In the next few moments, we'll hear whether the US Federal Reserve has decided to raise interest rates.

They're currently set at 3.5%-3.75%, and haven't been hiked in three years.

We'll bring you their decision right here and explain what it means for your money.

We're then expecting to hear from the chair of the Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh, who will explain more about the central bank's decision and likely give his assessment of the health of the US economy. You'll be able to watch that live at the top of this page.

Michael Race
Business and economics reporter in Washington DC

Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh has said his goal is "for there to be no politics" in the central bank's decision making.

He's stressed the importance of the Fed's independence, but keeping the politics out of interest rate decisions will be tricky when President Donald Trump disagrees with the strategy and the midterm elections are looming.

Image source, Getty Images

Michael Race
Business and economics reporter in Washington DC

The last time the Federal Reserve decided to raise interest rates was more than three years ago, in July 2023, when it hiked its policy rate to between 5.25% and 5.5%.

Inflation (a reminder here of what that is) back then was actually lower than it is now - 3.2% vs 3.4%.

Since the summer of 2023, there rates have been lowered, to the current range of 3.5% to 3.75%, but they have been held at the same level fives times since the decision to cut was made back in December 2025.

Francisco Velasquez
Business reporter

Image source, Bloomberg via Getty

We're less than half an hour away from the Fed's announcement, but whether the bank decides to move interest rates or stay put - your wallet could feel the ripple effects.

Here's a look at how you'd feel it most immediately:

• If rates go up... Borrowing gets pricier. New mortgage rates, credit card APRs, and personal loans jump. At the same time, your savings account earns more money
• And if rates are cut... It becomes cheaper to take out a new loan or buy a home, but you earn less interest on savings
• But if they hold... It stays expensive to borrow, but your savings yields stay high

Beyond your personal finances, holding rates steady carries broader risks for the economy. Brent Wilsey, chief investment officer at Wilsey Asset Management, warns that approach "could surprise stocks".

It could also “damage the Fed’s credibility” and look like the bank is simply “caving to political pressure,” he adds.

Michael Race
Business and economics reporter

Image source, Getty Images

The rising cost of living for US households has been driven largely by the cost of oil increasing worldwide, due to the US-Iran war causing supply and trade disruptions.

The price for a barrel of Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil prices, is around $108 following recent escalations in the conflict - this directly increases gasoline and diesel prices due to it being the key ingredient of motor fuel.

As prices at the pumps push up costs for drivers, they also add costs to haulage and delivery companies which transport goods.

Such costs can be passed down to consumers through steeper prices for food and other staples, pushing up the overall cost of living.

• A reminder: the cost of living in the US is measured by inflation, which looks at how the prices of goods and services are rising

Image source, Getty Images

As we've been reporting, the US central bank can raise interest rates as a tool to tame inflation. But what does that actually mean?

Inflation is the word used to describe price rises over time.

The figure is generally measured on an annual basis, comparing prices now with what they were last year.

Latest figures show inflation in the year to August was 3.4%, meaning prices on average are now 3.4% more expensive than they were the year before.

Prices usually always rise, but most central banks like to keep it at a controlled rate of 2% each year.

This prevents what is known as deflation, which is when prices keep going down.

While cheaper prices might sound like a good thing at first, it can have a detrimental effect on jobs and wages.

Michael Race
Business and economics reporter in Washington DC

Image source, Getty Images

Interest rates are the Federal Reserve’s main tool in trying to maintain the annual rate of inflation at - or close to - its target of 2%.

Inflation in US has been running above that level for some time and latest figures show consumer prices rose 3.4% from August 2025, to this year.

Fed chair Kevin Warsh has said "the Fed's predominant focus right now should be on prices" - fuelling expectations of a rate hike.

The theory behind increasing interest rates to tackle inflation is that by making borrowing more expensive, more people will cut back on spending and that leads to demand for goods falling and price rises easing.

The rate range set by the Fed heavily influences the borrowing rates set by banks and other lenders.

The higher level in recent years has meant people are paying more to borrow money for things like mortgages and credit cards, but savers have also received better returns.

There’s always a balance between raising rates to tackle inflation. High rates can lead to lower inflation, but there’s a risk it can lead to businesses holding off of investing and creating jobs, and stunt economic growth.

Michael Race
Business and economics reporter

No one will know for sure until 14:00 EDT (19:00 BST) when the Fed announces its decision, but traders have been increasingly betting on a hike from 3.5%-3.75% to 3.75-4%.

According to data from CME Group, Federal Reserve watchers think there’s more than a 90% chance of a rate increase this afternoon.

If it happens, it means rates will be raised for the first time in more than three years.

Sakshi Venkatraman
US reporter

Many American voters have affordability on their minds right now. But what can the central bank do about it?

The Federal Reserve, or Fed, helps set borrowing costs across the economy, by deciding what to charge banks to borrow.

When it increases that key interest rate, which is what could happen today, consumer banks typically follow suit, making borrowing and taking out loans more expensive for everyone.

That means higher monthly payments on debt, like credit cards and car loans, for Americans. But it also means higher returns on savings.

Image source, Getty Images

The Federal Reserve had held US interest rates between 3.5% and 3.75% since the new chair Kevin Warsh was sworn in at the central bank in May.

At Warsh’s first meeting in charge, Fed governors were split on whether to keep rates steady or increase them in a bid to tame inflation, which has gone up during the US-Israel war in Iran.

US President Donald Trump pushed Warsh's predecessor, Jerome Powell, to cut interest rates. And during the nomination process, Trump made clear he expected Warsh to fulfil his demand for lower rates.

But, with inflation in the year to August running at 3.4%, (well above the Fed’s target of 2%), and uncertainty surrounding Trump's deal to end the war with Iran, the Fed's rate-setting committee had decided to keep them steady.

Johanna Chisholm
Live page editor

Image source, Reuters

Today we find out if the US Federal Reserve will hike its key interest rate, which would mark the first time it's done so in over three years.

(For context on just how long ago that was, the last hike was around the same time that Barbenheimer fever was sweeping cinemas across the globe).

A rise in the federal interest rate is designed to combat inflation - but it could mean higher borrowing costs for everyday Americans.

Speaking last month, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh said that “we must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed. Otherwise, we have work to do.”

When do we find out? At 14:00 EDT (18:00 GMT). Warsh will then provide remarks on the bank’s decision half an hour later. We'll have it all here.