Justin Webb's America

Politics of race

• Justin Webb
• 24 Jan 08, 12:13 AM GMT

CHARLESTON, SOUTH CAROLINA: The Dick Morris thesis on South Carolina is fast becoming a kind of accepted wisdom in the media world. (He suggests that Barack Obama has been trapped into going for a big win in South Carolina that establishes him as The Black Candidate and destroys his chances everywhere.)

It can only be true, of course, if the Iowa victory (in a 97% white state) was an abberation, which it may well have been for a whole host of reasons. But talking to African Americans in Charleston (where I am at the moment), there is still plenty of optimism that the racial aspect of his candidacy need not be fatal.

Trouble is, of course, that no poll can suggest whether or not they are right because of the obvious risk of people lying. In this election - with 20% of Californian Democrats undecided - I cannot really see how Mr Morris can be so sure.

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