transparently" and be "scrutinised".

But for others, like minister Nick Thomas-Symonds and MP Jo White, the priority is getting a new leader into power. And Labour peer Baroness Margaret Hodge says while it's not ideal, she'd rather see a new team in position as soon as possible - followed by Andy Burnham making his plans clear.

Andy Burnham is expected in Clapham on Wednesday ahead of a council by-election in Clapham Park on 9 July.

The new Makerfield MP and possible new prime minister is scheduled to campaign with Labour's council candidate Louie Summerville-Sutherland, according to the Lambeth Labour website.

Henry Zeffman
Chief political correspondent

Keir Starmer and Andy Burnham held a meeting earlier today.

It was the first time the two men had spoken since Burnham’s victory in the Makerfield by-election on Friday.

The meeting was first reported by the Times.

Judy in Bracknell says she is "fuming" because she wanted Keir Starmer to stay but argues against a general election for the sake of "continuity".

But James in Reading says an early election is needed in order "to know the mettle of the person who will be making judgements" as prime minister.

"We are not stress-testing the people who ultimately get the job," he tells 5 Live.

John in Solihull says a new rule should be brought in altogether, one that would mean any new, unelected prime minister must go to the country within 12 months of entering office.

"We can't go on average one or two prime ministers a year...the system is broken," he says.

Peter Barnes
BBC political analyst

Each party has its own rules for electing a new leader when the old one resigns.

For the Labour Party, the first stage of the process is for potential candidates to seek the support of other MPs. The current rules are that they need nominations from 20% of the parliamentary party in the House of Commons – 81 MPs – as well as backing either from individual constituency parties or affiliated organisations including trade unions.

If only one candidate reaches the required threshold they become the new leader without a full contest.

That’s what happened in 2007, for example, when Gordon Brown took over from Tony Blair.

If more than one candidate is nominated it goes to a vote of party members and affiliated supporters. That happened in 2020 when Keir Starmer beat Rebecca Long-Bailey and Lisa Nandy to be elected leader, replacing Jeremy Corbyn.

• Jess Phillips and Emily Thornberry also ran for Labour's leadership in 2020, but did not win enough support to proceed to the final ballot.

Image source, EPA/Shutterstock

Al Carns

• Resigned as armed forces minister amid a dispute with Prime Minister Keir Starmer over military funding
• Speaking to journalists today, Carns says a decision to run for prime minister would be based on "multiple factors"
• Carns is currently MP for Birmingham Selly Oak, and before entering politics he had a 24-year military career - which included serving with the Royal Marines in Afghanistan

Image source, Reuters

Darren Jones

• Was given a key No 10 role by Keir Starmer in September 2025 when he was appointed chief secretary to the prime minister
• Jones has risen through the ranks since he was first elected as the MP for Bristol North West in 2017

• After Starmer's resignation, some MPs are urging Jones - a close ally of Starmer - to stand. It is considered unlikely, but Jones is understood not to have ruled it out

Image source, PA Media

Other mentions:

• Former Health Secretary Wes Streeting had stated his intention to run for the leadership when he resigned from cabinet in May, but has since encouraged Labour MPs to back Burnham's bid for No 10
• Angela Rayner, Starmer's former deputy prime minister, could return to front-line politics after she said she was "exonerated" over claims she had "deliberately sought to avoid tax". But she has not made any move to challenge Burnham

Labour to press on with controversial defence plan after Starmer's resignationpublished at 14:14 BST

14:14 BST

Henry Zeffman
Chief political correspondent

The decision in government to press ahead with the Defence Investment Plan is notable not only because it is long-awaited, but also because it will raise questions about whether Andy Burnham or any other leadership contenders have different views about what should be in it.

After all Al Carns, who is publicly toying with standing, resigned as a defence minister earlier this month in protest at the plan.

It will be fascinating to see whether over the course of the day there are any signs from Burnham’s camp or elsewhere of resistance to the government pressing ahead with this.

Brian Wheeler
Political reporter

Image source, EPA/Shutterstock

Andy Burnham is set to receive briefings from civil servants on taking over as prime minister, as Keir Starmer seeks to ensure an “orderly” transition of power.

Downing Street says the outgoing prime minister has authorised access talks to begin with “prospective candidates” to be the next Labour leader.

Access talks are normally granted to opposition party leaders ahead of a general election.

The talks with Labour leadership candidates will focus on the “formation of government and key policy priorities”, the PM’s spokesman adds, and would include security briefings.

The spokesman says talks will begin “as soon as possible” and before formal nominations for any Labour leadership contest close on 16 July.

