Crewe: By-elections don't change governments. However, how parties react to by-elections can change governments.
The self-proclaimed "heir to Blair" is trying to use the Crewe and Nantwich result to declare New Labour dead and at the same time he is trying to claim leadership of the Blair coalition for himself.
"I think what happened was that, for Labour, it was the end of being the party of aspiration, it was the end of being the party of opportunity: it was the end of New Labour."
David Cameron knows that what brought him victory this morning was the willingness of non-Tories to give him a chance or, at least, to lend him their vote. Expect him to continue his strategy of "love bombing" (as they call it in Tory HQ) those who traditionally protest by voting Lib Dem.
Gordon Brown's response has been a version of that old Clinton cliche "It's the economy, stupid". He's promising action to relieve the financial pressure voters are feeling. One cabinet minister told me that he's got to stop talking about the need for "a five-year tractor plan" and promising that "whatever happens you get tractors" - in other words, less talk about the long term and more action now.
The danger for the prime minister is this. If, once he's told people he's listening, and once he's told them he feels their hurt, and once he takes action, things don't get better for Labour some may conclude that "It's the leadership, stupid". Another cabinet minister shocked me by comparing Mr Brown with Michael Foot and expressing regret that the party had never had the courage to remove Foot.
There will be no leadership challenge now. There may never be one. If, however, Gordon Brown doesn't learn the right lessons from this by-election he would be unwise to assume that no-one would dare try.
Be in no doubt. If David Cameron becomes prime minister many will look back at the vote in Crewe and Nantwich as the moment they first believed it was possible.
Not only is this the first Tory by-election gain from Labour in 30 years, it is on a swing that matches those secured by Ted Heath and Margaret Thatcher before they reached No 10.
It comes less than a year after what was billed as Labour's moment of "renewal" when Gordon Brown succeeded Tony Blair. It comes just weeks after the prime minister responded to crushing defeats in the local elections by telling voters he felt their hurt before unveiling an unexpected tax cut and his legislative programme for the year ahead.
So, what is left to do now? A reshuffle? It would, most likely, be dismissed as moving the deckchairs on the Titanic. Ditching the captain then? Certainly that is being discussed by many Labour MPs - even some in the cabinet - but it stll looks unlikely - for now. A change of policy? That is where the debate will now focus with one senior minister telling me that it's time tear up what they referred to as "Gordon's five-year tractor plans" and take action now to ease the financial pain many are feeling - if necessary by postponing investment in hospitals and schools to pay for it.
Some in Labour will comfort themselves with the memory that Neil Kinnock was pretty good at winning by-elections but still couldn't win a general election. It is not likely to comfort very many.
Attempts will be made to talk up and talk down the Tories' victory tonight. You can judge for yourself with this handy guide to previous by-election swings.
The Tories will say that this is the biggest swing from Labour to the Tories in more than 30 years and in line with the swings that were followed by Ted Heath and Margaret Thatcher becoming prime minister:
Lab to Con by election swings
- Warwick and Leamington 1968 - 18.2%
- Brighton Pavillion 1969 - 17.9%
- Ashfield - 1977 - 20.8%
- Walsall North - 1976 - 17.3%
In Ilford North 1978, the last by-election gain from Labour to the Tories, the swing was 7%.
The opposition parties wll, on the other hand, point out that they've had much bigger swings in by-elections:
Con to Lib Dem by election swings
- Christchurch 1993 - 35%
- Newbury 1993 - 28%
- Ribble Valley 1991 - 25%
Con to Lab by election swings
- Dudley West 94 - 29%
- SE Staffs - 96 - 22%
- Mid Staffs 89 - 21%
We have just heard the turnout - it's 58.2% - that's very high and confirms that the Tory vote has come out in force.
Party number crunchers are predicting a swing from Labour to Tory of around 17% - that's in line with the swing to New Labour in the last by-election before Tony Blair became prime minister and would lead to a majority of 8,000 or more.
There has also been a swing to the Lib Dems of around 8% - enough, their people say, to win around 20 Labour seats. They are putting a brave face on the fact that for the first time in many many years it's the Conservatives not the Lib Dems who are the by-election kings.
