Does win at Man Utd save Leeds?
- Published
Getting 36 points on the board should offer a huge psychological boost for Leeds.
Teams finishing on 36 or more points in each of the past nine Premier League seasons have avoided relegation.
In the 20-team Premier League era, starting from the 1995-96 season, the average number of points earned by the team finishing 18th is 35.53.
In those 30 seasons of 38 games, 36 points has ensured survival 60% of the time.
The rate of survival increases to 80% for 38 points, 90% for 40 points and 100% for 43 or more points.
So does that mean Leeds have virtually guaranteed survival this season?
Not really.
That is because this season is on track to be the toughest to survive for a decade.
According to Opta's supercomputer, Tottenham are now favourites to go down at 48.7%. But Spurs, sitting 18th, are on 30 points and projected to finish on 37 by Opta - meaning 38 points would be needed for survival.
West Ham, currently 17th, hold the record for the team relegated with the most points in the 20-team era - in 2002-03 when they picked up 42 points but still went down.
"The reality is that performance-wise we should already [have] far more than 40 points," Daniel Farke said.
"This team has performed over the whole season with unbelievable consistency.
"But we are on 36 points, a few more points are needed. For now, three points closer but nothing is achieved yet."