He says he did not know if Burnham had formally requested access talks – but the former Greater Manchester mayor is the only leadership candidate to have emerged so far.

Cabinet minister Darren Jones and former Armed Forces Minister Al Carns are being considered as potential candidates by some Labour MPs worried about installing Burnham in No 10 without a contest. But it is not clear whether they will gather enough support to get on the ballot paper.

One of the most pressing issues facing the next prime minister will be the government's Defence Investment Plan.

John Healey resigned as defence secretary earlier this month, claiming the draft government proposals would take UK defence spending to 2.68% of GDP by 2030, falling "well short" of the 3% target he considered necessary.

Speaking to the Times a day after Healey's resignation, Andy Burnham said alongside the 10-year approach to defence and security, there needed to be reform of public investment and procurement.

He told the newspaper that this would reduce the welfare bill by bringing recipients into the workforce, ensuring more money was available for defence.

"I am not squeamish about saying that the plan would be to reduce the welfare bill," Burnham said.

Image source, House of Commons

More from the House of Commons, where Shadow Defence Secretary James Cartlidge says the Defence Investment Plan (DIP) should be the "top item" for Andy Burnham if he becomes prime minister.

Cartlidge says the government has "dithered and delayed" around publishing the funding proposal, which has been a flashpoint for the Starmer government.

Not knowing who will be the next prime minister creates "massive uncertainties" for the defence industry, Cartlidge says.

He adds he was "incredibly worried" by John Healey's resignation as defence secretary earlier this month - saying that warfare is changing fast, and the DIP needs to be implemented as soon as possible.

Image source, House of Commons

We've just heard from Chancellor Rachel Reeves, who says in the Commons that she is "confident" the Defence Investment Plan (DIP) will be published before the upcoming Nato summit - which begins on 7 July.

She adds that the plan "will meet the scale of the challenges facing the country".

Reeves tells MPs she met on Monday with Defence Secretary Dan Jarvis and Chief of the Defence Staff Richard Knighton "to talk through" the plan.

"It will involve more money spent more effectively and will meet the scale of challenges facing our country," she says.

• Reminder: Former Defence Secretary John Healey resigned in protest earlier this month, saying that the proposed DIP "falls well short of what is required for defence and the country at this dangerous time".

Brian Wheeler
Political reporter

The government has announced that there will be no new “major policies” or spending decisions during the transition to a new prime minister.

Keir Starmer told a cabinet meeting this morning that he wanted an orderly transition of power and he would give his full support to his successor.

The head of the civil service has written to the heads of all departments to tell them to follow the established procedure for a change of PM.

“The prime minister has agreed that there will be no new major policy or spending commitments initiated during this period,” his official spokesman told reporters earlier.

But – crucially – this does not appear to include the much-delayed Defence Investment Plan, which ministers are insisting will be published before the Nato summit on 7 July.

Asked if the ban on new policy announcements meant the government faced paralysis, the spokesman said ministers remain in place and “the normal business of government continues”.

Image source, EPA/Shutterstock

Former Armed Forces Minister Al Carns says he has not ruled out launching a leadership campaign and the decision is based on "multiple factors".

Speaking to journalists at the Foreign Press Association in London, he says: "I just need to see and buy into that vision and that policy and then we’ll see where we go from there."

Carns says Burnham would "listen" to the Parliamentary Labour Party and "he’ll take advice on policy ideas".

"And hopefully he’ll be able to drive them forward at a pace and with the boldness and courageousness that is required to keep that social cohesion and make us successful in the 2029 general election."

But he adds: "A vision without a plan is a dream and if you don’t have it, it can turn into a nightmare pretty quickly."

Who might be chancellor if Rachel Reeves follows Starmer out of Downing Street?published at 12:19 BST

12:19 BST

Mitchell Labiak
BBC Business reporter

Image source, PA Media

As Keir Starmer prepares to leave Downing Street, there is speculation that his Chancellor Rachel Reeves may follow him - if Starmer's successor opts for someone new. Here's some of the names believed to be in the running for the job.

Wes Streeting: Instead of pitching himself for the leadership role, Streeting has backed Burnham and could be awarded the number two job in British politics for his loyalty.

Ed Miliband: Somesee Miliband as an inflation risk, believing his drive for net zero as energy secretary is partly responsible for the UK's high energy prices compared to other countries. But others think he could gain the confidence of the markets with his "intellect, experience, and authority".

Pat McFadden: He's held shadow Treasury jobs, been a business minister in a Labour government and is the current work and pensions secretary. His experience in the latter could help tackle welfare reform.

Yvette Cooper: She has years of experience in government, and served as chief secretary to the Treasury under Gordon Brown.

• We've more on the list of candidates - and how Rachel Reeves might stay on in the role - in our news story

Manish Pandey
Live reporter

Image source, EPA/Shutterstock

• Starmer announced his resignation shortly after 09:30 BST on Monday, confirming that a new leader would be in place by 1 September - though it could be sooner if there's no contest
• In an emotional speech, he paid tribute to his family - and later in the evening, Starmer and his wife, Victoria, hosted drinks for staff in the No 10 garden
• Meanwhile, Andy Burnham - after boarding a train from Manchester Piccadilly to London Euston to be sworn in as MP - announced his intention to run to replace Starmer - but told the BBC it was too early to think about calling an election
• By this point the former Greater Manchester mayor had gained the support of former Health Secretary Wes Streeting, and was later pictured surrounded by hundreds of Labour MPs at Westminster Hall

• So far today, the big question is - who will be the next PM and how they should be chosen?
• Darren Jones and Al Carns are weighing up whether to challenge Burnham, but, for now, it feels unlikely either would get the required 81 nominations, says our chief political correspondent
• Some Labour MPs have been calling for a contest, while others say it's important to get a new team in place quickly

• Ministers have been at Downing Street this morning for the first cabinet meeting since Starmer's resignation. The mood in the room will have been radically different, writes Henry Zeffman

Questions multiply for the man tipped to replace Starmerpublished at 11:05 BST

11:05 BST

Chris Mason
Political editor

Image source, Reuters

Andy Burnham would be the UK's fifth prime minister in four years.

The photographs of the new MP for Makerfield beaming in the presence of hundreds of Labour MPs sit alongside the images of Sir Keir and his wife, both emotional, in illustrating that brutal transfer of power.

But after the theatre and drama of Monday, the hard questions for the Labour Party and for Burnham beckon. And some are already worried. They fret about what all this looks like.

A bloke who wasn't even a parliamentary candidate at the last general election and wasn't even an MP this time last week, could be prime minister by this time next month.

"And remember he's run for the Labour leadership twice before and lost," one minister pointed out to me, adding: "And not only that. He lost to two losers – Ed Miliband and Jeremy Corbyn."

So what is driving Burnham's current magnetism? In short, he is seen as a winner and Starmer is seen as a loser.

And not just any winner – a winner against Reform UK, in a part of the country where Reform did very well in the English local elections last month.

Without question, Burnham didn't choose an easy seat to contest to return to Parliament. But it is also true to say that he is very popular in Greater Manchester and his popularity remains largely untested beyond.

"It feels like lots of Labour MPs are dashing for a train that's about to leave the station, but they haven't any idea where it's going," is how one figure put it to me, suggesting there is still plenty the party and the country doesn't yet know about Burnham's prospectus for government.

• Read on for more on Andy Burnham's plans if he enters No 10

Henry Zeffman
Chief political correspondent

Cabinet ministers are just beginning to leave the regular weekly cabinet meeting - one of Keir Starmer’s last.

This is usually a big moment in the week of the government, for signalling the prime minister’s priorities and bringing secretaries of state together.

The mood today will have been radically different, no doubt.

Power has now drained from this cabinet. Several will be hopeful of keeping their jobs - indeed any job - under the new regime, but the numerical reality is that many of them will be sent to the backbenches.

And in many parts of government, business is likely to slow as ministers and civil servants alike prepare for what comes next.

Image source, Getty Images

We're now seeing members of Keir Starmer's cabinet leave Downing Street.

We'll keep you updated on any statements we get from Tuesday morning's meeting, which lasted just over an hour.

Image source, EPA/Shutterstock

As we've been reporting, Darren Jones, a senior cabinet minister, and Al Carns, who quit as a defence minister a few weeks ago, are both considering a leadership challenge.

Lord Philip Hunt, who served alongside Andy Burnham in Tony Blair and Gordon Brown's cabinets, says "Andy is a lovely guy" but "I really love Al Carns and I think he'd be an exceptional choice as leader".

Speaking to BBC Radio Ulster, Hunt says Darren Jones is also "a very credible candidate".

"He [Burnham] was a great colleague, friendly, personable, bright, a very good communicator as we can all see," he says.

Hunt endorsed Burham, saying the "entire Labour party wants him to succeed", but added that "stepping up to the top job brings its own pressures", and he would face a "very tough challenge" if he becomes the next Labour leader.